Stochastic Renewal Process Models for Maintenance Cost Analysis

The maintenance cost for an engineering system is an uncertain quantity due to uncertainties associated with occurrence of failure and the time taken to restore the system. The problem of probabilistic analysis of maintenance cost can be modeled as a stochastic renewal-reward process, which is a complex problem. Assuming that the time horizon of the maintenance policy approaches infinity, simple asymptotic formulas have been derived for the failure rate and the cost per unit time. These asymptotic formulas are widely utilized in the reliability literature for the optimization of a maintenance policy. However, in the finite life of highly reliable systems, such as safety systems used in a nuclear plant, the applicability of asymptotic approximations is questionable. Thus, the development of methods for accurate evaluation of expected maintenance cost, failure rate, and availability of engineering systems is the subject matter of this thesis. In this thesis, an accurate derivation of any m-th order statistical moment of maintenance cost is presented. The proposed formulation can be used to derive results for a specific maintenance policy. The cost of condition-based maintenance (CBM) of a system is analyzed in detail, in which the system degradation is modeled as a stochastic gamma process. The CBM model is generalized by considering the random repair time and delay in degradation initiation. Since the expected cost is not informative enough to estimate the financial risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk, the probability distribution of the maintenance cost is derived. This derivation is based on an interesting idea that the characteristic function of the cost can be computed from a renewal-type integral equation, and its Fourier transform leads to the probability distribution. A sequential inspection and replacement strategy is presented for the asset management of a large population of components. The finite-time analyses presented in this thesis can be combined to compute the reliability and availability at the system level. Practical case studies involving the maintenance of the heat transport piping system in a nuclear plant and a breakwater are presented. A general conclusion is that finite time cost analysis should be used for a realistic evaluation and optimization of maintenance policies for critical infrastructure systems

Warranty return policies for products with unknown claim causes and their optimisation

In practical warranty services management, faults may not always be found in claimed items by warranty service agents, which is the well-known no-fault found phenomenon (for example, caused by a loose connection between parts, or simply human error). This phenomenon can contribute more than 40% of reported service faults in electronic products and it can be due to faults of manufacturers or product users. Little research, however, considers this phenomenon in warranty management since faults are normally assumed to be found in the claimed items. On the basis of different levels of testing, this paper proposes three warranty return policies, which decide whether new items should be sent to warranty claimants or not. It then derives and compares the expected costs of the policies, and obtains the optimal warranty periods under supply chain environments. The paper illustrates the results with artificially generated data

Maintenance Strategies Design and Assessment Using a Periodic Complexity Approach

People become more dependent on various devices, which do deteriorate over time and their operation becomes more complex. This leads to higher unexpected failure chance, which causes inconvenience, cost, time, and even lives. Therefore, an efficient maintenance strategy that reduces complexity should be established to ensure the system performs economically as designed without interruption. In the current research, a comprehensive novel approach is developed for designing and evaluating maintenance strategies that effectively reduce complexity in a cost efficient way with maximum availability and quality. A proper maintenance strategy application needs a rigorous failure definition. A new complexity based mathematical definition of failure is introduced that is able to model all failure types. A complexity-based metric, complication rate , is introduced to measure functionality degradation and gradual failure. Maintenance reduces the system complexity by system resetting via introducing periodicity. A metric for measuring the amount of periodicity introduced by maintenance strategy is developed. Developing efficient maintenance strategies that improve system performance criteria, requires developing the mathematical relationships between maintenance and quality, availability, and cost. The first relation relating the product quality to maintenance policy is developed using the virtual age concept. The aging intensity function is then deployed to develop the relation between maintenance and availability. The relation between maintenance and cost is formulated by investigating the maintenance effect on each cost element. The final step in maintenance policy design is finding the optimum periodicity level. Two approaches are investigated; weighted sum integrated with AHP and a comfort zones approach. Comfort zones is a new developed physical programming based optimization heuristic that captures designer preferences and limitations without substantial efforts in tweaking or calculating weights. A mining truck case study is presented to explain the application of the developed maintenance design approach and compare its results to the traditional reward renewal theory. It is shown that the developed approach is more capable of designing a maintenance policy that reduces complexity and simultaneously improves some other performance measures. This research explains that considering complexity reduction in maintenance policy design improves system functionality, and it can be achieved by simple industrially applicable approach

