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Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information
The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V
Echo State Queueing Network: a new reservoir computing learning tool
In the last decade, a new computational paradigm was introduced in the field
of Machine Learning, under the name of Reservoir Computing (RC). RC models are
neural networks which a recurrent part (the reservoir) that does not
participate in the learning process, and the rest of the system where no
recurrence (no neural circuit) occurs. This approach has grown rapidly due to
its success in solving learning tasks and other computational applications.
Some success was also observed with another recently proposed neural network
designed using Queueing Theory, the Random Neural Network (RandNN). Both
approaches have good properties and identified drawbacks. In this paper, we
propose a new RC model called Echo State Queueing Network (ESQN), where we use
ideas coming from RandNNs for the design of the reservoir. ESQNs consist in
ESNs where the reservoir has a new dynamics inspired by recurrent RandNNs. The
paper positions ESQNs in the global Machine Learning area, and provides
examples of their use and performances. We show on largely used benchmarks that
ESQNs are very accurate tools, and we illustrate how they compare with standard
ESNs.Comment: Proceedings of the 10th IEEE Consumer Communications and Networking
Conference (CCNC), Las Vegas, USA, 201
The impacts of wellbore and surface facility constraintson production prediction in a reservoir model
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Agents and stream data mining: a new perspective
Many organizations struggle with the massive amount of data they collect. Today, data does more than serve as the ingredients for churning out statistical reports. They help support efficient operations in many organizations, and to some extent, data provide the competitive intelligence organizations need to survive in today\u27s economy. Data mining can\u27t always deliver timely and relevant results because data are constantly changing. However, stream-data processing might be more effective, judging by the Matrix project.<br /
Field Measurements of Spontaneous Potential (SP) for Smart Well Monitoring and Control. A Field Test in the UK Chalk Aquifer
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