Predictive Agent-Based Crowd Model Design Using Decentralized Control Systems

As a complex system, crowd dynamics emerge bottom-up from the local interactions between pedestrians as component subsystems. This article proposes a predictive agent-based crowd simulation model to analyze the outcomes of emergency evacuation scenarios taking into account collisions between pedestrians, smoke, fire sprinklers, and exit indicators. The crowd model is based on a decentralized control system structure, where each pedestrian agent is governed through a deliberative-reactive control architecture. The simulation model for evacuation includes a routing-based control system for dynamic-guided evacuation. A design case illustrates the modeling process. Results show that the crowd simulation model based on agent autonomy and local interactions is able to generate higher level crowd dynamics through emergence.publishedVersio

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

Inferring epidemic dynamics using Gaussian process emulation of agent-based simulations

Computational models help decision makers understand epidemic dynamics to optimize public health interventions. Agent-based simulation of disease spread in synthetic populations allows us to compare and contrast different effects across identical populations or to investigate the effect of interventions keeping every other factor constant between ``digital twins''. FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is an agent-based modeling system with a geo-spatial perspective using a synthetic population that is constructed based on the U.S. census data. In this paper, we show how Gaussian process regression can be used on FRED-synthesized data to infer the differing spatial dispersion of the epidemic dynamics for two disease conditions that start from the same initial conditions and spread among identical populations. Our results showcase the utility of agent-based simulation frameworks such as FRED for inferring differences between conditions where controlling for all confounding factors for such comparisons is next to impossible without synthetic data.Comment: To be presented in Winter Simulation Conference 2023, repository link: https://github.com/abdulrahmanfci/gpr-ab

Resilient Autonomous Control of Distributed Multi-agent Systems in Contested Environments

An autonomous and resilient controller is proposed for leader-follower multi-agent systems under uncertainties and cyber-physical attacks. The leader is assumed non-autonomous with a nonzero control input, which allows changing the team behavior or mission in response to environmental changes. A resilient learning-based control protocol is presented to find optimal solutions to the synchronization problem in the presence of attacks and system dynamic uncertainties. An observer-based distributed H_infinity controller is first designed to prevent propagating the effects of attacks on sensors and actuators throughout the network, as well as to attenuate the effect of these attacks on the compromised agent itself. Non-homogeneous game algebraic Riccati equations are derived to solve the H_infinity optimal synchronization problem and off-policy reinforcement learning is utilized to learn their solution without requiring any knowledge of the agent's dynamics. A trust-confidence based distributed control protocol is then proposed to mitigate attacks that hijack the entire node and attacks on communication links. A confidence value is defined for each agent based solely on its local evidence. The proposed resilient reinforcement learning algorithm employs the confidence value of each agent to indicate the trustworthiness of its own information and broadcast it to its neighbors to put weights on the data they receive from it during and after learning. If the confidence value of an agent is low, it employs a trust mechanism to identify compromised agents and remove the data it receives from them from the learning process. Simulation results are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach

A Spatial Agent-Based Model of N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma Cooperation in a Socio-Geographic Community

The purpose of this paper is to present a spatial agent-based model of N-person prisoner's dilemma that is designed to simulate the collective communication and cooperation within a socio-geographic community. Based on a tight coupling of REPAST and a vector Geographic Information System, the model simulates the emergence of cooperation from the mobility behaviors and interaction strategies of citizen agents. To approximate human behavior, the agents are set as stochastic learning automata with Pavlovian personalities and attitudes. A review of the theory of the standard prisoner's dilemma, the iterated prisoner's dilemma, and the N-person prisoner's dilemma is given as well as an overview of the generic architecture of the agent-based model. The capabilities of the spatial N-person prisoner's dilemma component are demonstrated with several scenario simulation runs for varied initial cooperation percentages and mobility dynamics. Experimental results revealed that agent mobility and context preservation bring qualitatively different effects to the evolution of cooperative behavior in an analyzed spatial environment.Agent Based Modeling, Cooperation, Prisoners Dilemma, Spatial Interaction Model, Spatially Structured Social Dilemma, Geographic Information Systems

PI-FLAME: A parallel immune system simulator using the FLAME graphic processing unit environment

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to study population dynamics in complex systems, such as the human immune system. Previously, Folcik et al. (The basic immune simulator: an agent-based model to study the interactions between innate and adaptive immunity. Theor Biol Med Model 2007; 4: 39) developed a Basic Immune Simulator (BIS) and implemented it using the Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit (RePast) ABM simulation framework. However, frameworks such as RePast are designed to execute serially on central processing units and therefore cannot efficiently handle large model sizes. In this paper, we report on our implementation of the BIS using FLAME GPU, a parallel computing ABM simulator designed to execute on graphics processing units. To benchmark our implementation, we simulate the response of the immune system to a viral infection of generic tissue cells. We compared our results with those obtained from the original RePast implementation for statistical accuracy. We observe that our implementation has a 13× performance advantage over the original RePast implementation

R&D and knowledge dynamics in university-industry relationships in biotech and pharmaceuticals: An agent-based model

In the last two decades, University-Industry Relationships have played an outstanding role in shaping innovation activities in Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals. Despite the growing importance and the considerable scope of these relationships, there still is an intensive and open debate on their short and long term effects on the research system in life sciences. So far, the extensive literature on this topic has not been able to provide a widely accepted answer. This work introduces a new way to analyse University-Industry Relationships (UIRs) which makes use of an agent-based simulation model. With the help of simulation experiments and the comparison of different scenario results, new insights on the effects of these relationships on the innovativeness of the research system can be gained. In particular, focusing on knowledge interactions among heterogeneous actors, we show that: (i) universities tend to shift from a basic to an applied research orientation as a consequence of relationships with industry, (ii) universities' innovative capabilities benefit from industry financial resources but not so much from cognitive resources of the companies, (iii) biotech companies' innovative capabilities largely benefit from the knowledge interaction with universities and (iv) adequate policies in terms of public basic research funding can contrast the negative effects of UIRs on university research orientation. --University-Industry Relationships,Knowledge Dynamics,University Patenting,Technology Transfer,Agent-Based Modelling

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory

A simulation model for public bike-sharing systems

Urban areas are in need of efficient and sustainable mobility services. Public bicycle sharing systems stand out as a promising alternative and many cities have invested in their deployment. This has led to a continuous and fast implementation of these systems around the world, while at the same time, research works devoted to understand the system dynamics and deriving optimal designs are being developed. In spite of this, many promoting agencies have faced the impossibility of evaluating a system design in advance, increasing the uncertainty on its performance and the risks of failure. This paper describes the development of an agent-based simulation model to emulate a bike-sharing system. The goal is to obtain a tool to evaluate and compare different alternatives for the system design before their implementation. This tool will support the decision-making process in all the stages of implementation, from the strategical planning to the daily operation. The main behavioral patterns and schemes for all agents involved are designed and implemented into a Matlab programming code. The model is validated against real data compiled from the Barcelona’s Bicing system showing good accuracy.Postprint (published version