Economics of Patents: An Overview, The

In this paper, we review the economic effects of intellectual property rights and specifically address the economics of the patent system. The production and dissemination of new knowledge is fraught with market failures because knowledge is a public good. Patents provide a second-best solution to the resulting appropriability problem. We review the main benefits and costs of the patent system, focusing on the role that patents play in providing incentives for innovation, in promoting the dissemination of knowledge, and in helping technology transfer and commercialization of new technology. From a more normative perspective, we address the questions of what the features of an optimal patent system are and whether the patent system is socially desirable. We examine the problem of the optimal length and scope of patent protection, both for the case of a single innovation and for the richer case of cumulative innovations. Finally, we review the issues related to how the patent system influences the market structure and research and development investments.

A study of postponed replacement in a delay time model

We develop a delay time model for a one component system with postponed replacement to analyze situations in which maintenance might not be executed immediately upon discovery of a defect in the system. Reasons for postponement are numerous: to avoid production disruption or unnecessary or ineffective replacement; to prepare for replacement; to extend component life; to wait for an opportunity. This paper explores conditions that make postponement cost-effective. We are interested in modelling the reality in which a maintainer either prioritizes functional continuity or is not confident of the inspection test indicating a defective state. In some cases more frequent inspection and a longer time limit for postponement are recommended to take advantage of maintenance opportunities, characterized by their low cost, arising after a positive inspection. However, when the cost of failure increases, a significant reduction in the time limit of postponement interval is observed. The examples reveal that both the time to defect arrival and delay time have a significant effect upon the cost-effectiveness of maintenance at the limit of postponement. Also, more simply, we find that opportunities must occur frequently enough and inspection should be a high quality procedure to risk postponement

A review on maintenance optimization

To this day, continuous developments of technical systems and increasing reliance on equipment have resulted in a growing importance of effective maintenance activities. During the last couple of decades, a substantial amount of research has been carried out on this topic. In this study we review more than two hundred papers on maintenance modeling and optimization that have appeared in the period 2001 to 2018. We begin by describing terms commonly used in the modeling process. Then, in our classification, we first distinguish single-unit and multi-unit systems. Further sub-classification follows, based on the state space of the deterioration process modeled. Other features that we discuss in this review are discrete and continuous condition monitoring, inspection, replacement, repair, and the various types of dependencies that may exist between units within systems. We end with the main developments during the review period and with potential future research directions

Condition-based maintenance for complex systems based on current component status and Bayesian updating of component reliability

We propose a new condition-based maintenance policy for complex systems, based on the status (working, defective) of all components within a system, as well as the reliability block diagram of the system. By means of the survival signature, a generalization of the system signature allowing for multiple component types, we obtain a predictive distribution for the system survival time, also known as residual life distribution, based on which of the system's components currently function or not, and the current age of the functioning components.The time to failure of the components of the system is modeled by a Weibull distribution with a fixed shape parameter. The scale parameter is iteratively updated in a Bayesian fashion using the current (censored and non-censored) component lifetimes. Each component type has a separate Weibull model that may also include test data.The cost-optimal moment of replacement for the system is obtained by minimizing the expected cost rate per unit of time. The unit cost rate is recalculated when components fail or at the end of every (very short) fixed inter-evaluation interval, leading to a dynamic maintenance policy, since the ageing of components and possible failures will change the cost-optimal moment of replacement in the course of time. Via numerical experiments, some insight into the performance of the policy is given.</p

Extending Cyber-Physical Systems to Support Stakeholder Decisions Under Resource and User Constraints: Applications to Intelligent Infrastructure and Social Urban Systems

