CyTRACK: An open-source and user-friendly python toolbox for detecting and tracking cyclones

This work introduces CyTRACK (Cyclone TRACKing framework), a new open-source, comprehensive and user-friendly Python toolbox for detecting and tracking cyclones in model and reanalysis datasets. The kernel of CyTRACK is based on detecting critical cyclone centres in the mean sea level pressure field at a single time slice, which are then filtered following several threshold parameters. This paper also compares ten years of CyTRACK outputs forced with the ERA5 reanalysis against best-track archives and available cyclones track datasets. The results reveal that CyTRACK can capture the inter-annual (year to year) and intra annual (seasonal cycle) variability of cyclone frequency, life cycle characteristics and spatial distribution of track densities. Largest differences were observed in the annual and seasonal frequency. In summary, CyTRACK provides a user-friendly framework for sensitivity analysis of several free parameters used to perform the tracking, and it is useful for case or climatological studies of cyclone featuresXunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2023/016Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2022/128Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C2021/44Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. DRI/India/0098/2020Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021- 122314OB-I00Universidade de Vigo/CISU

Learning in Dynamic Data-Streams with a Scarcity of Labels

Analysing data in real-time is a natural and necessary progression from traditional data mining. However, real-time analysis presents additional challenges to batch-analysis; along with strict time and memory constraints, change is a major consideration. In a dynamic stream there is an assumption that the underlying process generating the stream is non-stationary and that concepts within the stream will drift and change over time. Adopting a false assumption that a stream is stationary will result in non-adaptive models degrading and eventually becoming obsolete. The challenge of recognising and reacting to change in a stream is compounded by the scarcity of labels problem. This refers to the very realistic situation in which the true class label of an incoming point is not immediately available (or will never be available) or in situations where manually labelling incoming points is prohibitively expensive. The goal of this thesis is to evaluate unsupervised learning as the basis for online classification in dynamic data-streams with a scarcity of labels. To realise this goal, a novel stream clustering algorithm based on the collective behaviour of ants (Ant Colony Stream Clustering (ACSC)) is proposed. This algorithm is shown to be faster and more accurate than comparative, peer stream-clustering algorithms while requiring fewer sensitive parameters. The principles of ACSC are extended in a second stream-clustering algorithm named Multi-Density Stream Clustering (MDSC). This algorithm has adaptive parameters and crucially, can track clusters and monitor their dynamic behaviour over time. A novel technique called a Dynamic Feature Mask (DFM) is proposed to ``sit on top’’ of these stream-clustering algorithms and can be used to observe and track change at the feature level in a data stream. This Feature Mask acts as an unsupervised feature selection method allowing high-dimensional streams to be clustered. Finally, data-stream clustering is evaluated as an approach to one-class classification and a novel framework (named COCEL: Clustering and One class Classification Ensemble Learning) for classification in dynamic streams with a scarcity of labels is described. The proposed framework can identify and react to change in a stream and hugely reduces the number of required labels (typically less than 0.05% of the entire stream)

A similarity-based cooperative co-evolutionary algorithm for dynamic interval multi-objective optimization problems

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Dynamic interval multi-objective optimization problems (DI-MOPs) are very common in real-world applications. However, there are few evolutionary algorithms that are suitable for tackling DI-MOPs up to date. A framework of dynamic interval multi-objective cooperative co-evolutionary optimization based on the interval similarity is presented in this paper to handle DI-MOPs. In the framework, a strategy for decomposing decision variables is first proposed, through which all the decision variables are divided into two groups according to the interval similarity between each decision variable and interval parameters. Following that, two sub-populations are utilized to cooperatively optimize decision variables in the two groups. Furthermore, two response strategies, rgb0.00,0.00,0.00i.e., a strategy based on the change intensity and a random mutation strategy, are employed to rapidly track the changing Pareto front of the optimization problem. The proposed algorithm is applied to eight benchmark optimization instances rgb0.00,0.00,0.00as well as a multi-period portfolio selection problem and compared with five state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms. The experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm is very competitive on most optimization instances

Controlling instabilities along a 3DVar analysis cycle by assimilating in the unstable subspace: a comparison with the EnKF

A hybrid scheme obtained by combining 3DVar with the Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (3DVar-AUS) is tested in a QG model, under perfect model conditions, with a fixed observational network, with and without observational noise. The AUS scheme, originally formulated to assimilate adaptive observations, is used here to assimilate the fixed observations that are found in the region of local maxima of BDAS vectors (Bred vectors subject to assimilation), while the remaining observations are assimilated by 3DVar. The performance of the hybrid scheme is compared with that of 3DVar and of an EnKF. The improvement gained by 3DVar-AUS and the EnKF with respect to 3DVar alone is similar in the present model and observational configuration, while 3DVar-AUS outperforms the EnKF during the forecast stage. The 3DVar-AUS algorithm is easy to implement and the results obtained in the idealized conditions of this study encourage further investigation toward an implementation in more realistic contexts

Steganographer Identification

Conventional steganalysis detects the presence of steganography within single objects. In the real-world, we may face a complex scenario that one or some of multiple users called actors are guilty of using steganography, which is typically defined as the Steganographer Identification Problem (SIP). One might use the conventional steganalysis algorithms to separate stego objects from cover objects and then identify the guilty actors. However, the guilty actors may be lost due to a number of false alarms. To deal with the SIP, most of the state-of-the-arts use unsupervised learning based approaches. In their solutions, each actor holds multiple digital objects, from which a set of feature vectors can be extracted. The well-defined distances between these feature sets are determined to measure the similarity between the corresponding actors. By applying clustering or outlier detection, the most suspicious actor(s) will be judged as the steganographer(s). Though the SIP needs further study, the existing works have good ability to identify the steganographer(s) when non-adaptive steganographic embedding was applied. In this chapter, we will present foundational concepts and review advanced methodologies in SIP. This chapter is self-contained and intended as a tutorial introducing the SIP in the context of media steganography.Comment: A tutorial with 30 page

Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections