Sensor based real-time process monitoring for ultra-precision manufacturing processes with non-linearity and non-stationarity

This research investigates methodologies for real-time process monitoring in ultra-precision manufacturing processes, specifically, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) and ultra-precision machining (UPM), are investigated in this dissertation.The three main components of this research are as follows: (1) developing a predictive modeling approaches for early detection of process anomalies/change points, (2) devising approaches that can capture the non-Gaussian and non-stationary characteristics of CMP and UPM processes, and (3) integrating multiple sensor data to make more reliable process related decisions in real-time.In the first part, we establish a quantitative relationship between CMP process performance, such as material removal rate (MRR) and data acquired from wireless vibration sensors. Subsequently, a non-linear sequential Bayesian analysis is integrated with decision theoretic concepts for detection of CMP process end-point for blanket copper wafers. Using this approach, CMP polishing end-point was detected within a 5% error rate.Next, a non-parametric Bayesian analytical approach is utilized to capture the inherently complex, non-Gaussian, and non-stationary sensor signal patterns observed in CMP process. An evolutionary clustering analysis, called Recurrent Nested Dirichlet Process (RNDP) approach is developed for monitoring CMP process changes using MEMS vibration signals. Using this novel signal analysis approach, process drifts are detected within 20 milliseconds and is assessed to be 3-7 times faster than traditional SPC charts. This is very beneficial to the industry from an application standpoint, because, wafer yield losses will be mitigated to a great extent, if the onset of CMP process drifts can be detected timely and accurately.Lastly, a non-parametric Bayesian modeling approach, termed Dirichlet Process (DP) is combined with a multi-level hierarchical information fusion technique for monitoring of surface finish in UPM process. Using this approach, signal patterns from six different sensors (three axis vibration and force) are integrated based on information fusion theory. It was observed that using experimental UPM sensor data that process decisions based on the multiple sensor information fusion approach were 15%-30% more accurate than the decisions from individual sensors. This will enable more accurate and reliable estimation of process conditions in ultra-precision manufacturing applications

Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review

With the privatization and intense competition that characterize the volatile energy sector, the gas turbine industry currently faces new challenges of increasing operational flexibility, reducing operating costs, improving reliability and availability while mitigating the environmental impact. In this complex, changing sector, the gas turbine community could address a set of these challenges by further development of high fidelity, more accurate and computationally efficient engine health assessment, diagnostic and prognostic systems. Recent studies have shown that engine gas-path performance monitoring still remains the cornerstone for making informed decisions in operation and maintenance of gas turbines. This paper offers a systematic review of recently developed engine performance monitoring, diagnostic and prognostic techniques. The inception of performance monitoring and its evolution over time, techniques used to establish a high-quality dataset using engine model performance adaptation, and effects of computationally intelligent techniques on promoting the implementation of engine fault diagnosis are reviewed. Moreover, recent developments in prognostics techniques designed to enhance the maintenance decision-making scheme and main causes of gas turbine performance deterioration are discussed to facilitate the fault identification module. The article aims to organize, evaluate and identify patterns and trends in the literature as well as recognize research gaps and recommend new research areas in the field of gas turbine performance-based monitoring. The presented insightful concepts provide experts, students or novice researchers and decision-makers working in the area of gas turbine engines with the state of the art for performance-based condition monitoring

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 1: Modeling and Twinning Enabling Technologies

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This first paper presents a thorough literature review of digital twin trends across many disciplines currently pursuing this area of research. Then, digital twin modeling and twinning enabling technologies are further analyzed by classifying them into two main categories: physical-to-virtual, and virtual-to-physical, based on the direction in which data flows. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the trajectory of digital twin technology over the next decade, and introduces a few emerging areas of research which will likely be of great use in future digital twin research. In part two of this review, the role of uncertainty quantification and optimization are discussed, a battery digital twin is demonstrated, and more perspectives on the future of digital twin are shared

Uncertainty quantification and its properties for hidden Markov models with application to condition based maintenance

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) can be viewed as a transformation of data gathered from a piece of equipment into information about its condition, and further into decisions on what to do with the equipment. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a useful framework to probabilistically model the condition of complex engineering systems with partial observability of the underlying states. Condition monitoring and prediction of such type of system requires accurate knowledge of HMM that describes the degradation of such a system with data collected from the sensors mounted on it, as well as understanding of the uncertainty of the HMMs identified from the available data. To that end, this thesis proposes a novel HMM estimation scheme based on the principles of Bayes theorem. The newly proposed Bayesian estimation approach for estimating HMM parameters naturally yields information about model parametric uncertainties via posterior distributions of HMM parameters emanating from the estimation process. In addition, a novel condition monitoring scheme based on uncertain HMMs of the degradation process is proposed and demonstrated on a large dataset obtained from a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Portion of the data was used to build operating mode specific HMMs of machine degradation via the newly proposed Bayesian estimation process, while the remainder of the data was used for monitoring of machine condition using the uncertain degradation HMMs yielded by Bayesian estimation. Comparison with a traditional signature-based statistical monitoring method showed that the newly proposed approach effectively utilizes the fact that its parameters are uncertain themselves, leading to orders of magnitude fewer false alarms. This methodology is further extended to address the practical issue that maintenance interventions are usually imperfect. We propose both a novel non-ergodic and non-homogeneous HMM that assumes imperfect maintenances and a novel process monitoring method capable of monitoring the hidden states considering model uncertainty. Significant improvement in both the log-likelihood of estimated HMM parameters and monitoring performance were observed, compared to those obtained using degradation HMMs that always assumed perfect maintenance. Finally, behavior of the posterior distribution of parameters of unidirectional non- ergodic HMMs modeling in this thesis for degradation was theoretically analyzed in terms of their evolution as more data become available in the estimation process. The convergence problem is formulated as a Bernstein-von Mises theorem (BvMT), and under certain regularity conditions, the sequence of posterior distributions is proven to converge to a Gaussian distribution with variance matrix being the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. An example of a unidirectional HMM is presented for which the regularity conditions are verified, and illustrations of expected theoretical results are given using simulation. The understanding of such convergence of posterior distributions enables one to determine when Bayesian estimation of degradation HMMs is justified and converges toward true model parameters, as well as how much data one then needs to achieve desired accuracy of the resulting model. Understanding of these issues is of utmost important if HMMs are to be used for degradation modeling and monitoring.Operations Research and Industrial Engineerin

