A distributed simulation methodology for large-scale hybrid modelling and simulation of emergency medical services

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonHealthcare systems are traditionally characterised by complexity and heterogeneity. With the continuous increase in size and shrinkage of available resources, the healthcare sector faces the challenge of delivering high quality services with fewer resources. Healthcare organisations cannot be seen in isolation since the services of one such affects the performance of other healthcare organisations. Efficient management and forward planning, not only locally but rather across the whole system, could support healthcare sector to overcome the challenges. An example of closely interwoven organisations within the healthcare sector is the emergency medical services (EMS). EMS operate in a region and usually consist of one ambulance service and the available accident and emergency (A&E) departments within the coverage area. EMS provide, mainly, pre-hospital treatment and transport to the appropriate A&E units. The life-critical nature of EMS demands continuous systems improvement practices. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been used to analyse either the ambulance services or the A&E departments. However, the size and complexity of EMS systems constitute the conventional M&S techniques inadequate to model the system as a whole. This research adopts the approach of distributed simulation to model all the EMS components as individual and composable simulations that are able to run as standalone simulation, as well as federates in a distributed simulation (DS) model. Moreover, the hybrid approach connects agent-based simulation (ABS) and discrete event simulation (DES) models in order to accommodate the heterogeneity of the EMS components. The proposed FIELDS Framework for Integrated EMS Large-scale Distributed Simulation supports the re-use of existing, heterogeneous models that can be linked with the High Level Architecture (HLA) protocol for distributed simulation in order to compose large-scale simulation models. Based on FIELDS, a prototype ABS-DES distributed simulation EMS model was developed based on the London EMS. Experiments were conducted with the model and the system was tested in terms of performance and scalability measures to assess the feasibility of the proposed approach. The yielded results indicate that it is feasible to develop hybrid DS models of EMS that enables holistic analysis of the system and support model re-use. The main contributions of this thesis is a distributed simulation methodology that derived along the process of conducting this project, the FIELDS framework for hybrid EMS distributed simulation studies that support re-use of existing simulation models, and a prototype distributed simulation model that can be potentially used as a tool for EMS analysis and improvement.MATCH Programm

Improved Aerodynamic Analysis for Hybrid Wing Body Conceptual Design Optimization

This paper provides an overview of ongoing efforts to develop, evaluate, and validate different tools for improved aerodynamic modeling and systems analysis of Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft configurations. Results are being presented for the evaluation of different aerodynamic tools including panel methods, enhanced panel methods with viscous drag prediction, and computational fluid dynamics. Emphasis is placed on proper prediction of aerodynamic loads for structural sizing as well as viscous drag prediction to develop drag polars for HWB conceptual design optimization. Data from transonic wind tunnel tests at the Arnold Engineering Development Center s 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel was used as a reference data set in order to evaluate the accuracy of the aerodynamic tools. Triangularized surface data and Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) models of an X-48B 2% scale wind tunnel model were used to generate input and model files for the different analysis tools. In support of ongoing HWB scaling studies within the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) program, an improved finite element based structural analysis and weight estimation tool for HWB center bodies is currently under development. Aerodynamic results from these analyses are used to provide additional aerodynamic validation data

