Understanding distributions of chess performances

This paper presents evidence for several features of the population of chess players, and the distribution of their performances measured in terms of Elo ratings and by computer analysis of moves. Evidence that ratings have remained stable since the inception of the Elo system in the 1970’s is given in several forms: by showing that the population of strong players fits a simple logistic-curve model without inflation, by plotting players’ average error against the FIDE category of tournaments over time, and by skill parameters from a model that employs computer analysis keeping a nearly constant relation to Elo rating across that time. The distribution of the model’s Intrinsic Performance Ratings can hence be used to compare populations that have limited interaction, such as between players in a national chess federation and FIDE, and ascertain relative drift in their respective rating systems

Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified

Learning The Game: Implementations Of Convolutional Networks In Automated Strategy Identification

Games can be used to represent a wide variety of real world problems, giving rise to many applications of game theory. Various computational methods have been proposed for identifying game strategies, including optimized tree search algorithms, game-specific heuristics, and artificial intelligence. In the last decade, systems like AlphaGo and AlphaZero have significantly exceeded the performance of the best human players in Chess, Go, and other games. The most effective game engines to date employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to evaluate game boards, extract features, and predict the optimal next move. These engines are trained on billions of simulated games, wherein the strategies become increasingly refined as more games are played. To explore the trade-offs inherent in developing CNNs, we will train them to play the game Connect-4, which is relatively small and has known optimal strategies. In this setting, we experiment with a variety of neural structures and other related factors with only a few hundred thousand simulated games. The results will allow us to compare how different aspects of the neural network impact performance. We propose a framework for this training process which generalizes to any two-player board games meeting some necessary criteria

A novel computer Scrabble engine based on probability that performs at championship leve

