Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper analyses the communication strategy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the 2016 economic recession. Applying text mining techniques, useful insights are derived regarding the linguistic intensity, readability, tone, and topics of published monetary policy communiques. Our results provide evidence of increased central bank communication during the recession. However, the ease of reading the published policy communiques declined, especially at the outset of the recession. In terms of tone, we find that negative policy sentiments were expressed during the 2015-2017 period; reflecting the economic uncertainties that trailed the oil price slump of 2014 and its implications for the domestic economy. The negativity of the policy sentiment score reached its trough in July 2016 and recorded an inflexion; signalling the economy’s turning point towards recovery. Based on the results of the estimated topic model, issues relating to “oil price shocks”, “external reserves”, and “inflation” were of concern to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) a few quarters preceding the recession while the topics relating to “exchange rate management” as well as “output growth and market stability” were dominant during the recession. Expectedly, the topic proportion for “prices and macroeconomic policies” remain relatively sizeable across the sample period, reflecting the MPC’s commitment to the CBN’s primary mandate of maintaining price stability

Norges Bank's Monetary Policy Handbook : Version 1.0

The purpose of this handbook is to document the expert knowledge relevant for Norges Bank’s conduct of monetary policy. Its primary focus is to elaborate on the topics and policy challenges described in Norges Bank’s monetary policy strategy statement. We will cite international practice and relevant literature regarding these topics and give an account of Norges Bank’s interpretations and clarifications. We will also describe the analysis system and data basis on which monetary policy decisions are based. The handbook is intended as a living product, which will be updated as the strategy and modelling system evolve.publishedVersio

Challenge and Research Trends of Forecasting Financial Energy

The measurement of economic entities' financial strength is one of the significant challenges of modern economic and financial research. With increased financial globalization, faster economic changes, and a new dimension of increased financial risk in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis due to its biological nature and broad scope, affecting the whole world simultaneously, the issue of forecasting financial energy is gaining much more importance currently. This Special Issue entitled „Challenge and Research Trends of Forecasting Financial Energy” is devoted to the broad research area of forecasting financial energy of economic units such as enterprises, households, local governments, etc. Conceptualizing the term of financial energy, we aim to capture a wide spectrum of predicting and evaluating the financial standing, including various aspects of corporate finance, personal finance, and public finance

Perspectives on Economic Development

Among the most discussed and contested areas of policy are those that surround economic development. Among the wide universe that is public policy, those policies that claim to enhance economic development have long been viewed as particularly important, and discussions over what the best approaches are have been varied, heated, and often at the core of the success or failure of governments. This volume explores how different policy environments impact economic development in light of the interplay with other factors. From discussion of tax policy in the Russian Federation, to the interplay of economic development and culture in Namibia, to the complex interplay between tourism and extractive industries in the United States, this volume explores a range of policy realities

Emission Permits as a Monetary Policy Tool: Is it Feasible? Is it Ethical?

The price of emission permits is deemed too low to mitigate climate change. In three studies, policy approaches to pricing carbon in a market setting are examined. First, the emission permit market is analyzed comparatively to how the ethanol mandate impacted prices in the corn market. This leads to the realization that the marketization of carbon is more like a currency than a physical commodity. The next study examines emission permits as a monetary policy tool. Emissions correlate GDP output, thus central banks can use emission permits as forward guidance, as a means to optimize the price for climate change mitigation, and as an alternative to interest rates. Opinions of thought leaders are used to question the acceptability of emission permits as a monetary policy tool. The final study is an ethical analysis using deontology, utilitarianism and virtue ethics within a pragmatic philosophical context, analyzing carbon as a monetary policy tool. In order for carbon as a monetary policy tool to be considered ethically acceptable, it must satisfy the temporal, spatial and institutional dilemmas of climate change articulated in Stephen Gardiner’s Perfect Moral Storm. Under this ethical standard, it is found that using carbon as a monetary policy tool can help address these concerns, but not solve them alone. This research is presented using transdisciplinary methods which provide a unique and holistic approach to policy formation not yet presented in the literature. This research is relevant to policy makers in central banking, the IMF and World Bank

Social Welfare under Authoritarian Rule: Change and Path Dependence in the Social Welfare System in Mubarak's Egypt

