Fluid passage-time calculation in large Markov models

Recent developments in the analysis of large Markov models facilitate the fast approximation of transient characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. So-called fluid analysis makes it possible to consider previously intractable models whose underlying discrete state space grows exponentially as model components are added. In this work, we show how fluid approximation techniques may be used to extract passage-time measures from performance models. We focus on two types of passage measure: passage-times involving individual components; as well as passage-times which capture the time taken for a population of components to evolve. Specifically, we show that for models of sufficient scale, passage-time distributions can be well approximated by a deterministic fluid-derived passage-time measure. Where models are not of sufficient scale, we are able to generate approximate bounds for the entire cumulative distribution function of these passage-time random variables, using moment-based techniques. Finally, we show that for some passage-time measures involving individual components the cumulative distribution function can be directly approximated by fluid techniques

Fluid Model Checking of Timed Properties

We address the problem of verifying timed properties of Markovian models of large populations of interacting agents, modelled as finite state automata. In particular, we focus on time-bounded properties of (random) individual agents specified by Deterministic Timed Automata (DTA) endowed with a single clock. Exploiting ideas from fluid approximation, we estimate the satisfaction probability of the DTA properties by reducing it to the computation of the transient probability of a subclass of Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Renewal Processes with exponentially and deterministically-timed transitions, and a small state space. For this subclass of models, we show how to derive a set of Delay Differential Equations (DDE), whose numerical solution provides a fast and accurate estimate of the satisfaction probability. In the paper, we also prove the asymptotic convergence of the approach, and exemplify the method on a simple epidemic spreading model. Finally, we also show how to construct a system of DDEs to efficiently approximate the average number of agents that satisfy the DTA specification

Continuous feedback fluid queues

We investigate a fluid buffer which is modulated by a stochastic background process, while the momentary behavior of the background process depends on the current buffer level in a continuous way. Loosely speaking the feedback is such that the background process behaves `as a Markov process' with generator $Q(y)$ at times when the buffer level is $y$, where the entries of $Q(y)$ are continuous functions of $y$. Moreover, the flow rates for the buffer may also depend continuously on the current buffer level. Such models are interesting in the context of closed-loop telecommunication networks, in which sources interact with network buffers, but may also be deployed in the study of certain production systems. \u

Linear Stochastic Fluid Networks: Rare-Event Simulation and Markov Modulation

We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient importance sampling algorithms with provable performance guarantees. For linear stochastic fluid networks without modulation, we prove that the number of runs needed (so as to obtain an estimate with a given precision) increases polynomially (whereas the probability under consideration decays essentially exponentially); for networks operating in the slow modulation regime, our algorithm is asymptotically efficient. Our techniques are in the tradition of the rare-event simulation procedures that were developed for the sample-mean of i.i.d. one-dimensional light-tailed random variables, and intensively use the idea of exponential twisting. In passing, we also point out how to set up a recursion to evaluate the (transient and stationary) moments of the joint storage level in Markov-modulated linear stochastic fluid networks

Fluctuations in Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics: Models, Mathematical Theory, Physical Mechanisms

The fluctuations in nonequilibrium systems are under intense theoretical and experimental investigation. Topical ``fluctuation relations'' describe symmetries of the statistical properties of certain observables, in a variety of models and phenomena. They have been derived in deterministic and, later, in stochastic frameworks. Other results first obtained for stochastic processes, and later considered in deterministic dynamics, describe the temporal evolution of fluctuations. The field has grown beyond expectation: research works and different perspectives are proposed at an ever faster pace. Indeed, understanding fluctuations is important for the emerging theory of nonequilibrium phenomena, as well as for applications, such as those of nanotechnological and biophysical interest. However, the links among the different approaches and the limitations of these approaches are not fully understood. We focus on these issues, providing: a) analysis of the theoretical models; b) discussion of the rigorous mathematical results; c) identification of the physical mechanisms underlying the validity of the theoretical predictions, for a wide range of phenomena.Comment: 44 pages, 2 figures. To appear in Nonlinearity (2007

Coarse Brownian Dynamics for Nematic Liquid Crystals: Bifurcation Diagrams via Stochastic Simulation

We demonstrate how time-integration of stochastic differential equations (i.e. Brownian dynamics simulations) can be combined with continuum numerical bifurcation analysis techniques to analyze the dynamics of liquid crystalline polymers (LCPs). Sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures, the approach analyzes the (unavailable in closed form) coarse macroscopic equations, estimating the necessary quantities through appropriately initialized, short bursts of Brownian dynamics simulation. Through this approach, both stable and unstable branches of the equilibrium bifurcation diagram are obtained for the Doi model of LCPs and their coarse stability is estimated. Additional macroscopic computational tasks enabled through this approach, such as coarse projective integration and coarse stabilizing controller design, are also demonstrated