Agent-based modeling: a systematic assessment of use cases and requirements for enhancing pharmaceutical research and development productivity.

A crisis continues to brew within the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) enterprise: productivity continues declining as costs rise, despite ongoing, often dramatic scientific and technical advances. To reverse this trend, we offer various suggestions for both the expansion and broader adoption of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods. We suggest strategies and scenarios intended to enable new M&S use cases that directly engage R&D knowledge generation and build actionable mechanistic insight, thereby opening the door to enhanced productivity. What M&S requirements must be satisfied to access and open the door, and begin reversing the productivity decline? Can current methods and tools fulfill the requirements, or are new methods necessary? We draw on the relevant, recent literature to provide and explore answers. In so doing, we identify essential, key roles for agent-based and other methods. We assemble a list of requirements necessary for M&S to meet the diverse needs distilled from a collection of research, review, and opinion articles. We argue that to realize its full potential, M&S should be actualized within a larger information technology framework--a dynamic knowledge repository--wherein models of various types execute, evolve, and increase in accuracy over time. We offer some details of the issues that must be addressed for such a repository to accrue the capabilities needed to reverse the productivity decline

Machine learning models for the prediction of pharmaceutical powder properties

Error on title page – year of award is 2023.Understanding how particle attributes affect the pharmaceutical manufacturing process performance remains a significant challenge for the industry, adding cost and time to the development of robust products and production routes. Tablet formation can be achieved by several techniques however, direct compression (DC) and granulation are the most widely used in industrial operations. DC is of particular interest as it offers lower-cost manufacturing and a streamlined process with fewer steps compared with other unit operations. However, to achieve the full potential benefits of DC for tablet manufacture, this places strict demands on material flow properties, blend uniformity, compactability, and lubrication, which need to be satisfied. DC is increasingly the preferred technique for pharmaceutical companies for oral solid dose manufacture, consequently making the flow prediction of pharmaceutical materials of increasing importance. Bulk properties are influenced by particle attributes, such as particle size and shape, which are defined during crystallization and/or milling processes. Currently, the suitability of raw materials and/or formulated blends for DC requires detailed characterization of the bulk properties. A key goal of digital design and Industry 4.0 concepts is through digital transformation of existing development steps be able to better predict properties whilst minimizing the amount of material and resources required to inform process selection during early- stage development. The work presented in Chapter 4 focuses on developing machine learning (ML) models to predict powder flow behaviour of routine, widely available pharmaceutical materials. Several datasets comprising powder attributes (particle size, shape, surface area, surface energy, and bulk density) and flow properties (flow function coefficient) have been built, for pure compounds, binary mixtures, and multicomponent formulations. Using these datasets, different ML models, including traditional ML (random forest, support vector machines, k nearest neighbour, gradient boosting, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, and logistic regression) classification and regression approaches, have been explored for the prediction of flow properties, via flow function coefficient. The models have been evaluated using multiple sampling methods and validated using external datasets, showing a performance over 80%, which is sufficiently high for their implementation to improve manufacturing efficiency. Finally, interpretability methods, namely SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanaitions), have been used to understand the predictions of the machine learning models by determining how much each variable included in the training dataset has contributed to each final prediction. Chapter 5 expanded on the work presented in Chapter 4 by demonstrating the applicability of ML models for the classification of the viability of pharmaceutical formulations for continuous DC via flow function coefficient on their powder flow. More than 100 formulations were included in this model and the particle size and particle shape of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the flow function coefficient of the APIs, and the concentration of the components of the formulations were used to build the training dataset. The ML models were evaluated using different sampling techniques, such as bootstrap sampling and 10-fold cross-validation, achieving a precision of 90%. Furthermore, Chapter 6 presents the comparison of two data-driven model approaches to predict powder flow: a Random Forest (RF) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. A total of 98 powders covering a wide range of particle sizes and shapes were assessed using static image analysis. The RF model was trained on the tabular data (particle size, aspect ratio, and circularity descriptors), and the CNN model was trained on the composite images. Both datasets were extracted from the same characterisation instrument. The data were split into training, testing, and validation sets. The results of the validation were used to compare the performance of the two approaches. The results revealed that both algorithms achieved a similar performance since the RF model and the CNN model achieved the same accuracy of 55%. Finally, other particle and bulk properties, i.e., bulk density, surface area, and surface energy, and their impact on the manufacturability and bioavailability of the drug product are explored in Chapter 7. The bulk density models achieved a high performance of 82%, the surface area models achieved a performance of 80%, and finally, the surface-energy models achieved a performance of 60%. The results of the models presented in this chapter pave the way to unified guidelines moving towards end-to-end continuous manufacturing by linking the manufacturability requirements and the bioavailability requirements.Understanding how particle attributes affect the pharmaceutical manufacturing process performance remains a significant challenge for the industry, adding cost and time to the development of robust products and production routes. Tablet formation can be achieved by several techniques however, direct compression (DC) and granulation are the most widely used in industrial operations. DC is of particular interest as it offers lower-cost manufacturing and a streamlined process with fewer steps compared with other unit operations. However, to achieve the full potential benefits of DC for tablet manufacture, this places strict demands on material flow properties, blend uniformity, compactability, and lubrication, which need to be satisfied. DC is increasingly the preferred technique for pharmaceutical companies for oral solid dose manufacture, consequently making the flow prediction of pharmaceutical materials of increasing importance. Bulk properties are influenced by particle attributes, such as particle size and shape, which are defined during crystallization and/or milling processes. Currently, the suitability of raw materials and/or formulated blends for DC requires detailed characterization of the bulk properties. A key goal of digital design and Industry 4.0 concepts is through digital transformation of existing development steps be able to better predict properties whilst minimizing the amount of material and resources required to inform process selection during early- stage development. The work presented in Chapter 4 focuses on developing machine learning (ML) models to predict powder flow behaviour of routine, widely available pharmaceutical materials. Several datasets comprising powder attributes (particle size, shape, surface area, surface energy, and bulk density) and flow properties (flow function coefficient) have been built, for pure compounds, binary mixtures, and multicomponent formulations. Using these datasets, different ML models, including traditional ML (random forest, support vector machines, k nearest neighbour, gradient boosting, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, and logistic regression) classification and regression approaches, have been explored for the prediction of flow properties, via flow function coefficient. The models have been evaluated using multiple sampling methods and validated using external datasets, showing a performance over 80%, which is sufficiently high for their implementation to improve manufacturing efficiency. Finally, interpretability methods, namely SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanaitions), have been used to understand the predictions of the machine learning models by determining how much each variable included in the training dataset has contributed to each final prediction. Chapter 5 expanded on the work presented in Chapter 4 by demonstrating the applicability of ML models for the classification of the viability of pharmaceutical formulations for continuous DC via flow function coefficient on their powder flow. More than 100 formulations were included in this model and the particle size and particle shape of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the flow function coefficient of the APIs, and the concentration of the components of the formulations were used to build the training dataset. The ML models were evaluated using different sampling techniques, such as bootstrap sampling and 10-fold cross-validation, achieving a precision of 90%. Furthermore, Chapter 6 presents the comparison of two data-driven model approaches to predict powder flow: a Random Forest (RF) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. A total of 98 powders covering a wide range of particle sizes and shapes were assessed using static image analysis. The RF model was trained on the tabular data (particle size, aspect ratio, and circularity descriptors), and the CNN model was trained on the composite images. Both datasets were extracted from the same characterisation instrument. The data were split into training, testing, and validation sets. The results of the validation were used to compare the performance of the two approaches. The results revealed that both algorithms achieved a similar performance since the RF model and the CNN model achieved the same accuracy of 55%. Finally, other particle and bulk properties, i.e., bulk density, surface area, and surface energy, and their impact on the manufacturability and bioavailability of the drug product are explored in Chapter 7. The bulk density models achieved a high performance of 82%, the surface area models achieved a performance of 80%, and finally, the surface-energy models achieved a performance of 60%. The results of the models presented in this chapter pave the way to unified guidelines moving towards end-to-end continuous manufacturing by linking the manufacturability requirements and the bioavailability requirements