The thesis starts by giving an introduction to the game of Scrabble, then mentions state-of-the-art computer Scrabble programs and presents some characteristics of our developed Scrabble engine Heuri. Some brief notions of Game Theory are given, along with history of some games in Artificial Intelligence; the fundamental algorithms for game playing, as well as state-of-the-art engines and the algorithms used by them, are presented. Basic elements of Scrabble, such as the Scrabble rules and the letter distribution, are given. Some history and state-of-the-art of Computer Scrabble are commented. For instance, the generation methods of valid moves based on the data structure DAWG (Directed Acyclic Word Graph) and also the variant GADDAG are recalled. These methods are used by the state-of-the-art Scrabble engines Quackle and Maven. Then, the contributions of this thesis are presented. A Spanish lexicon for playing Scrabble has been built that is used by Heuri engines. From this construction, a detailed study and classification of Spanish irregular verbs has been provided. A novel Scrabble move generator based on anagrams has been designed and implemented, which has been shown to be faster than the GADDAG-based generator used in Quackle engine. This method is similar to the way Scrabble players look for a move, searching for anagrams and a spot to play on the board. Next, we address the evaluation of moves when playing Scrabble; the quality of your game depends on deciding what move should be played given a certain board and a rack with tiles. This decision was made initially by Heuri trying several heuristics which ended up with the construction of several engines. We give the explanation of the heuristics used in these engines, all of them based on probabilities. All these initial heuristic evaluation functions (up to six) do not use forward looking, they are static evaluators. They have shown, after testing, an increasing playing performance, which allow Heuri to beat (top-level) expert human players in Spanish, without the need of using sampling and simulation techniques. These heuristics mainly consider the possibility of achieving a bingo on the actual board, whereas Quackle used pre-calculated values (superleaves) regardless of the latter. Then, in order to improve the quality of play of Heuri even more, some additional engines are presented in which look ahead is employed. The HeuriSamp engine, which evaluates a 2-ply search, permits to obtain a defense value. The HeuriSim engine uses a 3-ply adversarial search tree; it contemplates the best first moves (according to Heuri sixth engine heuristic) from Player 1, then some replies to these moves (Player 2 moves) and then some replies to these replies (Player 1 moves). Finally, to improve these engines, opponent modeling is used; this technique makes predictions on some of the opponents' tiles based on the last play made by the opponent. We present results obtained by playing thousands of Heuri vs Heuri games, collecting important information: general statistics of Scrabble game, like a 16 point handicap of the second player, and word statistics in Spanish, like a list of the most frequently played bingos (words that use all 7 tiles of a player's rack). In addition, we present results of matches played by Heuri against top-level humans in Spanish and results obtained by massive playing of different Heuri engines against the Quackle engine in Spanish, French and English. All these match results demonstrate the championship level performance of the Heuri engines in the three languages, especially of the last developed engine that includes simulation and opponent modeling techniques. From here, conclusions of the thesis are drawn and work for the future is envisaged.La tesi comença introduint el joc del Scrabble, esmentant els programes d’ordinador de l’estat de l’art que juguen Scrabble, i presentant algunes característiques del motor de joc de Scrabble que s’ha desenvolupat anomenat Heuri. Es donen breus nocions de la Teoria de Jocs, junt amb la història d’alguns jocs en Intel·ligència Artificial; es presenten els algorismes fonamentals per jugar, així com els motors de joc de l’estat de l’art en diferents jocs i els algorismes que usen. Es comenta també la història i estat de l’art del Computer Scrabble. Es recorden els mètodes de generació de moviments vàlids basats en l’estructura de dades DAWG (Directed Acyclic Word Graph) i en la variant GADDAG, que són usats pels motors de joc de Scrabble Quackle i Maven. A continuació es presenten les contribucions de la tesi. S’ha construït un diccionari per jugar Scrabble en espanyol, el qual és usat per les diferentes versions del motor de joc Heuri. S’ha fet un estudi detallat i una classificació dels verbs irregulars en espanyol. S’ha dissenyat i implementat un nou generador de moviments de Scrabble basat en anagrames, que ha demostrat ser més ràpid que el generador basat en GADDAG usat al motor Quackle. Aquest mètode és similar a la manera en la que els jugadors de Scrabble cerquen un moviment, buscant anagrames i un lloc del tauler on col·locar-los. Seguidament, es tracta l’evacuació dels moviments quan es juga Scrabble; la qualitat del joc depèn de decidir quin moviment cal jugar donat un cert tauler i un faristol amb fitxes. En Heuri, inicialment, aquesta decisió es va prendre provant diferents heurístiques que van dur a la construcció de diversos motors. Donem l’explicació de les heurístiques usades en aquests motors, totes elles basades en probabilitats. Totes aquestes funcions d’avaluació heurística inicials (fins a sis) no miren cap endavant, fan avaluacions estàtiques. Han mostrat, després de ser provades, un rendiment creixent de nivell de joc, el que ha permès Heuri derrotar a jugadors humans experts de màxim nivell en espanyol, sense necessitat d’usar tècniques de mostreig i de simulació. Aquestes heurístiques consideren principalment la possibilitat d’aconseguir un bingo en el tauler actual, mentre que Quackle usa uns valors pre-calculats (superleaves) que no tenen en compte l’anterior. Amb l’objectiu de millorar la qualitat de joc de Heuri encara més, es presenten uns motors de joc addicionals que sí miren cap endavant. El motor HeuriSamp, que realitza una cerca 2-ply, permet obtenir un valor de defensa. El motor HeuriSim usa un arbre de cerca 3-ply; contempla els millors primers moviments (d’acord al sisè motor heurístic d’Heuri) del Jugador 1, després algunes respostes a aquests moviments (moviments del Jugador 2) i llavors algunes rèpliques a aquestes respostes (moviments del Jugador 1). Finalment, per a millorar aquests motors, es proposa usar modelatge d’oponents; aquesta tècnica realitza prediccions d’algunes de les fitxes de l’oponent basant-se en l’últim moviment jugat per aquest. Es presenten resultats obtinguts de jugar milers de partides d’Heuri contra Heuri, que recullen important informació: estadístiques generals del joc del Scrabble, com un handicap de 16 punts del segon jugador, i estadístiques de paraules en espanyol, com una llista dels bingos (paraules que usen les 7 fitxes del faristol d’un jugador) que es juguen més freqüentment. A més, es presenten resultats de partides jugades per Heuri contra jugadors humans de màxim nivell en espanyol i resultats obtinguts d'un gran nombre d’enfrontaments entre els diferents motors de joc d’Heuri contra el motor Quackle en espanyol, francès i anglès. Tots aquests resultats de partides jugades demostren el rendiment de nivell de campió dels motors d’Heuri en les tres llengües, especialment el de l’últim motor desenvolupat que inclou tècniques de de simulació i modelatge d'oponents. A partir d'aquí s'extreuen les conclusions de la tesi i es preveu treballar de cara al futur.Postprint (published version

