A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

Strategic Environmental Assessment for Municipal Water Demand Based on Climate Change

Accurate urban water demand forecasting plays a key role in the planning and design of municipal water supply infrastructure. The reliable prediction of water demand is challenging for water companies, specifically when considering the implications of climate change (Zubaidi et al., 2018). Several studies have documented that weather variables drive water consumption in the short-term, and it enhances the accuracy of the prediction model when it is combined with socio-economic factors. However, the impact of climate change on the municipal water demand has yet to be challenged. To surmount this challenge, more research work is needed to accurately estimate the required quantity of water with increasing water demands. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be an innovative approach to predict water demand. This PhD study aims to develop a novel methodology to forecast the impact of climate change on municipal water demands for a long-term time series based on the baseline period 1980-2010. It should be highlighted that, based on our knowledge, this is the first study of substantial duration, based on data collected from 1980-2010, which focuses on the associations between monthly climate change and municipal water consumption. A new approach is therefore proposed to quantifying municipal water demands through the assessment of climatic factors, using a combination of a Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique, three hybrid computational intelligence algorithms and an ANN model. These hybrid algorithms include a Lightning Search Algorithm (LSA-ANN), a Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA-ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO-ANN). The SSA technique is adopted to decompose the time series of water consumption and climate variables to detect the stochastic signal for each time series. In the same context, the hybrid algorithms are used to find the best value of learning rate coefficient and the number of neurons in both hidden layers of the ANN model. Based on the performance of each hybrid algorithm, the most accurate and reliable water demand forecast model will be selected and used for estimating future water consumption. The considered environments of this study are applied in Australia and the United States from America for mitigating the uncertainty associated with the geographic location (the data of the United States of America was used to support the reliability of developing the municipal water demands prediction model). Furthermore, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model is utilised to simulate future climate factors over three periods (2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) based on the B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios and seven General Circulation Models (GCMs). The future projection of these climate factors is applied directly to the impact model of water consumption to obtain the projected municipal water demand for different future periods and different greenhouse emission scenarios. The principal findings of this research are the following: from the model perspective, 1) the SSA is a powerful technique when used to remove the effect of socio-economic factors and noise, and detect the stochastic signal time series for water consumption. 2) The ANN model has better performance in term of optimising the correlation between observed and predicted water consumption when using the (LSA-ANN) algorithm. 3) The evaluation of the ANN model (using a validation data set) for Melbourne and Columbia Cities gives a correlation coefficient of 0.96 and 0.95, and the root mean square errors are 0.025 and 0.016 respectively. These findings indicate the capability of the proposed model to predict water demands with high accuracy in different continents. 4) The high performance of LARS-WG model results are found to be appropriate for the simulation of future climate variables. 5) The harmonisation between future monthly water demand (for the periods 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) and stochastic signals of climate variables, relative to baseline period 1980-2010, emphasises the reliability of the present methodology. However, from the water demand perspective, the water percentage demand (WPD) are likely to rise in winter, drop in summer and fluctuate in both spring and autumn seasons for all periods and under all greenhouse emission scenarios. The results of WPD distribute between -3.5% and 3% for all periods and emission scenarios. The A2 scenario shows the highest and lowest values of WPDs compared to the A1B and B1 scenarios, in particular, in the 3rd period. The mean of seasonal WPD values shows that there is no dominant scenario as the best or the worst case of water demand over all future periods. The highest amount of seasonal demand happens in winter (A2 scenario, 3rd period), and the lowest amount of seasonal demand occurs in autumn (A1B scenario, 3rd period). In conclusion, this study facilitates the conception of the impact of climate change on municipal water demand from the baseline period 1980-2010

Classification of Abandoned Areas for Solar Energy Projects Using Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Mechanics

The increasing demand for energy has intensified recently, requiring alternative sources to fossil fuels, which have become economically and environmentally unfeasible. On the other hand, the increasing land occupation in recent centuries is a growing problem, demanding greater efficiency, particularly in the reuse of abandoned areas, which has become an alternative. An interesting alternative would be installing energy facilities like solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, in these areas. The objective of this paper is to develop a classification methodology, based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Quantum Theory (QT), to automatically carry out the classification of abandoned areas suitable for the settlement of these power plants. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) improved by the hybrid algorithm Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO) together with the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) were used for the classification task. In terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE), the QPSO-LMA approach achieved a decrease of 19.6% in relation to the classical LMA training with random initial weights. Moreover, the model’s accuracy showed an increase of 7.3% for the QPSO-LMA over the LMA. To validate this new approach, it was also tested on six different datasets available in the UCI Machine Learning Repository and seven classical techniques established in the literature. For the problem of installing photovoltaic plants in abandoned areas, the knowledge acquired with the solar dataset can be extrapolated to other regions