Generalized in vitro-in vivo relationship (IVIVR) model based on artificial neural networks

Background: The aim of this study was to develop a generalized in vitro-in vivo relationship (IVIVR) model based on in vitro dissolution profiles together with quantitative and qualitative composition of dosage formulations as covariates. Such a model would be of substantial aid in the early stages of development of a pharmaceutical formulation, when no in vivo results are yet available and it is impossible to create a classical in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC)/IVIVR. Methods: Chemoinformatics software was used to compute the molecular descriptors of drug substances (ie, active pharmaceutical ingredients) and excipients. The data were collected from the literature. Artificial neural networks were used as the modeling tool. The training process was carried out using the 10-fold cross-validation technique. Results: The database contained 93 formulations with 307 inputs initially, and was later limited to 28 in a course of sensitivity analysis. The four best models were introduced into the artificial neural network ensemble. Complete in vivo profiles were predicted accurately for 37.6% of the formulations. Conclusion: It has been shown that artificial neural networks can be an effective predictive tool for constructing IVIVR in an integrated generalized model for various formulations. Because IVIVC/IVIVR is classically conducted for 2–4 formulations and with a single active pharmaceutical ingredient, the approach described here is unique in that it incorporates various active pharmaceutical ingredients and dosage forms into a single model. Thus, preliminary IVIVC/IVIVR can be available without in vivo data, which is impossible using current IVIVC/IVIVR procedures

Investigating knowledge management factors affecting Chinese ICT firms performance: An integrated KM framework

