Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach

This paper presents the NetSyMoD approach – where NetSyMod stands for Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support. It represents the outcome of several years of research at FEEM in the field of natural resources management, environmental evaluation and decision-making, within the Natural Resources Management Research Programme. NetSyMoD is a flexible and comprehensive methodological framework, which uses a suite of support tools, aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in decision-making processes. The main phases envisaged for the process are: (i) the identification of relevant actors, (ii) the analysis of social networks, (iii) the creative system modelling and modelling of the reality being considered (i.e. the local socio-economic and environmental system), and (iv) the analysis of alternative options available for the management of the specific case (e.g. alternative projects, plans, strategies). The strategies for participation are necessarily context-dependent, and thus not all the NetSyMod phases may be needed in every application. Furthermore, the practical solutions for their implementation may significantly differ from one case to another, depending not only on the context, but also on the available resources (human and financial). The various applications of NetSyMoD have nonetheless in common the same approach for problem analysis and communication within a group of actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through the mDSS software.Social Network, Integrated Analysis, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support

A system to integrate unstructured and semistructured information resources: an application in an innovation design process

A system that integrates different tools, from multicriteria analysis and mathematical programming but also cognitive and social psychology, can be proposed to cope with complexities and uncertainties that generate criticality in the socio technical approach. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potentialities of this system, above all in terms of information fusion and use in various contexts, and to propose an application in relation to an industrial project, in order to support the conceptual phase of the design processr

A system to integrate unstructured and semistructured information resources: an application in an innovation design process

A system that integrates different tools, from multicriteria analysis and mathematical programming but also cognitive and social psychology, can be proposed to cope with complexities and uncertainties that generate criticality in the socio technical approach. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potentialities of this system, above all in terms of information fusion and use in various contexts, and to propose an application in relation to an industrial project, in order to support the conceptual phase of the design processre

Preference Learning

This report documents the program and the outcomes of Dagstuhl Seminar 14101 “Preference Learning”. Preferences have recently received considerable attention in disciplines such as machine learning, knowledge discovery, information retrieval, statistics, social choice theory, multiple criteria decision making, decision under risk and uncertainty, operations research, and others. The motivation for this seminar was to showcase recent progress in these different areas with the goal of working towards a common basis of understanding, which should help to facilitate future synergies

State-of-the-Art Report on Systems Analysis Methods for Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resources Management

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the wo rld is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war. Water systems have been targets during the war. A role of systems approach has been investigated in this report as an approach for resolution of conflicts over water. A review of systems approach provides some basic knowledge of tools and techniques as they apply to water management and conflict resolution. Report provides a classification and description of water conflicts by addressing issues of scale, integrated water management and the role of stakeholders. Four large-scale examples are selected to illustrate the application of systems approach to water conflicts: (a) hydropower development in Canada; (b) multipurpose use of Danube river in Europe; (c) international water conflict between USA and Canada; and (d) Aral See in Asia. Water conflict resolution process involves various sources of uncertainty. One section of the report provides some examples of systems tools that can be used to address objective and subjective uncertainties with special emphasis on the utility of the fuzzy set theory. Systems analysis is known to be driven by the development of computer technology. Last section of the report provides one view of the future and systems tools that will be used for water resources management. Role of the virtual databases, computer and communication networks is investigated in the context of water conflicts and their resolution.https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/1005/thumbnail.jp

Participatory approaches to foresight and priority-setting in innovation networks

In innovation networks, participatory foresight activities can typically have several functions. They can be seen as a tool for supporting decision-making on science and technology (S&T) priorities, but they can also be expected to contribute to the structures of a network beyond the scope of decision making. Foresight activities are often limited by tight timeframes, budgets and they need to be synchronized with other S&T processes. In this setting there is a need for tools that reflect foresight process owners' visions on trade-offs between objectives that are more important than others, and goals that can be achieved, given relevant constraints. This thesis develops, deploys and analyzes decision analytic methodologies for participatory foresight and priority-setting. The methodology enables foresight managers to adjust their foresight process to serve multiple goals and place emphasis on the objectives that are seen as most important. Foresight processes can be adjusted to meet the desired objectives by i) selecting a suitable "unit of analysis" for the analysis and discussion, ii) defining an appropriate composition of stakeholders for the different phases of the process, iii) different uses of decision analytic methodologies and iv) varying emphases on internet surveys, decision analysis, and face-to-face workshops. This thesis consists of six articles, where variants of the methodology are applied in different contexts. The articles include reflections from foresight activities carried out in support of management processes in Finnish industry clusters and in international research programs. They also include case studies from public S&T policy making, supporting the identification of small niche areas as well as providing input for decision-making on national innovation policies

New Models of Technology Assessment for Development

This report explores the role that ‘new models’ of technology assessment can play in improving the lives of poor and vulnerable populations in the developing world. The ‘new models’ addressed here combine citizen and decision-maker participation with technical expertise. They are virtual and networked rather than being based in a single office of technology assessment (as was the case in the United States in the 1970s-90s). They are flexible enough to address issues across disciplines and are increasingly transnational or global in their reach and scope. The report argues that these new models of technology assessment can make a vital contribution to informing policies and strategies around innovation, particularly in developing regions. They are most beneficial if they enable the broadening out of inputs to technology assessment, and the opening up of political debate around possible directions of technological change and their interactions with social and environmental systems. Beyond the process of technology assessment itself, the report argues that governance systems within which these processes are embedded play an important role in determining the impact and effectiveness of technology assessment. Finally, the report argues for training and capacity-building in technology assessment methodologies in developing countries, and support for internationally co-ordinated technology assessment efforts to address global and regional development challenges

Analyzing decision making in software design

A model is given for the analysis of rationality in design decision making. We define a formal means for answering the query, To what extent has a designer, on a particular occasion, using an explicit definition of 'good', decided rationally?A decision rationality classification scheme is proposed. This scheme incorporates non-compensatory decision analysis techniques (dominance and conjunctive cut-off) as well as compensatory techniques (simple and hierarchical additive weighting, linear assignment, concordance, and displaced ideal). A formal definition of design decision is derived by extending the Lehman, Stenning, Turski transformational model of the software design process. Their view of artifact specification mappings between linguistic systems is extended to include the concomitant effect of the mapping on resource expenditure.A formal specification for decision control knowledge is defined. This representation is the union of that knowledge required to support the various decision analysis techniques. Presumed to operationalize a designer's goals, the knowledge representation scheme includes five levels:1. Each objective expresses some relevant design concern for an artifact and/or resource characteristic.2. Each criterion expresses some relevant decomposition of a superior objective or criterion.3. Each attribute expresses the bottom-most decomposition for a superior criterion. Each attribute may have a weight indicating its relative contribution to its superior criterion.4. For each attribute, a value function expresses the designer's preference ordering over observed performance for an attribute.5. For each attribute, an observation channel describes an observer independent metric over some specification (either resource or artifact) rendered in some linguistic system and a procedure for application of that metric.Our model is applied to problems in Structured Design and conceptual data modeling. We argue that a comprehensive design history must include not only the transformations applied but also the rationale used in deciding their application. This rationale must include decision control knowledge governing both artifact (product) and resource (process) facets of design decision making. The principal contribution of this work is that the opacity of the decision intensive aspects of design are reduced thereby taking a necessary step for increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of software development