Methodology to Predict Daily Groundwater Levels by the Implementation of Machine Learning and Crop Models

The continuous decline of groundwater levels caused by variations in climatic conditions and crop water demands is an increased concern for the agricultural community. It is necessary to understand the factors that control these changes in groundwater levels so that we can better address declines and develop improved conservation practices that will lead to a more sustainable use of water. In this study, two machine learning techniques namely support vector regression (SVR) and the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network were implemented to predict daily groundwater levels in a well located in the Mississippi Delta Region (MDR). Results of the NARX model indicate that a Bayesian regularization algorithm with two hidden nodes and 100 time delays was the best architecture to forecast groundwater levels. In another study, the SVR and the NARX model were compared for the prediction of groundwater withdrawal and recharge periods separately. Results from this study showed that input data classified by seasons lead to incremental improvements in the model accuracy, and that the SVR was the most efficient machine learning model with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.00123 m for the withdrawal season. Analysis of input variables such as previous daily groundwater levels (Gw), precipitation (Pr), and evapotranspiration (ET) showed that the combination of Gw+Pr provides the optimal set for groundwater prediction and that ET degraded the modeling performance, especially during recharge seasons. Finally, the CROPGRO-Soybean crop model was used to simulate the impacts of different volumes of irrigation on the crop height and yield, and to generate the daily irrigation requirements for soybean crops in the MDR. Four irrigation threshold scenarios (20%, 40%, 50% and 60%) were obtained from the CROGRO-Soybean model and used as inputs in the SVR to evaluate the predicted response of daily groundwater levels to different irrigation demands. This study demonstrated that conservative irrigation management, by selecting a low irrigation threshold, can provide good yields comparable to what is produced by a high volume irrigation management practice. Thus, lower irrigation volumes can have a big impact on decreasing the amount of groundwater withdrawals, while still maintaining comparable yields

Methodology to Predict Daily Groundwater Levels by the Implementation of Machine Learning and Crop Models

The continuous decline of groundwater levels caused by variations in climatic conditions and crop water demands is an increased concern for the agricultural community. It is necessary to understand the factors that control these changes in groundwater levels so that we can better address declines and develop improved conservation practices that will lead to a more sustainable use of water. In this study, two machine learning techniques namely support vector regression (SVR) and the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network were implemented to predict daily groundwater levels in a well located in the Mississippi Delta Region (MDR). Results of the NARX model indicate that a Bayesian regularization algorithm with two hidden nodes and 100 time delays was the best architecture to forecast groundwater levels. In another study, the SVR and the NARX model were compared for the prediction of groundwater withdrawal and recharge periods separately. Results from this study showed that input data classified by seasons lead to incremental improvements in the model accuracy, and that the SVR was the most efficient machine learning model with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.00123 m for the withdrawal season. Analysis of input variables such as previous daily groundwater levels (Gw), precipitation (Pr), and evapotranspiration (ET) showed that the combination of Gw+Pr provides the optimal set for groundwater prediction and that ET degraded the modeling performance, especially during recharge seasons. Finally, the CROPGRO-Soybean crop model was used to simulate the impacts of different volumes of irrigation on the crop height and yield, and to generate the daily irrigation requirements for soybean crops in the MDR. Four irrigation threshold scenarios (20%, 40%, 50% and 60%) were obtained from the CROGRO-Soybean model and used as inputs in the SVR to evaluate the predicted response of daily groundwater levels to different irrigation demands. This study demonstrated that conservative irrigation management, by selecting a low irrigation threshold, can provide good yields comparable to what is produced by a high volume irrigation management practice. Thus, lower irrigation volumes can have a big impact on decreasing the amount of groundwater withdrawals, while still maintaining comparable yields

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)

Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs

Machine Learning with Metaheuristic Algorithms for Sustainable Water Resources Management

The main aim of this book is to present various implementations of ML methods and metaheuristic algorithms to improve modelling and prediction hydrological and water resources phenomena having vital importance in water resource management

A Framework for Life Cycle Cost Estimation of a Product Family at the Early Stage of Product Development

A cost estimation method is required to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development in order to evaluate the product family design. There are difficulties with existing cost estimation techniques in estimating the life cycle cost for a product family at the early stage of product development. This paper proposes a framework that combines a knowledge based system and an activity based costing techniques in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development. The inputs of the framework are the product family structure and its sub function. The output of the framework is the life cycle cost of a product family that consists of all costs at each product family level and the costs of each product life cycle stage. The proposed framework provides a life cycle cost estimation tool for a product family at the early stage of product development using high level information as its input. The framework makes it possible to estimate the life cycle cost of various product family that use any types of product structure. It provides detailed information related to the activity and resource costs of both parts and products that can assist the designer in analyzing the cost of the product family design. In addition, it can reduce the required amount of information and time to construct the cost estimation system