Expert iteration

In this thesis, we study how reinforcement learning algorithms can tackle classical board games without recourse to human knowledge. Specifically, we develop a framework and algorithms which learn to play the board game Hex starting from random play. We first describe Expert Iteration (ExIt), a novel reinforcement learning framework which extends Modified Policy Iteration. ExIt explicitly decomposes the reinforcement learning problem into two parts: planning and generalisation. A planning algorithm explores possible move sequences starting from a particular position to find good strategies from that position, while a parametric function approximator is trained to predict those plans, generalising to states not yet seen. Subsequently, planning is improved by using the approximated policy to guide search, increasing the strength of new plans. This decomposition allows ExIt to combine the benefits of both planning methods and function approximation methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the ExIt paradigm by implementing ExIt with two different planning algorithms. First, we develop a version based on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), a search algorithm which has been successful both in specific games, such as Go, Hex and Havannah, and in general game playing competitions. We then develop a new planning algorithm, Policy Gradient Search (PGS), which uses a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm for online planning. Unlike MCTS, PGS does not require an explicit search tree. Instead PGS uses function approximation within a single search, allowing it to be applied to problems with larger branching factors. Both MCTS-ExIt and PGS-ExIt defeated MoHex 2.0 - the most recent Hex Olympiad winner to be open sourced - in 9 × 9 Hex. More importantly, whereas MoHex makes use of many Hex-specific improvements and knowledge, all our programs were trained tabula rasa using general reinforcement learning methods. This bodes well for ExIt’s applicability to both other games and real world decision making problems

Computer-based estimation of the difficulty of chess tactical problems

In intelligent tutoring systems, it is important for the system to understand how difficult a problem is for the student. However, it is an open question how to automatically assess such difficulty. The aim of our research is to find formalized measures of difficulty that could be used in automated assessment of the difficulty of a mental task for a human. We present a computational approach to estimating the difficulty of problems in which the difficulty arises from the combinatorial complexity of problems where a search among alternatives is required. Our approach is based on a computer heuristic search for building search trees that are “meaningful” from a human's point of view. We demonstrate that by analyzing properties of such trees, the program is capable to predict how difficult it would be for a human to solve the problem. In the experiments with chess tactical problems our program was able to differentiate between easy and difficult problems with a high level of accuracy

Computer-based estimation of the difficulty of chess tactical problems

In intelligent tutoring systems, it is important for the system to understand how difficult a problem is for the student. However, it is an open question how to automatically assess such difficulty. The aim of our research is to find formalized measures of difficulty that could be used in automated assessment of the difficulty of a mental task for a human. We present a computational approach to estimating the difficulty of problems in which the difficulty arises from the combinatorial complexity of problems where a search among alternatives is required. Our approach is based on a computer heuristic search for building search trees that are “meaningful” from a human's point of view. We demonstrate that by analyzing properties of such trees, the program is capable to predict how difficult it would be for a human to solve the problem. In the experiments with chess tactical problems our program was able to differentiate between easy and difficult problems with a high level of accuracy

Innovation and skill dynamics: a life - cycle approach

This paper focuses on the complementary institutional and organizational adjustments that facilitate the routinization of technological opportunities. To address this issue we propose a life-cycle approach that accounts for the emergence, development and transformation of the conduits for the transmission of new knowledge and skills. While it is widely held that knowledge tends to get more organized as by-product of innovation, the purposeful absorption of practical know-how into formal education is another crucial, and arguably less analysed, intermediate step to bridge the beginning of the life-cycle, when new skills are closely tied to some novel technology, to later phases when the emergence of new disciplines and the diffusion of those skills elicit complementary developments in the technology. The paper connects themes that are central to the tangled policy discourse on skills impact innovation, namely: the institutional adjustments required to favour the re-absorption of skill mismatches; the systematization of knowledge underpinning the creation of new academic disciplines; and implications for dynamics of productivity and of the wage structure.