Most optimal routing problems focus on minimizing travel time or distance
traveled. Oftentimes, a more useful objective is to maximize the probability of
on-time arrival, which requires statistical distributions of travel times,
rather than just mean values. We propose a method to estimate travel time
distributions on large-scale road networks, using probe vehicle data collected
from GPS. We present a framework that works with large input of data, and
scales linearly with the size of the network. Leveraging the planar topology of
the graph, the method computes efficiently the time correlations between
neighboring streets. First, raw probe vehicle traces are compressed into pairs
of travel times and number of stops for each traversed road segment using a
`stop-and-go' algorithm developed for this work. The compressed data is then
used as input for training a path travel time model, which couples a Markov
model along with a Gaussian Markov random field. Finally, scalable inference
algorithms are developed for obtaining path travel time distributions from the
composite MM-GMRF model. We illustrate the accuracy and scalability of our
model on a 505,000 road link network spanning the San Francisco Bay Area