175,462 research outputs found
Application of Kolmogorov complexity and universal codes to identity testing and nonparametric testing of serial independence for time series
We show that Kolmogorov complexity and such its estimators as universal codes
(or data compression methods) can be applied for hypotheses testing in a
framework of classical mathematical statistics. The methods for identity
testing and nonparametric testing of serial independence for time series are
suggested.Comment: submitte
Hypotheses testing on infinite random graphs
Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to
definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the
study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects.
Specifically, a criterion for the existence of a consistent test for complex
hypotheses is presented, generalizing the corresponding results on time series.
As an application, it is shown how one can test that a tree has the Markov
property, or, more generally, to estimate its memory
An Information-Theoretic Test for Dependence with an Application to the Temporal Structure of Stock Returns
Information theory provides ideas for conceptualising information and
measuring relationships between objects. It has found wide application in the
sciences, but economics and finance have made surprisingly little use of it. We
show that time series data can usefully be studied as information -- by noting
the relationship between statistical redundancy and dependence, we are able to
use the results of information theory to construct a test for joint dependence
of random variables. The test is in the same spirit of those developed by
Ryabko and Astola (2005, 2006b,a), but differs from these in that we add extra
randomness to the original stochatic process. It uses data compression to
estimate the entropy rate of a stochastic process, which allows it to measure
dependence among sets of random variables, as opposed to the existing
econometric literature that uses entropy and finds itself restricted to
pairwise tests of dependence. We show how serial dependence may be detected in
S&P500 and PSI20 stock returns over different sample periods and frequencies.
We apply the test to synthetic data to judge its ability to recover known
temporal dependence structures.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure
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