Is One Hyperparameter Optimizer Enough?

Hyperparameter tuning is the black art of automatically finding a good combination of control parameters for a data miner. While widely applied in empirical Software Engineering, there has not been much discussion on which hyperparameter tuner is best for software analytics. To address this gap in the literature, this paper applied a range of hyperparameter optimizers (grid search, random search, differential evolution, and Bayesian optimization) to defect prediction problem. Surprisingly, no hyperparameter optimizer was observed to be `best' and, for one of the two evaluation measures studied here (F-measure), hyperparameter optimization, in 50\% cases, was no better than using default configurations. We conclude that hyperparameter optimization is more nuanced than previously believed. While such optimization can certainly lead to large improvements in the performance of classifiers used in software analytics, it remains to be seen which specific optimizers should be applied to a new dataset.Comment: 7 pages, 2 columns, accepted for SWAN1

Is "Better Data" Better than "Better Data Miners"? (On the Benefits of Tuning SMOTE for Defect Prediction)

We report and fix an important systematic error in prior studies that ranked classifiers for software analytics. Those studies did not (a) assess classifiers on multiple criteria and they did not (b) study how variations in the data affect the results. Hence, this paper applies (a) multi-criteria tests while (b) fixing the weaker regions of the training data (using SMOTUNED, which is a self-tuning version of SMOTE). This approach leads to dramatically large increases in software defect predictions. When applied in a 5*5 cross-validation study for 3,681 JAVA classes (containing over a million lines of code) from open source systems, SMOTUNED increased AUC and recall by 60% and 20% respectively. These improvements are independent of the classifier used to predict for quality. Same kind of pattern (improvement) was observed when a comparative analysis of SMOTE and SMOTUNED was done against the most recent class imbalance technique. In conclusion, for software analytic tasks like defect prediction, (1) data pre-processing can be more important than classifier choice, (2) ranking studies are incomplete without such pre-processing, and (3) SMOTUNED is a promising candidate for pre-processing.Comment: 10 pages + 2 references. Accepted to International Conference of Software Engineering (ICSE), 201

Is "Better Data" Better than "Better Data Miners"? (On the Benefits of Tuning SMOTE for Defect Prediction)

We report and fix an important systematic error in prior studies that ranked classifiers for software analytics. Those studies did not (a) assess classifiers on multiple criteria and they did not (b) study how variations in the data affect the results. Hence, this paper applies (a) multi-criteria tests while (b) fixing the weaker regions of the training data (using SMOTUNED, which is a self-tuning version of SMOTE). This approach leads to dramatically large increases in software defect predictions. When applied in a 5*5 cross-validation study for 3,681 JAVA classes (containing over a million lines of code) from open source systems, SMOTUNED increased AUC and recall by 60% and 20% respectively. These improvements are independent of the classifier used to predict for quality. Same kind of pattern (improvement) was observed when a comparative analysis of SMOTE and SMOTUNED was done against the most recent class imbalance technique. In conclusion, for software analytic tasks like defect prediction, (1) data pre-processing can be more important than classifier choice, (2) ranking studies are incomplete without such pre-processing, and (3) SMOTUNED is a promising candidate for pre-processing.Comment: 10 pages + 2 references. Accepted to International Conference of Software Engineering (ICSE), 201

Validating a neural network-based online adaptive system

Neural networks are popular models used for online adaptation to accommodate system faults and recuperate against environmental changes in real-time automation and control applications. However, the adaptivity limits the applicability of conventional verification and validation (V&V) techniques to such systems. We investigated the V&V of neural network-based online adaptive systems and developed a novel validation approach consisting of two important methods. (1) An independent novelty detector at the system input layer detects failure conditions and tracks abnormal events/data that may cause unstable learning behavior. (2) At the system output layer, we perform a validity check on the network predictions to validate its accommodation performance.;Our research focuses on the Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) for NASA F-15 aircraft as an example of online adaptive control application. We utilized Support Vector Data Description (SVDD), a one-class classifier to examine the data entering the adaptive component and detect potential failures. We developed a decompose and combine strategy to drastically reduce its computational cost, from O(n 3) down to O( n32 log n) such that the novelty detector becomes feasible in real-time.;We define a confidence measure, the validity index, to validate the predictions of the Dynamic Cell Structure (DCS) network in IFCS. The statistical information is collected during adaptation. The validity index is computed to reflect the trustworthiness associated with each neural network output. The computation of validity index in DCS is straightforward and efficient.;Through experimentation with IFCS, we demonstrate that: (1) the SVDD tool detects system failures accurately and provides validation inferences in a real-time manner; (2) the validity index effectively indicates poor fitting within regions characterized by sparse data and/or inadequate learning. The developed methods can be integrated with available online monitoring tools and further generalized to complete a promising validation framework for neural network based online adaptive systems

Empirically-Grounded Construction of Bug Prediction and Detection Tools

There is an increasing demand on high-quality software as software bugs have an economic impact not only on software projects, but also on national economies in general. Software quality is achieved via the main quality assurance activities of testing and code reviewing. However, these activities are expensive, thus they need to be carried out efficiently. Auxiliary software quality tools such as bug detection and bug prediction tools help developers focus their testing and reviewing activities on the parts of software that more likely contain bugs. However, these tools are far from adoption as mainstream development tools. Previous research points to their inability to adapt to the peculiarities of projects and their high rate of false positives as the main obstacles of their adoption. We propose empirically-grounded analysis to improve the adaptability and efficiency of bug detection and prediction tools. For a bug detector to be efficient, it needs to detect bugs that are conspicuous, frequent, and specific to a software project. We empirically show that the null-related bugs fulfill these criteria and are worth building detectors for. We analyze the null dereferencing problem and find that its root cause lies in methods that return null. We propose an empirical solution to this problem that depends on the wisdom of the crowd. For each API method, we extract the nullability measure that expresses how often the return value of this method is checked against null in the ecosystem of the API. We use nullability to annotate API methods with nullness annotation and warn developers about missing and excessive null checks. For a bug predictor to be efficient, it needs to be optimized as both a machine learning model and a software quality tool. We empirically show how feature selection and hyperparameter optimizations improve prediction accuracy. Then we optimize bug prediction to locate the maximum number of bugs in the minimum amount of code by finding the most cost-effective combination of bug prediction configurations, i.e., dependent variables, machine learning model, and response variable. We show that using both source code and change metrics as dependent variables, applying feature selection on them, then using an optimized Random Forest to predict the number of bugs results in the most cost-effective bug predictor. Throughout this thesis, we show how empirically-grounded analysis helps us achieve efficient bug prediction and detection tools and adapt them to the characteristics of each software project