Near Real-Time Disturbance Detection in Terrestrial Ecosystems Using Satellite Image Time Series: Drought Detection in Somalia

Near real-time monitoring of ecosystem disturbances is critical for addressing impacts on carbon dynamics, biodiversity, and socio-ecological processes. Satellite remote sensing enables cost-effective and accurate monitoring at frequent time steps over large areas. Yet, generic methods to detect disturbances within newly captured satellite images are lacking. We propose a generic time series based disturbance detection approach by modelling stable historical behaviour to enable detection of abnormal changes within newly acquired data. Time series of vegetation greenness provide a measure for terrestrial vegetation productivity over the last decades covering the whole world and contain essential information related land cover dynamics and disturbances. Here, we assess and demonstrate the method by (1) simulating time series of vegetation greenness data from satellite data with different amount of noise, seasonality and disturbances representing a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems, (2) applying it to real satellite greenness image time series between February 2000 and July 2011 covering Somalia to detect drought related vegetation disturbances. First, simulation results illustrate that disturbances are successfully detected in near real-time while being robust for seasonality and noise. Second, major drought related disturbance corresponding with most drought stressed regions in Somalia are detected from mid 2010 onwards and confirm proof-of-concept of the method. The method can be integrated within current operational early warning systems and has the potential to detect a wide variety of disturbances (e.g. deforestation, flood damage, etc.). It can analyse in-situ or satellite data time series of biophysical indicators from local to global scale since it is fast, does not depend on thresholds or definitions and does not require time series gap filling.early warning, real-time monitoring, global change, disturbance, time series, remote sensing, vegetation and climate dynamics

Desertification

IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND (SRCCL) Chapter 3: Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystem

Remote Sensing of Hydro-Meteorology

Flood/drought, risk management, and policy: decision-making under uncertainty. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impact on human–environment systems. Regional and nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme events. Detection and prediction of hydrometeorological extremes with observational and model-based approaches. Vulnerability and impact assessment for adaptation to climate change

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Assessing water availability in Mediterranean regions affected by water conflicts through MODIS data time series analysis

Water scarcity is a widespread problem in arid and semi-arid regions such as the western Mediterranean coastal areas. The irregularity of the precipitation generates frequent droughts that exacerbate the conflicts among agriculture, water supply and water demands for ecosystems maintenance. Besides, global climate models predict that climate change will cause Mediterranean arid and semi-arid regions to shift towards lower rainfall scenarios that may exacerbate water conflicts. The purpose of this study is to find a feasible methodology to assess current and monitor future water demands in order to better allocate limited water resources. The interdependency between a vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), precipitation (current and future), and surface water resources availability in two watersheds in southeastern Spain with serious difficulties in meeting water demands was investigated. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI and LST products (as proxy of drought), precipitation maps (generated from climate station records) and reservoir storage gauging information were used to compute times series anomalies from 2001 to 2014 and generate regression images and spatial regression models. The temporal relationship between reservoir storage and time series of satellite images allowed the detection of different and contrasting water management practices in the two watersheds. In addition, a comparison of current precipitation rates and future precipitation conditions obtained from global climate models suggests high precipitation reductions, especially in areas that have the potential to contribute significantly to groundwater storage and surface runoff, and are thus critical to reservoir storage. Finally, spatial regression models minimized spatial autocorrelation effects, and their results suggested the great potential of our methodology combining NDVI and LST time series to predict future scenarios of water scarcity.Published versio

Advances in Remote Sensing-based Disaster Monitoring and Assessment

Remote sensing data and techniques have been widely used for disaster monitoring and assessment. In particular, recent advances in sensor technologies and artificial intelligence-based modeling are very promising for disaster monitoring and readying responses aimed at reducing the damage caused by disasters. This book contains eleven scientific papers that have studied novel approaches applied to a range of natural disasters such as forest fire, urban land subsidence, flood, and tropical cyclones

Vegetation Drought Response Index An Integration of Satellite, Climate, and Biophysical Data

Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate in most parts of the world (Wilhite, 2000) that adversely affects vegetation conditions and can have significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, food security, human health, water resources, and the economy. For example, in the United States, 14 billion-dollar drought events occurred between 1980 and 2009 (NCDC, 2010), with a large proportion of the losses coming from the agricultural sector in the form of crop yield reductions and degraded hay/pasture conditions. During the 2002 drought, Hayes et al. (2004) found that many individual states across the United States experienced more than $1 billion in agriculture losses associated with both crops and livestock. The impact of drought on vegetation can have serious water resource implications as the use of finite surface and groundwater supplies to support agricultural crop production competes against other sectoral water interests (e.g., environmental, commercial, municipal, and recreation). Drought-related vegetation stress can also have various ecological impacts. Prime examples include widespread piñon pine tree die-off in the southwest United States due to protracted severe drought stress and associated bark beetle infestations (Breshears et al., 2005) and the geographic shift of a forest-woodland ecotone in this region in response to severe drought in the mid-1950s (Allen and Breshears, 1998). Tree mortality in response to extended drought periods has also been observed in other parts of the western United States (Guarin and Taylor, 2005), as well as in boreal (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006), temperate (Fensham and Holman, 1999), and tropical (Williamson et al., 2000) forests. Droughts have also served as a catalyst for changes in wildfire activity (Swetnam and Betancourt, 1998; Westerling et al., 2006) and invasive plant species establishment (Everard et al., 2010)