Prognostic Algorithms for Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

To enable the benets of a truly condition-based maintenance philosophy to be realised, robust, accurate and reliable algorithms, which provide maintenance personnel with the necessary information to make informed maintenance decisions, will be key. This thesis focuses on the development of such algorithms, with a focus on semiconductor manufacturing and wind turbines. An introduction to condition-based maintenance is presented which reviews dierent types of maintenance philosophies and describes the potential benets which a condition- based maintenance philosophy will deliver to operators of critical plant and machinery. The issues and challenges involved in developing condition-based maintenance solutions are discussed and a review of previous approaches and techniques in fault diagnostics and prognostics is presented. The development of a condition monitoring system for dry vacuum pumps used in semi- conductor manufacturing is presented. A notable feature is that upstream process mea- surements from the wafer processing chamber were incorporated in the development of a solution. In general, semiconductor manufacturers do not make such information avail- able and this study identies the benets of information sharing in the development of condition monitoring solutions, within the semiconductor manufacturing domain. The developed solution provides maintenance personnel with the ability to identify, quantify, track and predict the remaining useful life of pumps suering from degradation caused by pumping large volumes of corrosive uorine gas. A comprehensive condition monitoring solution for thermal abatement systems is also presented. As part of this work, a multiple model particle ltering algorithm for prog- nostics is developed and tested. The capabilities of the proposed prognostic solution for addressing the uncertainty challenges in predicting the remaining useful life of abatement systems, subject to uncertain future operating loads and conditions, is demonstrated. Finally, a condition monitoring algorithm for the main bearing on large utility scale wind turbines is developed. The developed solution exploits data collected by onboard supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems in wind turbines. As a result, the developed solution can be integrated into existing monitoring systems, at no additional cost. The potential for the application of multiple model particle ltering algorithm to wind turbine prognostics is also demonstrated

An investigation into the prognosis of electromagnetic relays.

Electrical contacts provide a well-proven solution to switching various loads in a wide variety of applications, such as power distribution, control applications, automotive and telecommunications. However, electrical contacts are known for limited reliability due to degradation effects upon the switching contacts due to arcing and fretting. Essentially, the life of the device may be determined by the limited life of the contacts. Failure to trip, spurious tripping and contact welding can, in critical applications such as control systems for avionics and nuclear power application, cause significant costs due to downtime, as well as safety implications. Prognostics provides a way to assess the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operating conditions. In this thesis, the effects of contact wear on a set of electromagnetic relays used in an avionic power controller is examined, and how contact resistance combined with a prognostic approach, can be used to ascertain the RUL of the device. Two methodologies are presented, firstly a Physics based Model (PbM) of the degradation using the predicted material loss due to arc damage. Secondly a computationally efficient technique using posterior degradation data to form a state space model in real time via a Sliding Window Recursive Least Squares (SWRLS) algorithm. Health monitoring using the presented techniques can provide knowledge of impending failure in high reliability applications where the risks associated with loss-of-functionality are too high to endure. The future states of the systems has been estimated based on a Particle and Kalman-filter projection of the models via a Bayesian framework. Performance of the prognostication health management algorithm during the contacts life has been quantified using performance evaluation metrics. Model predictions have been correlated with experimental data. Prognostic metrics including Prognostic Horizon (PH), alpha-Lamda (α-λ), and Relative Accuracy have been used to assess the performance of the damage proxies and a comparison of the two models made

A novel safety assurance method based on the compound equivalent modeling and iterate reduce particle‐adaptive Kalman filtering for the unmanned aerial vehicle lithium ion batteries.

The safety assurance is very important for the unmanned aerial vehicle lithium ion batteries, in which the state of charge estimation is the basis of its energy management and safety protection. A new equivalent modeling method is proposed for the mathematical expression of different structural characteristics, and an improved reduce particle-adaptive Kalman filtering model is designed and built, in which the incorporate multiple featured information is absorbed to explore the optimal representation by abandoning the redundant and abnormal information. And then, the multiple parameter identification is investigated that has the ability of adapting the current varying conditions, according to which the hybrid pulse power characterization test is accommodated. As can be known from the experimental results, the polynomial fitting treatment is carried out by conducting the curve fitting treatment and the maximum estimation error of the closed-circuit-voltage is 0.48% and its state of charge estimation error is lower than 0.30% in the hybrid pulse power characterization test, which is also within 2.00% under complex current varying working conditions. The iterate calculation process is conducted for the unmanned aerial vehicle lithium ion batteries together with the compound equivalent modeling, realizing its adaptive power state estimation and safety protection effectively