In recent years, rapid urbanization has imposed greater load demands on physical infrastructure while placing stressors (e.g., pollution, congestion, social inequity) on social systems. Despite these challenges, opportunities are emerging from the unprecedented proliferation of information technologies enabling ubiquitous sensing, cloud computing, and full-scale automation. Together, these advancements enable “intelligent” systems that promise to enhance the operation of the built environment. Even with these advancements, the ability of professionals to “sense for decisions” —data-driven decision processes based on sensed data that have quantifiable returns on investment—remains unrealized for an entire class of problems. In response, this dissertation builds a rigorous foundation enabling stakeholders to use sensor data to inform decisions in two applications: infrastructure asset management and community-engaged decision making. This dissertation aligns sensing strategies with decisions governing infrastructure management by extending the role of reliability methods to quantify system performance. First, the reliability index is used as a scalar measure of the safety (i.e., failure probability) that is extracted from monitoring data to assess structural condition relative to a failure limit state. As an example, long-term data collected from a wireless sensing network (WSN) installed on the Harahan Bridge (Memphis, TN) is used in a reliability framework to track the fatigue life of critical eyebar assemblies. The proposed reliability-based SHM framework is then generalized to formally and more broadly link SHM data with condition ratings (CRs) because inspector-assigned CRs remain the primary starting point for asset management decisions made in practice today. While reliability methods historically quantify safety with respect to a single failure limit state, this work demonstrates that there exist measurable reliability index values associated with “lower” limit states below failure that more richly characterize structural performance and rationally map to CR scales. Consequently, monitoring data can be used to assign CRs based on quantitative information encompassing the measurable damage domain, as opposed to relying on visual inspection. This work reflects the first-ever SHM framework to explicitly map monitoring data to actionable decisions and is validated using a WSN on the Telegraph Road Bridge (TRB) (Monroe, MI). A primary challenge faced by solar-powered WSNs is their stringent energy constraints. For decision-making processes relying on statistical estimation of performance, the utility of data should be considered to optimize the data collection process given these constraints. This dissertation proposes a novel stochastic data collection and transmission policy for WSNs that minimizes the variance of a measured process’ estimated parameters subject to constraints imposed by energy and data buffer sizes, stochastic models of energy and event arrivals, the value of measured data, and temporal death. Numerical results based on one-year of data collected from the TRB illustrate the gains achieved by implementing the optimal policy to obtain response data used to estimate the reliability index. Finally, this dissertation extends the work performed in WSN and sense-for-decision frameworks by exploring their role in community-based decision making. This work poses societal engagement as a necessary entry point to urban sensing efforts because members of under-resourced communities are vulnerable to lack of access to data and information. A novel, low-power WSN architecture is presented that functions as a user-friendly sensing solution that communities can rapidly deploy. Applying this platform, transformative work to “democratize” data is proposed in which members of vulnerable communities collect data and generate insights that inform their decision-making strategies.PHDCivil EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/162898/1/kaflanig_1.pd

Two Discrete-time Age-based Replacement Problems with/without Discounting

This paper considers two classical age-based replacement models within a discrete-time framework: a standard age replacement model and an opportunistic age replacement model. Specifically, our analysis incorporates the concept of replacement priority in situations where failure replacement and preventive replacement occur at a given age or opportunity. We explore two priority cases within each replacement model. First, we formulate optimal preventive replacement policies aimed at minimizing the associated expected cost rate in the age replacement model and the opportunistic age replacement model by the familiar renewal reward argument. Next, we extend the findings presented earlier to scenarios involving discounting. We develop formulations for the expected total discounted costs over an infinite time horizon and obtain optimal preventive replacement policies minimizing these total expected costs. Additionally, we explore unified models incorporating probabilistic priority. To provide practical insights, we present numerical illustrations using real failure data from pole air switches, comparing the performance of these optimal preventive policies