2,563 research outputs found
Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design
Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design [arXiv:0708.0279]Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000547 in the
Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
A Case-Based Reasoning Method for Locating Evidence During Digital Forensic Device Triage
The role of triage in digital forensics is disputed, with some practitioners questioning its reliability for identifying evidential data. Although successfully implemented in the field of medicine, triage has not established itself to the same degree in digital forensics. This article presents a novel approach to triage for digital forensics. Case-Based Reasoning Forensic Triager (CBR-FT) is a method for collecting and reusing past digital forensic investigation information in order to highlight likely evidential areas on a suspect operating system, thereby helping an investigator to decide where to search for evidence. The CBR-FT framework is discussed and the results of twenty test triage examinations are presented. CBR-FT has been shown to be a more effective method of triage when compared to a practitioner using a leading commercial application
When Rational Reasoners Reason Differently
Different people reason differently, which means that sometimes they reach different conclusions from the same evidence. We maintain that this is not only natural, but rational. In this essay we explore the epistemology of that state of affairs. First we will canvass arguments for and against the claim that rational methods of reasoning must always reach the same conclusions from the same evidence. Then we will consider whether the acknowledgment that people have divergent rational reasoning methods should undermine one’s confidence in one’s own reasoning. Finally we will explore how agents who employ distinct yet equally rational methods of reasoning should respond to interactions with the products of each others’ reasoning. We find that the epistemology of multiple reasoning methods has been misunderstood by a number of authors writing on epistemic permissiveness and peer disagreement
Solving multiple-criteria R&D project selection problems with a data-driven evidential reasoning rule
In this paper, a likelihood based evidence acquisition approach is proposed
to acquire evidence from experts'assessments as recorded in historical
datasets. Then a data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model is
introduced to R&D project selection process by combining multiple pieces of
evidence with different weights and reliabilities. As a result, the total
belief degrees and the overall performance can be generated for ranking and
selecting projects. Finally, a case study on the R&D project selection for the
National Science Foundation of China is conducted to show the effectiveness of
the proposed model. The data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model for
project evaluation and selection (1) utilizes experimental data to represent
experts' assessments by using belief distributions over the set of final
funding outcomes, and through this historic statistics it helps experts and
applicants to understand the funding probability to a given assessment grade,
(2) implies the mapping relationships between the evaluation grades and the
final funding outcomes by using historical data, and (3) provides a way to make
fair decisions by taking experts' reliabilities into account. In the
data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model, experts play different roles
in accordance with their reliabilities which are determined by their previous
review track records, and the selection process is made interpretable and
fairer. The newly proposed model reduces the time-consuming panel review work
for both managers and experts, and significantly improves the efficiency and
quality of project selection process. Although the model is demonstrated for
project selection in the NSFC, it can be generalized to other funding agencies
or industries.Comment: 20 pages, forthcoming in International Journal of Project Management
(2019
A Labelling Framework for Probabilistic Argumentation
The combination of argumentation and probability paves the way to new
accounts of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty, thereby offering new
theoretical and applicative opportunities. Due to a variety of interests,
probabilistic argumentation is approached in the literature with different
frameworks, pertaining to structured and abstract argumentation, and with
respect to diverse types of uncertainty, in particular the uncertainty on the
credibility of the premises, the uncertainty about which arguments to consider,
and the uncertainty on the acceptance status of arguments or statements.
Towards a general framework for probabilistic argumentation, we investigate a
labelling-oriented framework encompassing a basic setting for rule-based
argumentation and its (semi-) abstract account, along with diverse types of
uncertainty. Our framework provides a systematic treatment of various kinds of
uncertainty and of their relationships and allows us to back or question
assertions from the literature
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