Hybrid Automated Machine Learning System for Big Data

A lot of machine learning (ML) models and algorithms exist and in designing classification systems, it is often a challenge looking for and selecting the best performing ML algorithm(s) to use for a dataset in a short period of time. Often, one must learn thor-oughly about the data set structure and content, decide whether to use a supervised, semi-supervised or an unsupervised learning strategy, and then investigate, select or design via trial and error a classification or clustering algorithm that would work most accurately for that specific dataset. This can be quite a time consuming and tedious process. Additionally, a classification algorithm may not perform very well with a dataset as compared to using a clustering algorithm. Meta-learning (learning to learn) and automatic ML (autoML) are data mining-based formalisms for modelling evolving conventional ML functions and toolkit systems. The concept of modelling a decision tree-based combination of both formalisms as a Hybrid-AutoML toolkit extends that of traditional complex autoML systems. In hybrid-autoML, single or multiple predictive models are built by combining a three-layered decision learning architecture for automatic learning mode and model selection, by engaging formal-isms for selecting from a variety of supervised or unsupervised ML algorithms and generic meta information obtained from varying multi-datasets. The work presented in this thesis aims to study, conceptualize, design and develop this hybrid-autoML toolkit. By extending in the simplest form, some existing methodologies for the model training aspect of autoML systems. The theoretical and experimental development focuses on the extension of autoWeka and use of existing meta-learning, algorithm selection and deci-sion tree concepts. It addresses the issue of efficient ML mode (supervised or unsupervised) and model selection for varying multi-datasets, learning methods representations of practical alternative use cases and structuring of layered decision ML un-folding, and algorithms for constructing the unfolding. The im-plementation aims to develop tools for hybrid-autoML based model visualization or evaluation, use case simulations and analysis on single or multi varying datasets. An open source tool called hybrid-autoML has been developed to support these functionali-ties. Hybrid-autoML provides a user-friendly graphical interface that facilitates single or multi varying datasets entry, sup-ports automatic learning mode or strategy selection, automatic model selection on single or multi-varying datasets, supports predictive testing, and allows the automatic visualization and use of a set of analytical tools for model evaluation. It is highly extensible and saves a lot of time

Metrics and models to support the development of hybrid information systems

The research described here concerns the development of metrics and models to support the development of hybrid (conventional/knowledge based) integrated systems. The thesis argues from the point that, although it is well known that estimating the cost, duration and quality of information systems is a difficult task, it is far from clear what sorts of tools and techniques would adequately support a project manager in the estimation of these properties. A literature review shows that metrics (measurements) and estimating tools have been developed for conventional systems since the 1960s while there has been very little research on metrics for knowledge based systems (KBSs). Furthermore, although there are a number of theoretical problems with many of the `classic' metrics developed for conventional systems, it also appears that the tools which such metrics can be used to develop are not widely used by project managers. A survey was carried out of large UK companies which confirmed this continuing state of affairs. Before any useful tools could be developed, therefore, it was important to find out why project managers were not using these tools already. By characterising those companies that use software cost estimating (SCE) tools against those which could but do not, it was possible to recognise the involvement of the client/customer in the process of estimation. Pursuing this point, a model of the early estimating and planning stages (the EEPS model) was developed to test exactly where estimating takes place. The EEPS model suggests that estimating could take place either before a fully-developed plan has been produced, or while this plan is being produced. If it were the former, then SCE tools would be particularly useful since there is very little other data available from which to produce an estimate. A second survey, however, indicated that project managers see estimating as being essentially the latter at which point project management tools are available to support the process. It would seem, therefore, that SCE tools are not being used because project management tools are being used instead. The issue here is not with the method of developing an estimating model or tool, but; in the way in which "an estimate" is intimately tied to an understanding of what tasks are being planned. Current SCE tools are perceived by project managers as targetting the wrong point of estimation, A model (called TABATHA) is then presented which describes how an estimating tool based on an analysis of tasks would thus fit into the planning stage. The issue of whether metrics can be usefully developed for hybrid systems (which also contain KBS components) is tested by extending a number of "classic" program size and structure metrics to a KBS language, Prolog. Measurements of lines of code, Halstead's operators/operands, McCabe's cyclomatic complexity, Henry & Kafura's data flow fan-in/out and post-release reported errors were taken for a set of 80 commercially-developed LPA Prolog programs: By re~defining the metric counts for Prolog it was found that estimates of program size and error-proneness comparable to the best conventional studies are possible. This suggests that metrics can be usefully applied to KBS languages, such as Prolog and thus, the development of metncs and models to support the development of hybrid information systems is both feasible and useful

