Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of tunnels, current approaches in the road tunnel field have limitations to model organizational aspects, software behavior and the adaptation of the tunnel system over time. This paper reviews the aforementioned limitations and highlights the need to enhance the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures with a complementary approach that links the organizational factors to the operational and technical issues, analyze software behavior and models the dynamics of the tunnel system. To achieve this objective, this paper examines the scope for introducing a safety assessment method which is based on the systems thinking paradigm and draws upon the STAMP model. The method proposed is demonstrated through a case study of a tunnel ventilation system and the results show that it has the potential to identify scenarios that encompass both the technical system and the organizational structure. However, since the method does not provide quantitative estimations of risk, it is recommended to be used as a complementary approach to the traditional risk assessments rather than as an alternative. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Optimal allocation of tunnel safety provisions based on a quantitative risk assessment model

© 2016 Pan Li and Xiaobo Qu. This paper addresses the issue of optimally selecting the tunnel safety provisions. Tunnel safety provisions are the assets of urban road tunnels which are installed and implemented to reduce the tunnel risks, which are basically selected by expert judgment in practice. An optimization model is proposed to obtain the optimal solution for the selection of tunnel safety provisions. The objective function is to minimize the life cycle costs of tunnel safety provisions, which is subject to the requirements for tunnel safety provisions and the safety targets. Finally, by taking advantage of the special structure of the optimization model, a Bi-Section Search and Bound Algorithm (BSSBA) is designed to efficiently solve the problem

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR FIRE IN URBAN ROAD TUNNELS

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1) year of publication, (2) journal of publication, (3) year of publication and application areas and (4) authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%), the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%), the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches

5th International Probabilistic Workshop: 28-29 November 2007, Ghent, Belgium

These are the proceedings of the 5th International Probabilistic Workshop. Even though the 5th anniversary of a conference might not be of such importance, it is quite interesting to note the development of this probabilistic conference. Originally, the series started as the 1st and 2nd Dresdner Probabilistic Symposium, which were launched to present research and applications mainly dealt with at Dresden University of Technology. Since then, the conference has grown to an internationally recognised conference dealing with research on and applications of probabilistic techniques, mainly in the field of structural engineering. Other topics have also been dealt with such as ship safety and natural hazards. Whereas the first conferences in Dresden included about 12 presentations each, the conference in Ghent has attracted nearly 30 presentations. Moving from Dresden to Vienna (University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences) to Berlin (Federal Institute for Material Research and Testing) and then finally to Ghent, the conference has constantly evolved towards a truly international level. This can be seen by the language used. The first two conferences were entirely in the German language. During the conference in Berlin however, the change from the German to English language was especially apparent as some presentations were conducted in German and others in English. Now in Ghent all papers will be presented in English. Participants now, not only come from Europe, but also from other continents. Although the conference will move back to Germany again next year (2008) in Darmstadt, the international concept will remain, since so much work in the field of probabilistic safety evaluations is carried out internationally. In two years (2009) the conference will move to Delft, The Netherlands and probably in 2010 the conference will be held in Szczecin, Poland. Coming back to the present: the editors wish all participants a successful conference in Ghent

Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Large accidents throughout the 20th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. As these fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, a significant delay in this transition was experienced in fire safety engineering (FSE). Devastating fires well into the 21st century and the restrictive nature of prescriptive codes signaled the need to transition towards a performance-based one. A performance-based approach provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and engineering disciplines such as process safety and FSE. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. A simple example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simple fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, being it directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings

TRAM: a New Quantitative Methodology for Tunnel Risk Analysis

The paper illustrates and describes the structure of a new quantitative model of risk analysis for road tunnels named TRAM (Tunnel Risk Analysis Model). The result of the model, in accordance with the European Directive and the Italian Legislative Decree, returns the F-N curves of societal risk, in other words functions that relate the frequency of occurrence of an accidental scenario (F) with the expected consequences in terms of potential victims (N). Starting from two types of initial events, a fire and a Dangerous Goods (DG) release, a total of 18 accidental scenarios was defined. The frequencies of occurrence of each accidental scenario is obtained using the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique. For each scenario, the number of fatalities, expressed in terms of deaths, is obtained by simulating the formation dynamics of the queue of vehicles, using a model able to calculate the queue length, depending on traffic, the vehicle type, as well as the closure time of the tunnel. Then, a distribution model of the potentially exposed users has been defined and coupled with an egress model. The users’ tenability is estimated on the basis of the egress model and the evolution of each accidental scenario, which is evaluated using a zone model. The proposed model can simulate each of the 18 accidental scenarios in several different positions along the tunnel, considering the impact that different tunnel infrastructure measures, equipment and management procedures can have on the users egress and on the propagation of the effects of the accidental scenarios. The model is able to consider the interdependence between these measures and their reliability in terms of their availability in an emergency situation. Finally, to validate the model, comparisons are made with the QRAM software developed by PIARC for some representative case studies. Through this model, it is possible to perform the risk analysis of a tunnel in an actual configuration and compare the expected value of damage with the corresponding one of the tunnel in a virtual configuration, as prescribed by the Italian decree compliant with the European Directive 2004/54/EC

Guidelines for deriving seismic fragility functions of elements at risk: Buildings, lifelines, transportation networks and critical facilities

The objective of SYNER-G in regards to the fragility functions is to propose the most appropriate functions for the construction typologies in Europe. To this end, fragility curves from literature were collected, reviewed and, where possible, validated against observed damage and harmonised. In some cases these functions were modified and adapted, and in other cases new curves were developed. The most appropriate fragility functions are proposed for buildings, lifelines, transportation infrastructures and critical facilities. A software tool was also developed for the storage, harmonisation and estimation of the uncertainty of fragility functions.JRC.G.5-European laboratory for structural assessmen