This thesis is an attempt to answer the following question: how and why was the social welfare system in Egypt altered under the government of Hosni Mubarak (1981-2011)? Literatures on the determinants, objectives and structures of social welfare regimes predominantly assume democratic systems of government. They claim that the political influence of organised labour is the most important driving force for the expansion of social welfare systems. This driving force is effective only in open, democratic political arena. This thesis therefore argues that the case of Egypt requires us to consider social welfare regimes within the context of authoritarian resilience. According to this corpus of work, institutional change under authoritarian regimes can best be explained as a product of government survival strategies, strategies which seek to maximise the interests of the ruling elite, especially their political leaders (rather than the political influence of organised labour which drives social welfare systems in democratic countries). Although the ruling elite under authoritarian rule use social welfare systems in their survival strategies, the strategies differ in their context or ideology. Egypt’s first President, Gamal Abdul Nasser, designed and introduced a social welfare system which supported his primary goal of industrialisation. The income-redistribution aspects of his social welfare system were designed to mobilise popular political support for his regime from the middle and low-income classes, especially urban workers. His successor, Anwar al Sadat, relied still further on the income-redistribution function of the social welfare system, as a means of partially compensating those elements of society which could be considered ‘losers’ from his policy of economic opening (infitah). Whereas his policies expanded the economic base of regime support from the working class and the public sector to the growing business elites, he fortunately obtained several external resources, such as economic aid (from the United States, in particular), fees from the Suez Canal and oil exports. By exploiting these resources as sources to expand the social welfare system, Sadat was able to compensate the ‘losers’ and to maintain political legitimacy with these lower classes through welfare re-distribution instruments. His strategy strengthened the populist feature of the social welfare system. This thesis argues that change in the social welfare system during the Mubarak era was bounded by the logic of the ‘social contract’, which was reinforced by the expansion of populist welfare provision during the Sadat era. Sadat’s strategy led to fiscal deficit and prevented economic growth in the Mubarak era. Rationalisation of the programmes was indeed advocated by the international financial institutions and the Mubarak government did appear to initiate reforms. However, when looked at closely, the thesis reveals that these reforms did not result in significant reductions in government expenditures on social welfare as was supposedly intended. Despite a decline in external resources, the regime maintained expenditures, ‘thinning’ out the benefits of the welfare system where it could, but never fully engaging in deep structural reform. Mubarak’s government was caught in an unresolvable dilemma. Economic liberalisation in general created a new alliance between the ruling elite and the growing class of businessmen. However, the authoritarian regime still relied on a legacy of claims to redistributive justice for its legitimacy. As a decline in external resources cut away the regime’s capacity to deliver this through structural aspects of the economy, the regime increasingly relied on social welfare programmes to alleviate poverty and assuage political grievances. Regime fear of direct political protests increasingly drove social welfare policy, with the regime compensating for the effects of liberalisation in one side of the economy by spending money it could ill afford in another. The strategy was itself a fundamental contradiction and inherently unsustainable. As a result, a decline in distributive resources revealed a failure in the social welfare system – enduring fiscal misallocation and neglecting social problems (such as poverty and unemployment)

Principles of Economics 2e

Principles of Economics 2e covers the scope and sequence of most introductory economics courses. The text includes many current examples, which are handled in a politically equitable way. The outcome is a balanced approach to the theory and application of economics concepts. The second edition has been thoroughly revised to increase clarity, update data and current event impacts, and incorporate the feedback from many reviewers and adopters. Changes made in Principles of Economics 2e are described in the preface and the transition guide to help instructors transition to the second edition. The first edition of Principles of Economics by OpenStax is available in web view here

The History of Japanese Economic Development

This is an easy-to-read book that explains how and why Japan industrialized rapidly. It traces historical development from the feudal Edo period to high income and technology in the current period. Catch-up industrialization is analyzed from a broad perspective including social, economic and political aspects. Historical data, research and contesting arguments are amply supplied. Japan’s unique experience is contrasted with the practices of today’s developing countries. Negative aspects such as social ills, policy failures, military movements and war years are also covered. Nineteenth-century Japan already had a happy combination of strong entrepreneurship and relatively wise government, which was the result of Japan’s long evolutionary history. Measured contacts with high civilizations of China, India and the West allowed cumulative growth without being destroyed by them. Imported ideas and technology were absorbed with adjustments to fit the local context. The book grew out of a graduate course for government officials from developing countries. It offers a comprehensive look and new insights at Japan’s industrial path that are often missing in standard historical chronicles. Written in an accessible and lively form, the book engages scholars as well as novices with no prior knowledge of Japan