Understanding and predicting trends in urban freight transport

Among different components of urban mobility, urban freight transport is usually considered as the least sustainable. Limited traffic infrastructures and increasing demands in dense urban regions lead to frequent delivery runs with smaller freight vehicles. This increases the traffic in urban areas and has negative impacts upon the quality of life in urban populations. Data driven optimizations are essential to better utilize existing urban transport infrastructures and to reduce the negative effects of freight deliveries for the cities. However, there is limited work and data driven research on urban delivery areas and freight transportation networks. In this paper, we collect and analyse data on urban freight deliveries and parking areas towards an optimized urban freight transportation system. Using a new check-in based mobile parking system for freight vehicles, we aim to understand and optimize freight distribution processes. We explore the relationship between areas' availability patterns and underlying traffic behaviour in order to understand the trends in urban freight transport. By applying the detected patterns we predict the availabilities of loading/unloading areas, and thus open up new possibilities for delivery route planning and better managing of freight transport infrastructures. © 2017 IEEE

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

The evaluation of E-business related technologies in the Railway Industry

For the purposes of this paper, e-business is defined as: "the performance, automisation and organisation of transactions, or chains of them, and the gathering and publishing of data, electronically over a communication protocol" Little research has been conducted either into how e-business technology can be successfully evaluated, or into the associated costs and benefits specifically related to the transportation and railway industries. Based upon a review of the current literature and a series of interviews held with railway operators, track managers and transportation customers from the Australian Fortune 100, the paper puts forward a framework for the evaluation of e-business investments within the railway industry. The research reported here is aimed at developing a flexible interface that enables the decision maker to assess and evaluate a wide variety of complex interacting variables. The proposed approach uses a variety of evaluation methods, as opposed to searching for a single "best" approach. Additionally, an attempt is being made to include the complex interaction between the implementation of the new technology and the changing organisational setting. A model is proposed using fuzzy logic to handle incomplete and uncertain knowledge; as well as to combine criteria within a conceptual model from which "real-worth" evaluations can be performed. This model provides a systematic approach to guide the decision maker in the deployment of e-business and emerging technologies in the industry. After discussing the main findings from a literature review on the use of evaluation frameworks in IT related projects, the paper deals with the proposed framework in detail. The use of empirical data, which was obtained transportation customers to help define the main framework factors, is also discussed. Finally, the paper summarises the main implications for rail freight of customers’s perceptions and stated needs in the e-business domain

Investigation to enhance sustainable improvements in high speed rail transport

Transport systems are essential for the life of modern societies and economies. A sustainable transport system can shape a sustainable development pattern and socio-economic attributes of urban centres and regions. The use of private cars and trucks is increasing in most countries, creating more congestion, accidents, pollution and energy consumption. Many governments desire to achieve growth in public transport to overcome these adverse trends. A massive shift toward an environmentally sound type of transport is crucial and railways are deemed to be one of the most sustainable modes. All over the world the railway industry is involved in a renewal to reform and up-date rail, prompted largely by environmental concerns. The trend is to develop speed-competitive systems to expand transportation capacity. The focus of the current research, which is at its commencing stages, is to investigate the opportunities to apply an alternative approach to railway operations to overcome the difficulty of high speed transport in servicing larger amounts of demand, while achieving minimum point to point travel time, in a viable and integrated environment for both passenger and freight services. The expected outcome of the research project is to present a framework that may be used to identify and evaluate the most cost-effective transport solution to service not only major cities, but also regional centres along an interregional rail corridor, thus providing greater benefits on local economies and to build a spine for future development

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

A problem-structuring model for analyzing transportation–environment relationships

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in European Journal of Operational Research. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2009 Elsevier B.V.This study discusses a decision support framework that guides policy makers in their strategic transportation related decisions by using multi-methodology. For this purpose, a methodology for analyzing the effects of transportation policies on environment, society, economy, and energy is proposed. In the proposed methodology, a three-stage problem structuring model is developed. Initially, experts’ opinions are structured by using a cognitive map to determine the relationships between transportation and environmental concepts. Then a structural equation model (SEM) is constructed, based on the cognitive map, to quantify the relations among external transportation and environmental factors. Finally the results of the SEM model are used to evaluate the consequences of possible policies via scenario analysis. In this paper a pilot study that covers only one module of the whole framework, namely transportation–environment interaction module, is conducted to present the applicability and usefulness of the methodology. This pilot study also reveals the impacts of transportation policies on the environment. To achieve a sustainable transportation system, the extent of the relationships between transportation and the environment must be considered. The World Development Indicators developed by the World Bank are used for this purpose

Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel

An ordered probit model is used to predict motor vehicle usage in Australia on the basis of the unit record files underlying the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Survey of Motor Vehicle Use. Both household and freight transport are analysed. The paper examines the statistical significance of a number of driver, vehicle and travel purpose variables on the level of motor vehicle usage. Factors analysed include driver age and gender, vehicle and fuel type, age of the vehicle, purpose of trip, place of registration, type of freight and number of drivers. The results indicate that the cut-off points between very low, low, medium, high and very high vehicle usages are significant and that the factors associated with differences in usage include driver age, engine size and age of vehicle for household vehicles and the type of freight, type of vehicle, gender and number of drivers for freight usage

Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel

An ordered probit model is used to predict motor vehicle usage in Australia on the basis of the unit record files underlying the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Survey of Motor Vehicle Use. Both household and freight transport are analysed. The paper examines the statistical significance of a number of driver, vehicle and travel purpose variables on the level of motor vehicle usage. Factors analysed include driver age and gender, vehicle and fuel type, age of the vehicle, purpose of trip, place of registration, type of freight and number of drivers. The results indicate that the cut-off points between very low, low, medium, high and very high vehicle usages are significant and that the factors associated with differences in usage include driver age, engine size and age of vehicle for household vehicles and the type of freight, type of vehicle, gender and number of drivers for freight usage.Motor vehicle usage, driver, vehicle and purpose characteristics, ordered probit.

Air freight demand models: An overview

A survey is presented of some of the approaches which have been considered in freight demand estimation. The few existing continuous time computer simulations of aviation systems are reviewed, with a view toward the assessment of this approach as a tool for structuring air freight studies and for relating the different components of the air freight system. The variety of available data types and sources, without which the calibration, validation and the testing of both modal split and simulation models would be impossible are also reviewed