Uncertainty analysis methods to select the optimal alternative in the design of parking facilities

The selection of the preferred alternative in a parking facility project is usually made in a state of uncertainty. Decision-making methods are a useful tool to systematically arrive at a final decision between different alternatives and reduce subjectivity in decision making by creating a series of filters. However, the selection of the appropriate variables to be considered in the analysis may be problematic as well. Performing sensitivity analyses on entry variables is a key feature to ensure that the final choice is stable when initial conditions experience changes. This paper suggests a methodology to select the best alternative when considering parking facilities. The methodology compares the results from two different sensitivity analyses techniques. The changes in preference experienced as the applied weights change through the process are analyzed and the most critical criteria are identified

European air quality maps 2005 including uncertainty analysis

The objective of this report is (a) the updating and refinement of European air quality maps based on annual statistics of the 2005 observational data reported by EEA Member countries in 2006, and (b) the further improvement of the interpolation methodologies. The paper presents the results achieved and an uncertainty analysis of the interpolated maps and builds upon earlier reports from Horalék et al. (2005; 2007)

Uncertainty Analysis for Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Optimization

In this contribution our developed framework for data-driven chance-constrained optimization is extended with an uncertainty analysis module. The module quantifies uncertainty in output variables of rigorous simulations. It chooses the most accurate parametric continuous probability distribution model, minimizing deviation between model and data. A constraint is added to favour less complex models with a minimal required quality regarding the fit. The bases of the module are over 100 probability distribution models provided in the Scipy package in Python, a rigorous case-study is conducted selecting the four most relevant models for the application at hand. The applicability and precision of the uncertainty analyser module is investigated for an impact factor calculation in life cycle impact assessment to quantify the uncertainty in the results. Furthermore, the extended framework is verified with data from a first principle process model of a chloralkali plant, demonstrating the increased precision of the uncertainty description of the output variables, resulting in 25% increase in accuracy in the chance-constraint calculation.BMWi, 0350013A, ChemEFlex - Umsetzbarkeitsanalyse zur Lastflexibilisierung elektrochemischer Verfahren in der Industrie; Teilvorhaben: Modellierung der Chlor-Alkali-Elektrolyse sowie anderer Prozesse und deren Bewertung hinsichtlich Wirtschaftlichkeit und möglicher HemmnisseDFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität Berli

Uncertainty Analysis of Feature Extraction from Expired Gas Traces

Noninvasive medical analyses are a convenient method to study several pathologies even though their indirect nature often requires a complex processing to determine the relevant health "indicators". The usefulness of such indicators depends on the employed model, but also on the uncertainty that is connected to the complex processing involved in the indicator determination. This paper deals with the problems related to the estimation of the uncertainty when the indicators are computed by means of a nontrivial processing on recorded traces of clinical parameters. The paper is focused on the analysis of expired gas traces, but the procedure can also be applied to many other cases where the processing involves manual or automatic selection of suitable "key points" on repetitive traces