Uncertainty in basic short-term macroeconomic models with angel-daemon games

We propose the use of an angel-daemon framework to perform an uncertainty analysis of short-term macroeconomic models. The angel-daemon framework defines a strategic game where two agents, the angel and the daemon, act selfishly. These games are defined over an uncertainty profile which presents a short and macroscopic description of a perturbed situation. The Nash equilibria on these games provide stable strategies in perturbed situations, giving a natural estimation of uncertainty. We apply the framework to the uncertainty analysis of linear versions of the IS-LM and the IS-MP models.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

An angel-daemon approach to assess the uncertainty in the power of a collectivity to act

The final publication is available at link.springer.comWe propose the use of the angel-daemon framework to assess the Coleman's power of a collectivity to act under uncertainty in weighted voting games. In this framework uncertainty profiles describe the potential changes in the weights of a weighted game and fixes the spread of the weights' change. For each uncertainty profile a strategic angel-daemon game can be considered. This game has two selfish players, the angel and the daemon, the angel selects its action as to maximize the effect on the measure under consideration while daemon acts oppositely. Players angel and daemon give a balance between the best and the worst. The angel-daemon games associated to the Coleman's power are zero-sum games and therefore the expected utilities of all the Nash equilibria are the same. In this way we can asses the Coleman's power under uncertainty. Besides introducing the framework for this particular setting we analyse basic properties and make some computational complexity considerations. We provide several examples based in the evolution of the voting rules of the EU Council of Ministers.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Uncertainty in basic short-term macroeconomic models with angel-daemon games

We propose the use of an angel-daemon framework to perform an uncertainty analysis of short-term macroeconomic models. The angel-daemon framework defines a strategic game where two agents, the angel and the daemon, act selfishly. These games are defined over an uncertainty profile which presents a short and macroscopic description of a perturbed situation. The Nash equilibria on these games provide stable strategies in perturbed situations, giving a natural estimation of uncertainty. We apply the framework to the uncertainty analysis of linear versions of the IS-LM and the IS-MP models.Peer Reviewe

Current Topics on Risk Analysis: ICRA6 and RISK2015 Conference

Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Current Topics on Risk Analysis: ICRA6 and RISK2015 Conference

Artículos presentados en la International Conference on Risk Analysis ICRA 6/RISK 2015, celebrada en Barcelona del 26 al 29 de mayo de 2015.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Fuelling the zero-emissions road freight of the future: routing of mobile fuellers

The future of zero-emissions road freight is closely tied to the sufficient availability of new and clean fuel options such as electricity and Hydrogen. In goods distribution using Electric Commercial Vehicles (ECVs) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) a major challenge in the transition period would pertain to their limited autonomy and scarce and unevenly distributed refuelling stations. One viable solution to facilitate and speed up the adoption of ECVs/HFCVs by logistics, however, is to get the fuel to the point where it is needed (instead of diverting the route of delivery vehicles to refuelling stations) using "Mobile Fuellers (MFs)". These are mobile battery swapping/recharging vans or mobile Hydrogen fuellers that can travel to a running ECV/HFCV to provide the fuel they require to complete their delivery routes at a rendezvous time and space. In this presentation, new vehicle routing models will be presented for a third party company that provides MF services. In the proposed problem variant, the MF provider company receives routing plans of multiple customer companies and has to design routes for a fleet of capacitated MFs that have to synchronise their routes with the running vehicles to deliver the required amount of fuel on-the-fly. This presentation will discuss and compare several mathematical models based on different business models and collaborative logistics scenarios

The mourning of lost autonomy: a philosophical and psychoanalytic critique on the objectification of fantasy

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University Londo

Messages from the deep : water divinities, dreams and diviners in Southern Africa

This thesis is a comparative regional study of a complex of beliefs and practices regarding the water divinities in southern Africa. These snake and mermaid-like divinities, which are said to work in conjunction with one's ancestors, are believed to be responsible for the calling and training of certain diviner-healers by taking them underwater for periods of time. In addition to granting healing knowledge, these divinities are associated with fertility, water and rain, and the origins of humanity. The research combines comparative ethnography with the anthropology of extraordinary experience (AEE), and focuses particularly on the Zulu, Cape Nguni, Shona and Khoisan groups. The use of the 'radical participation' method, as recommended by AEE, was facilitated by the author being identified as having a ' calling' from these water divinities, which subsequently resulted in her initiation under the guidance of a Zulu isangoma (diviner-healer) who had reputedly been taken underwater. The research details the rituals that were performed and how dreams are used to guide the training process of izangoma. This resulted in the research process being largely dream-directed, in that the author traces how the izangoma responded to various dreams she had and how these responses opened new avenues for understanding the phenomenon of the water divinities. The comparative study thus combines literature sources, field research and dream-directed experiences, and reveals a complex of recurring themes, symbols and norms pertaining to the water divinities across the selected groups. In seeking to explain both the commonalities and differences between these groups, the author argues for a four-level explanatory model that combines both conventional anthropological theory and extraordinary experience. Responses to the author's dream-led experiences are used to throw light on the conflicting discourses of morality regarding traditional healers and the water divinities in the context of political-economic transformations relating to capitalism and the moral economy; to illuminate the blending of ideas and practices between Zulu Zionists and diviner-healer traditions; and to link up with certain issues relating to San rock art, rain-making and healing rituals, which contribute to the debates regarding trance-induced rock art in southern Africa