Collaborative Verification-Driven Engineering of Hybrid Systems

Hybrid systems with both discrete and continuous dynamics are an important model for real-world cyber-physical systems. The key challenge is to ensure their correct functioning w.r.t. safety requirements. Promising techniques to ensure safety seem to be model-driven engineering to develop hybrid systems in a well-defined and traceable manner, and formal verification to prove their correctness. Their combination forms the vision of verification-driven engineering. Often, hybrid systems are rather complex in that they require expertise from many domains (e.g., robotics, control systems, computer science, software engineering, and mechanical engineering). Moreover, despite the remarkable progress in automating formal verification of hybrid systems, the construction of proofs of complex systems often requires nontrivial human guidance, since hybrid systems verification tools solve undecidable problems. It is, thus, not uncommon for development and verification teams to consist of many players with diverse expertise. This paper introduces a verification-driven engineering toolset that extends our previous work on hybrid and arithmetic verification with tools for (i) graphical (UML) and textual modeling of hybrid systems, (ii) exchanging and comparing models and proofs, and (iii) managing verification tasks. This toolset makes it easier to tackle large-scale verification tasks

Modeling the Internet of Things: a simulation perspective

This paper deals with the problem of properly simulating the Internet of Things (IoT). Simulating an IoT allows evaluating strategies that can be employed to deploy smart services over different kinds of territories. However, the heterogeneity of scenarios seriously complicates this task. This imposes the use of sophisticated modeling and simulation techniques. We discuss novel approaches for the provision of scalable simulation scenarios, that enable the real-time execution of massively populated IoT environments. Attention is given to novel hybrid and multi-level simulation techniques that, when combined with agent-based, adaptive Parallel and Distributed Simulation (PADS) approaches, can provide means to perform highly detailed simulations on demand. To support this claim, we detail a use case concerned with the simulation of vehicular transportation systems.Comment: Proceedings of the IEEE 2017 International Conference on High Performance Computing and Simulation (HPCS 2017

A Vision of Collaborative Verification-Driven Engineering of Hybrid Systems

Abstract. Hybrid systems with both discrete and continuous dynamics are an important model for real-world physical systems. The key challenge is how to ensure their correct functioning w.r.t. safety requirements. Promising techniques to ensure safety seem to be model-driven engineering to develop hybrid systems in a well-defined and traceable manner, and formal verification to prove their correctness. Their combination forms the vision of verification-driven engineering. Despite the remarkable progress in automating formal verification of hybrid systems, the construction of proofs of complex systems often requires significant human guidance, since hybrid systems verification tools solve undecidable problems. It is thus not uncommon for verification teams to consist of many players with diverse expertise. This paper introduces a verification-driven engineering toolset that extends our previous work on hybrid and arithmetic verification with tools for (i) modeling hybrid systems, (ii) exchanging and comparing models and proofs, and (iii) managing verification tasks. This toolset makes it easier to tackle large-scale verification tasks.

SyRA: early system reliability analysis for cross-layer soft errors resilience in memory arrays of microprocessor systems

© 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes,creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.Cross-layer reliability is becoming the preferred solution when reliability is a concern in the design of a microprocessor-based system. Nevertheless, deciding how to distribute the error management across the different layers of the system is a very complex task that requires the support of dedicated frameworks for cross-layer reliability analysis. This paper proposes SyRA, a system-level cross-layer early reliability analysis framework for radiation induced soft errors in memory arrays of microprocessor-based systems. The framework exploits a multi-level hybrid Bayesian model to describe the target system and takes advantage of Bayesian inference to estimate different reliability metrics. SyRA implements several mechanisms and features to deal with the complexity of realistic models and implements a complete tool-chain that scales efficiently with the complexity of the system. The simulation time is significantly lower than micro-architecture level or RTL fault-injection experiments with an accuracy high enough to take effective design decisions. To demonstrate the capability of SyRA, we analyzed the reliability of a set of microprocessor-based systems characterized by different microprocessor architectures (i.e., Intel x86, ARM Cortex-A15, ARM Cortex-A9) running both the Linux operating system or bare metal. Each system under analysis executes different software workloads both from benchmark suites and from real applications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft