A hybrid neuro--wavelet predictor for QoS control and stability

For distributed systems to properly react to peaks of requests, their adaptation activities would benefit from the estimation of the amount of requests. This paper proposes a solution to produce a short-term forecast based on data characterising user behaviour of online services. We use \emph{wavelet analysis}, providing compression and denoising on the observed time series of the amount of past user requests; and a \emph{recurrent neural network} trained with observed data and designed so as to provide well-timed estimations of future requests. The said ensemble has the ability to predict the amount of future user requests with a root mean squared error below 0.06\%. Thanks to prediction, advance resource provision can be performed for the duration of a request peak and for just the right amount of resources, hence avoiding over-provisioning and associated costs. Moreover, reliable provision lets users enjoy a level of availability of services unaffected by load variations

Generating dynamic higher-order Markov models in web usage mining

Markov models have been widely used for modelling users’ web navigation behaviour. In previous work we have presented a dynamic clustering-based Markov model that accurately represents second-order transition probabilities given by a collection of navigation sessions. Herein, we propose a generalisation of the method that takes into account higher-order conditional probabilities. The method makes use of the state cloning concept together with a clustering technique to separate the navigation paths that reveal differences in the conditional probabilities. We report on experiments conducted with three real world data sets. The results show that some pages require a long history to understand the users choice of link, while others require only a short history. We also show that the number of additional states induced by the method can be controlled through a probability threshold parameter

Computing the entropy of user navigation in the web

Navigation through the web, colloquially known as "surfing", is one of the main activities of users during web interaction. When users follow a navigation trail they often tend to get disoriented in terms of the goals of their original query and thus the discovery of typical user trails could be useful in providing navigation assistance. Herein, we give a theoretical underpinning of user navigation in terms of the entropy of an underlying Markov chain modelling the web topology. We present a novel method for online incremental computation of the entropy and a large deviation result regarding the length of a trail to realize the said entropy. We provide an error analysis for our estimation of the entropy in terms of the divergence between the empirical and actual probabilities. We then indicate applications of our algorithm in the area of web data mining. Finally, we present an extension of our technique to higher-order Markov chains by a suitable reduction of a higher-order Markov chain model to a first-order one

A comparative study of the AHP and TOPSIS methods for implementing load shedding scheme in a pulp mill system

The advancement of technology had encouraged mankind to design and create useful equipment and devices. These equipment enable users to fully utilize them in various applications. Pulp mill is one of the heavy industries that consumes large amount of electricity in its production. Due to this, any malfunction of the equipment might cause mass losses to the company. In particular, the breakdown of the generator would cause other generators to be overloaded. In the meantime, the subsequence loads will be shed until the generators are sufficient to provide the power to other loads. Once the fault had been fixed, the load shedding scheme can be deactivated. Thus, load shedding scheme is the best way in handling such condition. Selected load will be shed under this scheme in order to protect the generators from being damaged. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) can be applied in determination of the load shedding scheme in the electric power system. In this thesis two methods which are Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were introduced and applied. From this thesis, a series of analyses are conducted and the results are determined. Among these two methods which are AHP and TOPSIS, the results shown that TOPSIS is the best Multi criteria Decision Making (MCDM) for load shedding scheme in the pulp mill system. TOPSIS is the most effective solution because of the highest percentage effectiveness of load shedding between these two methods. The results of the AHP and TOPSIS analysis to the pulp mill system are very promising

REVIEW PAPER ON WEB PAGE PREDICTION USING DATA MINING

The continuous growth of the World Wide Web imposes the need of new methods of design and determines how to access a web page in the web usage mining by performing preprocessing of the data in a web page and development of on-line information services. The need for predicting the user’s needs in order to improve the usability and user retention of a web site is more than evident now a day. Without proper guidance, a visitor often wanders aimlessly without visiting important pages, loses interest, and leaves the site sooner than expected. In proposed system focus on investigating efficient and effective sequential access pattern mining techniques for web usage data. The mined patterns are then used for matching and generating web links for online recommendations. A web page of interest application will be developed for evaluating the quality and effectiveness of the discovered knowledge.   Keyword: Webpage Prediction, Web Mining, MRF, ANN, KNN, GA

A taxonomy of web prediction algorithms

Web prefetching techniques are an attractive solution to reduce the user-perceived latency. These techniques are driven by a prediction engine or algorithm that guesses following actions of web users. A large amount of prediction algorithms has been proposed since the first prefetching approach was published, although it is only over the last two or three years when they have begun to be successfully implemented in commercial products. These algorithms can be implemented in any element of the web architecture and can use a wide variety of information as input. This affects their structure, data system, computational resources and accuracy. The knowledge of the input information and the understanding of how it can be handled to make predictions can help to improve the design of current prediction engines, and consequently prefetching techniques. This paper analyzes fifty of the most relevant algorithms proposed along 15 years of prefetching research and proposes a taxonomy where the algorithms are classified according to the input data they use. For each group, the main advantages and shortcomings are highlighted. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This work has been partially supported by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under Grant TIN2009-08201, Generalitat Valenciana under Grant GV/2011/002 and Universitat Politecnica de Valencia under Grant PAID-06-10/2424.Domenech, J.; De La Ossa Perez, BA.; Sahuquillo Borrás, J.; Gil Salinas, JA.; Pont Sanjuan, A. (2012). A taxonomy of web prediction algorithms. Expert Systems with Applications. 39(9):8496-8502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.140S8496850239

Key factors in web latency savings in an experimental prefetching system

Although Internet service providers and communications companies are continuously offering higher and higher bandwidths, users still complain about the high latency they perceive when downloading pages from the web. Therefore, latency can be considered as the main web performance metric from the user's point of view. Many studies have demonstrated that web prefetching can be an interesting technique to reduce such latency at the expense of slightly increasing the network traffic. In this context, this paper presents an empirical study to investigate the maximum benefits that web users can expect from prefetching techniques in the current web. Unlike previous theoretical studies, this work considers a realistic prefetching architecture using real traces. In this way, the influence of real imple- mentation constraints are considered and analyzed. 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Integrating web caching and web prefetching in client-side proxies. IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, 16(5), 444–455