Why bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design

Why do we need to employ Bayesian statistics and how can we employ it in studies of moral education?: With practical guidelines to use JASP for educators and researchers

ABSTRACTIn this article, we discuss the benefits of Bayesian statistics and how to utilize them in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two data sets previously collected: one small data set collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big data set from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. The results suggest that Bayesian analysis of data sets collected from moral educational studies can provide additional useful statistical information, particularly that associated with the strength of evidence supporting alternative hypotheses, which has not been provided by the classical frequentist approach focusing on P-values. Finally, we introduce several practical guidelines pertaining to how to utilize Bayesian statistics, including the utilization of newly developed free statistical software, Jeffrey’s Amazing Statistics Program, and thresholding based on Bayes Factors, to scholars in the field of moral education

The functional subdivision of the visual brain : Is there a real illusion effect on action? A multi-lab replication study

Acknowledgements We thank Brian Roberts and Mike Harris for responding to our questions regarding their paper; Zoltan Dienes for advice on Bayes factors; Denise Fischer, Melanie Römer, Ioana Stanciu, Aleksandra Romanczuk, Stefano Uccelli, Nuria Martos Sánchez, and Rosa María Beño Ruiz de la Sierra for help collecting data; Eva Viviani for managing data collection in Parma. We thank Maurizio Gentilucci for letting us use his lab, and the Centro Intradipartimentale Mente e Cervello (CIMeC), University of Trento, and especially Francesco Pavani for lending us his motion tracking equipment. We thank Rachel Foster for proofreading. KKK was supported by a Ph.D. scholarship as part of a grant to VHF within the International Graduate Research Training Group on Cross-Modal Interaction in Natural and Artificial Cognitive Systems (CINACS; DFG IKG-1247) and TS by a grant (DFG – SCHE 735/3-1); both from the German Research Council.Peer reviewedPostprin

Factors Associated with Patient Satisfaction of Community Mental Health Services: A Multilevel Approach

Community care is increasingly the mainstay of mental healthcare provision in many countries and patient satisfaction is an important barometer of quality of patient care. This paper explores the key factors associated with patient satisfaction with community mental health services in England and then compares providers’ performance on patient satisfaction. Our analysis is based on patient-level responses from the community mental health survey, which is run annually by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) for the years 2010 to 2013. We perform a repeated cross-section analysis, identifying factors associated with patient satisfaction via a multi-level ordered probit model, including both patient- and provider-level variables. We identify hospital-specific effects via empirical Bayes estimation. Our analysis identifies a number of novel results. First, patient characteristics such as older age, being employed, and being able to work, are associated with higher satisfaction, while being female is associated with lower satisfaction. Service contact length, time since last visit, condition severity and admission to a mental health institution, are all associated with lower satisfaction. Second, treatment type affects satisfaction, with patients receiving talking therapies or being prescribed medications being more satisfied. Third, care continuity and involvement, as proxied by having a care plan, is associated with higher satisfaction. Fourth, seeing a health professional closer to the community improves satisfaction, with patients seeing a community-psychiatric nurse, a social worker or a mental-health support worker being more satisfied. Finally, our study identifies the need for service integration, with patients experiencing financial, accommodation, or physical health needs being less satisfied. At a provider level, we find a negative association between the percentage of occupied beds and satisfaction. We further identify significant provider-specific effects after accounting for observable differences in patient and provider characteristics which suggests significant differences in provider quality of care

CleanML: A Study for Evaluating the Impact of Data Cleaning on ML Classification Tasks

Data quality affects machine learning (ML) model performances, and data scientists spend considerable amount of time on data cleaning before model training. However, to date, there does not exist a rigorous study on how exactly cleaning affects ML -- ML community usually focuses on developing ML algorithms that are robust to some particular noise types of certain distributions, while database (DB) community has been mostly studying the problem of data cleaning alone without considering how data is consumed by downstream ML analytics. We propose a CleanML study that systematically investigates the impact of data cleaning on ML classification tasks. The open-source and extensible CleanML study currently includes 14 real-world datasets with real errors, five common error types, seven different ML models, and multiple cleaning algorithms for each error type (including both commonly used algorithms in practice as well as state-of-the-art solutions in academic literature). We control the randomness in ML experiments using statistical hypothesis testing, and we also control false discovery rate in our experiments using the Benjamini-Yekutieli (BY) procedure. We analyze the results in a systematic way to derive many interesting and nontrivial observations. We also put forward multiple research directions for researchers.Comment: published in ICDE 202

False discovery rate regression: an application to neural synchrony detection in primary visual cortex

Many approaches for multiple testing begin with the assumption that all tests in a given study should be combined into a global false-discovery-rate analysis. But this may be inappropriate for many of today's large-scale screening problems, where auxiliary information about each test is often available, and where a combined analysis can lead to poorly calibrated error rates within different subsets of the experiment. To address this issue, we introduce an approach called false-discovery-rate regression that directly uses this auxiliary information to inform the outcome of each test. The method can be motivated by a two-groups model in which covariates are allowed to influence the local false discovery rate, or equivalently, the posterior probability that a given observation is a signal. This poses many subtle issues at the interface between inference and computation, and we investigate several variations of the overall approach. Simulation evidence suggests that: (1) when covariate effects are present, FDR regression improves power for a fixed false-discovery rate; and (2) when covariate effects are absent, the method is robust, in the sense that it does not lead to inflated error rates. We apply the method to neural recordings from primary visual cortex. The goal is to detect pairs of neurons that exhibit fine-time-scale interactions, in the sense that they fire together more often than expected due to chance. Our method detects roughly 50% more synchronous pairs versus a standard FDR-controlling analysis. The companion R package FDRreg implements all methods described in the paper