Are Police Officers Bayesians? Police Updating in Investigative Stops

Theories of rational behavior assume that actors make decisions where the benefits of their acts exceed their costs or losses. If those expected costs and benefits change over time, behavior will change accordingly as actors learn and internalize the parameters of success and failure. In the context of proactive policing, police stops that achieve any of several goals — constitutional compliance, stops that lead to “good” arrests or summonses, stops that lead to seizures of weapons, drugs, or other contraband, or stops that produce good will and citizen cooperation — should signal to officers the features of a stop that increase its rewards or benefits. Having formed a subjective estimate of success (i.e., prior beliefs), officers should observe their outcomes in subsequent encounters and form updated probability estimates, with specific features of the event, with a positive weight on those features. Officers should also learn the features of unproductive stops and adjust accordingly. A rational actor would pursue “good” or “productive” stops and avoid “unproductive” stops by updating their knowledge of these features through experience. We analyze data on 4.9 million Terry stops in New York City from 2004–16 to estimate the extent of updating by officers in the New York Police Department. We compare models using a frequentist analysis of officer behavior with a Bayesian analysis where subsequent events are weighted by the signals from prior events. By comparing productive and unproductive stops, the analysis estimates the weights or values — an experience effect — that officers assign to the signals of each type of stop outcome. We find evidence of updating using both analytic methods, although the “hit rates” — our measure of stop productivity including recovery of firearms or arrests for criminal behavior — remain low. Updating is independent of total officer stop activity each month, suggesting that learning may be selective and specific to certain stop features. However, hit rates decline as officer stop activity increases. Both updating and hit rates improved as stop rates declined following a series of internal memoranda and trial orders beginning in May 2012. There is also evidence of differential updating by officers conditional on a variety of features of prior and current stops, including suspect race and stop legality. Though our analysis is limited to NYPD stops, given the ubiquity of policing regimes of intensive stop and frisk encounters across the United States, the relevance of these findings reaches beyond New York City. These regimes reveal tensions between the Terry jurisprudence of reasonable suspicion and evidence on contemporary police practices across the country

Are Police Officers Bayesians? Police Updating in Investigative Stops

Theories of rational behavior assume that actors make decisions where the benefits of their acts exceed their costs or losses. If those expected costs and benefits change over time, the behavior will change accordingly as actors learn and internalize the parameters of success and failure. In the context of proactive policing, police stops that achieve any of several goals—constitutional compliance, stops that lead to “good” arrests or summonses, stops that lead to seizures of weapons, drugs, or other contraband, or stops that produce good will and citizen cooperation—should signal to officers the features of a stop that increase its rewards or benefits. Having formed a subjective estimate of success (i.e., prior beliefs), officers should observe their outcomes in subsequent encounters and form updated probability estimates, with specific features of the event, with a positive weight on those features. Officers should also learn the features of unproductive stops and adjust accordingly. A rational actor would pursue “good” or “productive” stops and avoid “unproductive” stops by updating their knowledge of these features through experience. We analyze data on 4.9 million Terry stops in New York City from 2004–2016 to estimate the extent of updating by officers in the New York Police Department. We compare models using a frequentist analysis of officer behavior with a Bayesian analysis where subsequent events are weighted by the signals from prior events. By comparing productive and unproductive stops, the analysis estimates the weights or values—an experience effect—that officers assign to the signals of each type of stop outcome. We find evidence of updating using both analytic methods, although the “hit rates”—our measure of stop productivity including recovery of firearms or arrests for criminal behavior—remain low. Updating is independent of total officer stop activity each month, suggesting that learning may be selective and specific to certain stop features. However, hit rates decline as officer stop activity increases. Both updating and hit rates improved as stop rates declined following a series of internal memoranda and trial orders beginning in May 2012. There is also evidence of differential updating by officers conditional on a variety of features of prior and current stops, including suspect race and stop legality. Though our analysis is limited to NYPD stops, given the ubiquity of policing regimes of intensive stop and frisk encounters across the United States, the relevance of these findings reaches beyond New York City. These regimes reveal tensions between the Terry jurisprudence of reasonable suspicion and evidence on contemporary police practices across the country

21st century skills in the art room: developing a curriculum for high school students’ career success

Learning does not stop at the schools; the rapidity of change and the advancement of technology place an emphasis on multimedia as a learning tool. The directive of the study was to provide information on how multimedia and critical thinking skills in the art classroom might be incorporated in order to enhance and prepare students’ for 21st century careers. Data collection was accomplished using the following qualitative methods: interviews and observation. Drawing on existing literature and the interviews, the author looked for similarities among existing conclusions and her own. A description of an art course with multimedia content is presented. The data from observation was compared to the interviewees experience with students’ engagement with multimedia and the presence of critical thinking in education. The study served a dual purpose: gather empirical data that supports scholarly evidence of multimedia and critical thinking as a tool for preparing students for the 21st century workplace, and assist in understanding students experience when engaging with multimedia

