Genealogies of rapidly adapting populations

The genetic diversity of a species is shaped by its recent evolutionary history and can be used to infer demographic events or selective sweeps. Most inference methods are based on the null hypothesis that natural selection is a weak or infrequent evolutionary force. However, many species, particularly pathogens, are under continuous pressure to adapt in response to changing environments. A statistical framework for inference from diversity data of such populations is currently lacking. Toward this goal, we explore the properties of genealogies in a model of continual adaptation in asexual populations. We show that lineages trace back to a small pool of highly fit ancestors, in which almost simultaneous coalescence of more than two lineages frequently occurs. While such multiple mergers are unlikely under the neutral coalescent, they create a unique genetic footprint in adapting populations. The site frequency spectrum of derived neutral alleles, for example, is non-monotonic and has a peak at high frequencies, whereas Tajima's D becomes more and more negative with increasing sample size. Since multiple merger coalescents emerge in many models of rapid adaptation, we argue that they should be considered as a null-model for adapting populations.Comment: to appear in PNA

Robust forward simulations of recurrent hitchhiking

Evolutionary forces shape patterns of genetic diversity within populations and contribute to phenotypic variation. In particular, recurrent positive selection has attracted significant interest in both theoretical and empirical studies. However, most existing theoretical models of recurrent positive selection cannot easily incorporate realistic confounding effects such as interference between selected sites, arbitrary selection schemes, and complicated demographic processes. It is possible to quantify the effects of arbitrarily complex evolutionary models by performing forward population genetic simulations, but forward simulations can be computationally prohibitive for large population sizes ($> 10^5$). A common approach for overcoming these computational limitations is rescaling of the most computationally expensive parameters, especially population size. Here, we show that ad hoc approaches to parameter rescaling under the recurrent hitchhiking model do not always provide sufficiently accurate dynamics, potentially skewing patterns of diversity in simulated DNA sequences. We derive an extension of the recurrent hitchhiking model that is appropriate for strong selection in small population sizes, and use it to develop a method for parameter rescaling that provides the best possible computational performance for a given error tolerance. We perform a detailed theoretical analysis of the robustness of rescaling across the parameter space. Finally, we apply our rescaling algorithms to parameters that were previously inferred for Drosophila, and discuss practical considerations such as interference between selected sites