Forecasting Popularity of Videos using Social Media

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards

Multi-Source-Driven Asynchronous Diffusion Model for Video-Sharing in Online Social Networks

Characterizing the video diffusion in online social networks (OSNs) is not only instructive for network traffic engineering, but also provides insights into the information diffusion process. A number of continuous-time diffusion models have been proposed to describe video diffusion under the assumption that the activation latency along social links follows a single parametric distribution. However, such assumption has not been empirically verified. Moreover, a user usually has multiple activated neighbors with different activation times, and it is hard to distinguish the different contributions of these multiple potential sources. To fill this gap, we study the multiple-source-driven asynchronous information diffusion problem based on substantial video diffusion traces. Specifically, we first investigate the latency of information propagation along social links and define the single-source (SS) activation latency for an OSN user. We find that the SS activation latency follows the exponential mixture model. Then we develop an analytical framework which incorporates the temporal factor and the influence of multiple sources to describe the influence propagation process. We show that one's activation probability decreases exponentially with time. We also show that the time shift of the exponential function is only determined by the most recent source (MRS) active user, but the total activation probability is the combination of influence exerted by all active neighbors. Based on these discoveries, we develop a multi-source-driven asynchronous diffusion model (MADM). Using maximum likelihood techniques, we develop an algorithm based on expectation maximization (EM) to learn model parameters, and validate our proposed model with real data. The experimental results show that the MADM obtains better prediction accuracy under various evaluation metrics.published_or_final_versio

A hierarchical model of non-homogeneous Poisson processes for Twitter retweets

We present a hierarchical model of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) for information diffusion on online social media, in particular Twitter retweets. The retweets of each original tweet are modelled by a NHPP, for which the intensity function is a product of time-decaying components and another component that depends on the follower count of the original tweet author. The latter allows us to explain or predict the ultimate retweet count by a network centrality-related covariate. The inference algorithm enables the Bayes factor to be computed, to facilitate model selection. Finally, the model is applied to the retweet datasets of two hashtags. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplemen

VideoTag: Encouraging the Effective Tagging of Internet Videos Through Tagging Games

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the University of Wolverhampton for the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyAbstract The tags and descriptions entered by video owners in video sharing sites are typically inadequate for retrieval purposes, yet the majority of video search still uses this text. This problem is escalating due to the ease with which users can self-publish videos, generating masses that are poorly labelled and poorly described. This thesis investigates how users tag videos and whether video tagging games can solve this problem by generating useful sets of tags. A preliminary study investigated tags in two social video sharing sites, YouTube and Viddler. YouTube contained many irrelevant tags because the system does not encourage users to tag their videos and does not promote tags as useful. In contrast, using tags as the sole means of categorisation in Viddler motivated users to enter a higher proportion of relevant tags. Poor tags were found in both systems, however, highlighting the need to improve video tagging. In order to give users incentives to tag videos, the VideoTag project in this thesis developed two tagging games, Golden Tag and Top Tag, and one non-game tagging system, Simply Tag, and conducted two experiments with them. In the first experiment VideoTag was a portal to play video tagging games whereas in the second experiment it was a portal to curate collections of special interest videos. Users preferred to tag videos using games, generating tags that were relevant to the videos and that covered a range of tag types that were descriptive of the video content at a predominately specific, objective level. Users were motivated by interest in the content rather than by game elements, and content had an effect on the tag types used. In each experiment, users predominately tagged videos using objective language, with a tendency to use specific rather than basic tags. There was a significant difference between the types of tags entered in the games and in Simply Tag, with more basic, objective vocabulary entered into the games and more specific, objective language entered into the non-game system. Subjective tags were rare but were more frequent in Simply Tag. Gameplay also had an influence on the types of tags entered; Top Tag generated more basic tags and Golden Tag generated more specific and subjective tags. Users were not attracted to use VideoTag by the games alone. Game mechanics had little impact on motivations to use the system. VideoTag used YouTube videos, but could not upload the tags to YouTube and so users could see no benefit for the tags they entered, reducing participation. Specific interest content was more of a motivator for use than games or tagging and that this warrants further research. In the current game-saturated climate, gamification of a video tagging system may therefore be most successful for collections of videos that already have a committed user base.University of Wolverhampto

Understanding Video Propagation in Online Social Networks: Measurement, Analysis, and Enhancement

The deep penetration of Online Social Networks (OSNs) has made them major portals for video content sharing recently. It is known that a significant portion of the accesses to video sharing sites (VSSes) are now coming from OSN users. For example, YouTube reported that, as of January 2012, more than 700 tweets per minute containing a YouTube link, and over 500 years\u27 worth of YouTube videos are watched by Facebook users every day. Although the videos shared in OSNs are mostly from VSSes, OSNs provide quite different mouth-to-mouth-like sharing mechanisms, leading to distinctive user access patterns. Yet the unique features of video sharing over OSNs and their impact remain largely unknown. In this thesis, we conduct a systematic study on the video propagation in OSNs based on large-scale real-world data. Our study unveils the unique characteristics of video requests from OSNs, showing that an OSN can dramatically amplify the skewness of video popularity that 2% most popular videos account for 90% of total views; and video popularity also exhibits much more dynamics with multiple request bursts. We then closely analyze the video propagation process in OSNs with both measurement and modeling, identifying the key influential factors. We further examine the popularity prediction of videos shared in OSNs. We demonstrate that conventional methods largely fail in this new context, and develop a novel propagation-based prediction model. Finally, based on the above studies, we present SNACS (Social Network Aware Cloud Assistance for Video Sharing), which enables OSN operators to cost-effectively enhance the video viewing experience of their users through utilizing content cloud services