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in the Journal of Information Systems Management, 28(1), 19 - 29, 2011, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10580530.2011.536107.This article sets out to investigate the critical factors of Knowledge Management (KM) which are considered to have an impact on the performance of Chinese information and communication technology (ICT) firms. This study confirms that the cultural environment of an enterprise is central to its success in the context of China. It shows that a collaborated, trusted, and learning environment within ICT firms will have a positive impact on their KM performance

Development of an intelligent approach for delivering high performing training solutions

Predictive modelling is a state-of-the-art technique for which an objective variable is predicted given a set of environmental parameters. Many types of models exist and most of them can be built with different architectures. This project comes from the necessity to improve the measurement of biometric indicators and understand how team performance can affect their level in a defence training context. The biometric indicators of interest are the player’s heart rate and stress index, which are going to be related to information extracted from the GPS coordinates they have. The objective has been to study the evolution of the stress index during an exercise period, trying to determine how the other biometrical and positional factors influence its level. After reviewing existing work in the medical field for stress monitoring and team performance in an educational context, it has been observed that no literature involved both topics relating them to each other, let alone in a defence environment. A list of quality indicators has been defined to assess the quality of the provided raw datasets, the information from which has been managed to build a single dataset that could be used to train a model. The results of the quality assessment have shown that the recording frequency for the different indicators should be modified to a common value since the existing time difference between recordings has proven to be a complex issue to solve when building the model. Regression, neural network, and random forest models have been tested, with the latter being the one offering the best precision. The heart rate, the duration of the exercise, and the distance from the player to the opposite team were the variables that played a major role in the prediction. Overall, a valid prediction has been reached despite the missing gaps in the provided datasets. The key features to predict the stress index have been identified and recommendations in terms of data quality have been made so the predictions can be improve

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for the Next Generation of 3D Printed Medicines

Artificial intelligence (AI) is redefining how we exist in the world. In almost every sector of society, AI is performing tasks with super-human speed and intellect; from the prediction of stock market trends to driverless vehicles, diagnosis of disease, and robotic surgery. Despite this growing success, the pharmaceutical field is yet to truly harness AI. Development and manufacture of medicines remains largely in a ‘one size fits all’ paradigm, in which mass-produced, identical formulations are expected to meet individual patient needs. Recently, 3D printing (3DP) has illuminated a path for on-demand production of fully customisable medicines. Due to its flexibility, pharmaceutical 3DP presents innumerable options during formulation development that generally require expert navigation. Leveraging AI within pharmaceutical 3DP removes the need for human expertise, as optimal process parameters can be accurately predicted by machine learning. AI can also be incorporated into a pharmaceutical 3DP ‘Internet of Things’, moving the personalised production of medicines into an intelligent, streamlined, and autonomous pipeline. Supportive infrastructure, such as The Cloud and blockchain, will also play a vital role. Crucially, these technologies will expedite the use of pharmaceutical 3DP in clinical settings and drive the global movement towards personalised medicine and Industry 4.0

Empirical modeling of the fine particle fraction for carrier-based pulmonary delivery formulations

In vitro study of the deposition of drug particles is commonly used during development of formulations for pulmonary delivery. The assay is demanding, complex, and depends on: properties of the drug and carrier particles, including size, surface characteristics, and shape; interactions between the drug and carrier particles and assay conditions, including flow rate, type of inhaler, and impactor. The aerodynamic properties of an aerosol are measured in vitro using impactors and in most cases are presented as the fine particle fraction, which is a mass percentage of drug particles with an aerodynamic diameter below 5 µm. In the present study, a model in the form of a mathematical equation was developed for prediction of the fine particle fraction. The feature selection was performed using the R-environment package “fscaret”. The input vector was reduced from a total of 135 independent variables to 28. During the modeling stage, techniques like artificial neural networks, genetic programming, rule-based systems, and fuzzy logic systems were used. The 10-fold cross-validation technique was used to assess the generalization ability of the models created. The model obtained had good predictive ability, which was confirmed by a root-mean-square error and normalized root-mean-square error of 4.9 and 11%, respectively. Moreover, validation of the model using external experimental data was performed, and resulted in a root-mean-square error and normalized root-mean-square error of 3.8 and 8.6%, respectively.Published versio

Empirical modeling of the sodium channel inhibition caused by drugs

The aim of this work was to create extended QSAR model of the relationship between sodium channel blocking activity of the particular compound and its chemical structure together with the in vitro assay conditions. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were chosen as modeling tools. Chemoinformatics software was used for calculation of the molecular descriptors describing the structure of the interest. Drug concentration causing 50% of the channel inhibition (IC50) was used as the modeling endpoint. The data was based on the literature search and consisted of 38 drugs and 108 records. Initial number of inputs was 110 and during the sensitivity analysis was reduced to 20. ANNs models were optimized in the extended 10-fold cross-validation scheme yielding RMSE = 0.68, NRMSE = 20.7% and R2= 0.35. Best models were ANNs ensembles combining three ANNs with their outputs averaged as a collective output of the system