Political Settlements: Issues paper

Why do similar sets of formal institutions often have such divergent outcomes? An analysis of political settlements goes some way to answering this question by bringing into focus the contending interests that exist within any state, which constrain and facilitate institutional and developmental change. It provides a framework to analyse how the state is linked to society and what lies behind the formal representation of politics in a state. The political settlement and the elite bargains from which it emerges are central to patterns of state fragility and resilience. The role of political organisation within the political settlement is crucial to both the stability of the settlement and the direction in which it evolves over time. The elite bargains that may lead to the establishment of what might be considered a resilient political settlement may also act as a barrier to progressive developmental change. Analysis of political settlements suggests that state-building is far from a set of technical formulas, but is a highly political process. Creating capacity within a state to consolidate and expand taxation is fundamentally determined by the shape of the political settlement underlying the state. This is true as well for the development of service delivery or any other function of the state. This analytical framework provides a window for donors to grasp the politics of a place in order to design more effective interventions

The Endgame: America’s Exit from Syria

Ever since the 2011 Arab Spring protests in Syria fueled civil war costing nearly half a million lives to date, the US response has been cautious indecision. Syria became a proxy war with Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, the Turks, ISIS, the Kurds, and the local Syrian opposition all competing to support or oust Assad. All but the Kurds and select Syrian resistance groups opposed America. With billions spent on questionable war efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, President Obama, the American public, and most of the military establishment were leery of direct US involvement in Syria. Apart from supporting the fight against ISIS and half-hearted demands that Bashar al Assad step aside as leader of Syria, neither President Obama nor President Trump have committed US troops to achieving anything more comprehensive. Optimally, the US should encourage multilateral efforts to negotiate Assad’s removal from office with Russia, address Turkish fears of Kurdish independence, or pressure Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria. Under present circumstances facing US policymakers, such optimizing is illusory. Whatever the limits and possibilities of USFP in the region today, it is clear that America needs a tactical retreat to reconsolidate its power and purpose to fight its Russian and Iranian foes another day when the direct stakes for American interests are higher

Abolishing the security dilemma: Why we need to integrate the militaries

This article argues that the Security Dilemma can in fact be abolished by integrating the militaries into one common global organisation, possibly under one common command. The existence and workings of NATO are an approximate example of this ideal in a geographically limited space. For illustrating this argument, this article discusses the logic of the Prisoners Dilemma, as the intellectual model underlying the Security Dilemma, and proposes an alternative version of the Prisoners Dilemma. It is then argued that the Security Dilemma only persists in a politically and economically ever farther integrated world because the international militaries are not integrated and hence partial anarchy persists at least in the military realm. The solution to remaining international conflicts, such as arguably one between the West and Russia recently, would be to expand NATO to include ‘threatening’ states’ militaries until all militaries are joined in a global organisation. Finally, revised non-violent functions for NATO, as well as a global welfare state and an early warning system for civil wars, are proposed and discussed

'Good' state vs. 'bad' warlords? A critique of state-building strategies in Afghanistan

The current Afghan government, having weak social roots has been forced to rely on the support of ‘warlords’ to stay in power. But a high price had to be paid. Despite the predominant stress in much current analysis on the issue of regional warlordism, the limited reform achievements in the Kabul ministries and the enduring domination by the militias of some key ministries are potentially much more threatening to the reform and re-establishment of the Afghan state. Widespread corruption is preventing some key ministries from achieving the minimal effectiveness required. Even within Kabul, the focus of the international community has been misplaced. In particular, the pressure of donors on the Ministry of the Interior has been nowhere near as strong as that exerted over the Ministry of Finance. The international community also failed to support adequately the attempts by ‘civil society’ to change the corrupt practices of the state administration

Reshaping Political Space? The Impact of the Armed Insurgency in the Central African Republic on Political Parties and Representation

This paper analyzes the declining importance of political parties in the Central African Republic (CAR). It argues that the problematic attitude of elites who are fluctuating between violent and peaceful behavior in order to further their own careers is jeopardizing both peace and democracy. The author hypothesizes that both political parties and rebel movements are failing to adequately represent (ethnoregional) interests, but that parties are suffering more in the course of the enduring war and the peace process. Patterns of elite behavior are presented as the main explanation for the resulting crisis of representation, with international actors’ preference for inclusionary power-sharing deals seen as the main aggravating factor.Central African Republic, peace process, political parties, rebel movements,representation

Emerging pluralist politics in Mozambique: the Frelimo-Renamo party system

In 1992, the Mozambican civil war was brought to a close, marking the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change. Despite the extreme poverty of the country, Mozambique has managed to introduce a formally competitive electoral regime, in which movements that were formerly in violent opposition to one another have moved towards fragile pluralist practices, in marked contrast to, for example, Angola, whose peace process quickly unravelled. This paper examines the emergence of a two party system in Mozambique, in which the former Renamo guerrilla fighters appear to have embraced the possibilities of peace. Ultimately, however, Carbone warns against undue optimism, and highlights the weaknesses of the system that are still to be resolved. For all that the country has adopted a formally competitive political system, it continues to fall short of fully democratic and liberal practices

Case Study: School Discipline Reform in California

At the core of The California Endowment's (TCE) work is their Health Happens Here strategy. Health Happens in Neighborhoods, in Schools, and with Prevention -- and Health Happens with All Our Sons and Brothers. TCE sponsored a case study of school discipline reform in California, and engaged Nancy Latham (LFA's Chief Learning Officer) and two other consultants (Tia Martinez and Arnold Chandler) to research and write the study. The case study tells the story of how community and youth organizers, public interest lawyers, and statewide advocates came together to support school discipline reform. In a remarkably short period of time during 2011 and 2012, this issue went from the fringes to the center of policy debate -- with ten bills introduced, seven passed, and five ultimately signed into law. These new policies are an important milestone in the effort to back away from overly punitive "zero tolerance" school discipline that fuels high drop-out rates among young people of color. These policies will make it easier for schools to support and educate, rather than marginalize, our sons and brothers