Arriving on time: estimating travel time distributions on large-scale road networks

Most optimal routing problems focus on minimizing travel time or distance traveled. Oftentimes, a more useful objective is to maximize the probability of on-time arrival, which requires statistical distributions of travel times, rather than just mean values. We propose a method to estimate travel time distributions on large-scale road networks, using probe vehicle data collected from GPS. We present a framework that works with large input of data, and scales linearly with the size of the network. Leveraging the planar topology of the graph, the method computes efficiently the time correlations between neighboring streets. First, raw probe vehicle traces are compressed into pairs of travel times and number of stops for each traversed road segment using a `stop-and-go' algorithm developed for this work. The compressed data is then used as input for training a path travel time model, which couples a Markov model along with a Gaussian Markov random field. Finally, scalable inference algorithms are developed for obtaining path travel time distributions from the composite MM-GMRF model. We illustrate the accuracy and scalability of our model on a 505,000 road link network spanning the San Francisco Bay Area

Truck Driver Behavior and Travel Time Effectiveness Using Smart GPS

The pattern of coal transportation is very dependent on the behaviour of the driver, which influences the effectiveness of travel time. Good driver behaviour will affect the optimization of travel time, and scenarios need to reduce travel time wastage. This study aims to optimize travel time and sensitivity analysis based on the influence of driver behaviour, truck travel movements and the use of travel time on coal haul roads. The research method uses a field survey with a GPS tracker, a smart GPS server 3.3, google earth and statistics. The results showed that the driver's behaviour greatly influenced the pattern of use of travel time and truck travel speed. Coal transportation in the morning can be more optimal than night so that that travel time wastage can reduced by 40%. The proposed optimization scenarios can save 36.7% - 48.61% of the existing travel time and the transport cycle can be increased to four to five times. So that with the addition of the cycle, it will increase the income of the transport company and the driver's income. With smart GPS, companies can improve the performance of transportation services in company management, get coal supplies on time

Citywide Estimation of Traffic Dynamics via Sparse GPS Traces

Traffic congestion is a perpetual challenge in metropolitan areas around the world. The ability to understand traffic dynamics is thus critical to effective traffic control and management. However, estimation of traffic conditions over a large-scale road network has proven to be a challenging task for two reasons: first, traffic conditions are intrinsically stochastic; second, the availability and quality of traffic data vary to a great extent. Traditional traffic monitoring systems that exist mostly on major roads and highways are insufficient to recover the traffic conditions for an entire network. Recent advances in GPS technology and the resulting rich data sets offer new opportunities to improve upon such traditional means, by providing much broader coverage of road networks. Despite that, such data are limited by their spatial-temporal sparsity in practice. To address these issues, we have developed a novel framework to estimate travel times, traversed paths, and missing values over a large-scale road network using sparse GPS traces. Our method consists of two phases. In the first phase, we adopt the shortest travel time criterion based on Wardrop\u27s Principles in the map-matching process. With an improved traveltime allocation technique, we have achieved up to 52.5% relative error reduction in network travel times compared to a state-of-the-art method [1]. In the second phase, we estimate missing values using Compressed Sensing algorithm, thereby reducing the number of required measurements by 94.64%

Crowdsourcing traffic data for travel time estimation

Travel time estimation is a fundamental measure used in routing and navigation applications, in particular in emerging intelligent transportation systems (ITS). For example, many users may prefer the fastest route to their destination and would rely on real-time predicted travel times. It also helps real-time traffic management and traffic light control. Accurate estimation of travel time requires collecting a lot of real-time data from road networks. This data can be collected using a wide variety of sources like inductive loop detectors, video cameras, radio frequency identification (RFID) transponders etc. But these systems include deployment of infrastructure which has some limitations and drawbacks. The main drawbacks in these modes are the high cost and the high probability of error caused by prevalence of equipment malfunctions and in the case of sensor based methods, the problem of spatial coverage.;As an alternative to traditional way of collecting data using expensive equipment, development of cellular & mobile technology allows for leveraging embedded GPS sensors in smartphones carried by millions of road users. Crowd-sourcing GPS data will allow building traffic monitoring systems that utilize this opportunity for the purpose of accurate and real-time prediction of traffic measures. However, the effectiveness of these systems have not yet been proven or shown in real applications. In this thesis, we study some of the current available data sets and identify the requirements for accurate prediction. In our work, we propose the design for a crowd-sourcing traffic application, including an android-based mobile client and a server architecture. We also develop map-matching method. More importantly, we present prediction methods using machine learning techniques such as support vector regression.;Machine learning provides an alternative to traditional statistical method such as using averaged historic data for estimation of travel time. Machine Learning techniques played a key role in estimation in the last two decades. They are proved by providing better accuracy in estimation and in classification. However, employing a machine learning technique in any application requires creative modeling of the system and its sensory data. In this thesis, we model the road network as a graph and train different models for different links on the road. Modeling a road network as graph with nodes and links enables the learner to capture patterns occurring on each segment of road, thereby providing better accuracy. To evaluate the prediction models, we use three sets of data out of which two sets are collected using mobile probing and one set is generated using VISSIM traffic simulator. The results show that crowdsourcing is only more accurate than traditional statistical methods if the input values for input data are very close to the actual values. In particular, when speed of vehicles on a link are concerned, we need to provide the machine learning model with data that is only few minutes old; using average speed of vehicles, for example from the past half hour, as is usually seen in many web based traffic information sources may not allow for better performance

Errors and Truths from Transportation Data Aggregation: Some Implications for Research and Practice

Data aggregation, which is a process to combine information by defined groups for statistical analysis, summary, data size reduction, or other purposes, has fundamental challenges, such as loss of the original information. Improper data aggregation, such as sampling bias or incorrect calculation of average, may cause misreading of information. In first chapter, it is revealed that the harmonic mean, which is used to calculate space mean speed for fixed segment, has a sampling bias, i.e., overestimation with small samples. The several impact analyses show that the sampling bias is affected by sampling rate, time interval, segment length, and distribution type. If the data aggregation is properly used, it can help us improve analytical efficiency, encounter some of critical problems, or reveal its casualties and other relevant information. Second and third chapters utilize the aggregation of multi-source data to estimate error distributions of data sources and improve accuracy of their measurements. This is a leaping point of evaluating data sources as the proposed model does not require ground truth data. Second chapter focuses more on the methodology, i.e., a modified Approximate Bayesian Computation, incorporated to construct the error distribution with numerous simulations. In the simulated experiment, the proposed model outperformed the alternative approach, which is a conventional way of evaluating data source that is gathering error information by comparing with ground data source. Several sensitivity analyses explore that how the model performance is affected by sample size, number of data sources, and distribution types. The proposed model in chapter II is limited to one dimensional variable, and then the application is expanded to improving the position and distance measurement of connected vehicle environment. The proposed model can be used to further improve the accuracy of vehicle positioning with other existing methods, such as simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). The estimation process can be conducted in real-time operation, and the learning process will try to keep improving the accuracy of estimation. The results show that the proposed model noticeably improves the accuracy of position and distance measurements