Learning in the Repeated Secretary Problem

In the classical secretary problem, one attempts to find the maximum of an unknown and unlearnable distribution through sequential search. In many real-world searches, however, distributions are not entirely unknown and can be learned through experience. To investigate learning in such a repeated secretary problem we conduct a large-scale behavioral experiment in which people search repeatedly from fixed distributions. In contrast to prior investigations that find no evidence for learning in the classical scenario, in the repeated setting we observe substantial learning resulting in near-optimal stopping behavior. We conduct a Bayesian comparison of multiple behavioral models which shows that participants' behavior is best described by a class of threshold-based models that contains the theoretically optimal strategy. Fitting such a threshold-based model to data reveals players' estimated thresholds to be surprisingly close to the optimal thresholds after only a small number of games

The phonological status of English oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/ : evidence from speakers' classificatory behaviour

The classification of oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/ in English is an old phonological problem to which different solutions have been proposed. In an attempt to provide experimental evidence on the classification of oral bilabial stops after tautosyllabic /s/ by native speakers of English, a concept formation experiment was conducted. The results showed that out of the four main phonological theoretical views on the classification of oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/, the solution which treats those speech segments as allophones of the phonemes /p, t, k/ is the most plausible from the point of view of language users' classificatory behaviour

Within-trial effects of stimulus-reward associations

While a globally energizing influence of motivation has long been appreciated in psychological research, a series of more recent studies has described motivational influences on specific cognitive operations ranging from visual attention, to cognitive control, to memory formation. In the majority of these studies, a cue predicts the potential to win money in a subsequent task, thus allowing for modulations of proactive task preparation. Here we describe some recent studies using tasks that communicate reward availability without such cues by directly associating specific task features with reward. Despite abolishing the cue-based preparation phase, these studies show similar performance benefits. Given the clear difference in temporal structure, a central question is how these behavioral effects are brought about, and in particular whether control processes can rapidly be enhanced reactively. We present some evidence in favor of this notion. Although additional influences, for example sensory prioritization of reward-related features, could contribute to the reward-related performance benefits, those benefits seem to strongly rely on enhancements of control processes during task execution. Still, for a better mechanistic understanding of reward benefits in these two principal paradigms (cues vs. no cues), more work is needed that directly compares the underlying processes. We anticipate that reward benefits can be brought about in a very flexible fashion depending on the exact nature of the reward manipulation and task, and that a better understanding of these processes will not only be relevant for basic motivation research, but that it can also be valuable for educational and psychopathological contexts

It is Time to Stop Talking and Start Doing: The Views of People with Learning Disability on Future Research

There is a need for people with learning disabilities to be involved in directing research to ensure that the research is meaningful to those it concerns. This paper describes a scoping exercise to determine the research priorities for the field of learning disabilities for the next ten years. It focuses specifically on the role of people with learning disabilities in setting this research agenda and describes the methodology used, which involved a series of consultation workshops. Analysis of the data from these generated six priority themes: access to health care; getting good support; the right to relationships; housing options; work and personal finance; inclusion in the community. The findings showed that it is possible for people with learning disabilities to participate in setting a research agenda and there was agreement between the different stakeholders on the fundamental priorities. Moreover, the inclusion of people with learning disabilities provided a perspective that could not be adequately represented by other stakeholder groups. People with learning disabilities were concerned that research has a meaningful impact and can lead to demonstrable improvements in care. In order for this to happen there is a need for widespread dissemination of accessible outputs that reach the relevant stakeholders

Strategies for Change: Research Initiatives and Recommendations to Improve Police-Community Relations in Oakland, CA

New Stanford research on thousands of police interactions found significant racial differences in Oakland, Calif., police conduct toward African Americans in traffic and pedestrian stops, while offering a big data approach to improving police-community relationships there and elsewhere.The report makes 50 specific recommendations for police agencies to consider, such as more expansive data collection and more focused efforts to change the nature of mindsets, policies and systems in law enforcement that contribute to racial disparities.Among the findings, African American men were four times more likely to be searched than whites during a traffic stop. African Americans were also more likely to be handcuffed, even if they ultimately were not arrested.Across the United States, the report noted, police agencies are guided by the commitment to serve communities with fairness, respect and honor. Yet tensions between police and communities of color are documented to be at an all-time high