Using a novel multi-variable grey model to forecast the electricity consumption of Shandong Province in China

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.The electricity consumption forecasting problem is especially important for policy making in developing region. To properly formulate policies, it is necessary to have reliable forecasts. Electricity consumption forecasting is influenced by some factors, such as economic, population and so on. Considering all factors is a difficult task since it requires much detailed study in which many factors significantly influence on electricity forecasting whereas too many data are unavailable. Grey convex relational analysis is used to describe the relationship between the electricity consumption and its related factors. A novel multi-variable grey forecasting model which considered the total population is developed to forecast the electricity consumption in Shandong Province. The GMC(1,N) model with fractional order accumulation is optimized by changing the order number and the effectiveness of the first pair of original data by the model is proven. The results of practical numerical examples demonstrate that the model provides remarkable prediction performances compared with the traditional grey forecasting model. The forecasted results showed that the increase of electricity consumption will speed up in Shandong Province

Predicting numbers of successful new products to launch using soft computing techniques : a case of firms from manufacturing sector industries

Predicting numbers of new products to be launched by the firms in a particular time period is considered as the most mystified and strategically important decision. Importance of this aspect could be realized by looking at the low success rate of new products in the market. Identifying numbers of new products potentially accepted by the market may reduce the investment and scant resources consumption by firms. In this study, statistical multiple linear regression, and artificial neural network techniques modeled as simple and cascaded networks combined with nature inspired algorithm have been implemented. Artificial neural network has shown significant performance results and further cascading helps in enhancing the prediction accuracy along with better convergence capability of the developed models for the predicament

Development of transportation and supply chain problems with the combination of agent-based simulation and network optimization

Demand drives a different range of supply chain and logistics location decisions, and agent-based modeling (ABM) introduces innovative solutions to address supply chain and logistics problems. This dissertation focuses on an agent-based and network optimization approach to resolve those problems and features three research projects that cover prevalent supply chain management and logistics problems. The first case study evaluates demographic densities in Norway, Finland, and Sweden, and covers how distribution center (DC) locations can be established using a minimizing trip distance approach. Furthermore, traveling time maps are developed for each scenario. In addition, the Nordic area consisting of those three countries is analyzed and five DC location optimization results are presented. The second case study introduces transportation cost modelling in the process of collecting tree logs from several districts and transporting them to the nearest collection point. This research project presents agent-based modelling (ABM) that incorporates comprehensively the key elements of the pick-up and delivery supply chain model and designs the components as autonomous agents communicating with each other. The modelling merges various components such as GIS routing, potential facility locations, random tree log pickup locations, fleet sizing, trip distance, and truck and train transportation. The entire pick-up and delivery operation are modeled by ABM and modeling outcomes are provided by time series charts such as the number of trucks in use, facilities inventory and travel distance. In addition, various scenarios of simulation based on potential facility locations and truck numbers are evaluated and the optimal facility location and fleet size are identified. In the third case study, an agent-based modeling strategy is used to address the problem of vehicle scheduling and fleet optimization. The solution method is employed to data from a real-world organization, and a set of key performance indicators are created to assess the resolution's effectiveness. The ABM method, contrary to other modeling approaches, is a fully customized method that can incorporate extensively various processes and elements. ABM applying the autonomous agent concept can integrate various components that exist in the complex supply chain and create a similar system to assess the supply chain efficiency.Tuotteiden kysyntä ohjaa erilaisia toimitusketju- ja logistiikkasijaintipäätöksiä, ja agenttipohjainen mallinnusmenetelmä (ABM) tuo innovatiivisia ratkaisuja toimitusketjun ja logistiikan ongelmien ratkaisemiseen. Tämä väitöskirja keskittyy agenttipohjaiseen mallinnusmenetelmään ja verkon optimointiin tällaisten ongelmien ratkaisemiseksi, ja sisältää kolme tapaustutkimusta, jotka voidaan luokitella kuuluvan yleisiin toimitusketjun hallinta- ja logistiikkaongelmiin. Ensimmäinen tapaustutkimus esittelee kuinka käyttämällä väestötiheyksiä Norjassa, Suomessa ja Ruotsissa voidaan määrittää strategioita jakelukeskusten (DC) sijaintiin käyttämällä matkan etäisyyden minimoimista. Kullekin skenaariolle kehitetään matka-aikakartat. Lisäksi analysoidaan näistä kolmesta maasta koostuvaa pohjoismaista aluetta ja esitetään viisi mahdollista sijaintia optimointituloksena. Toinen tapaustutkimus esittelee kuljetuskustannusmallintamisen prosessissa, jossa puutavaraa kerätään useilta alueilta ja kuljetetaan lähimpään keräyspisteeseen. Tämä tutkimusprojekti esittelee agenttipohjaista mallinnusta (ABM), joka yhdistää kattavasti noudon ja toimituksen toimitusketjumallin keskeiset elementit ja suunnittelee komponentit keskenään kommunikoiviksi autonomisiksi agenteiksi. Mallinnuksessa yhdistetään erilaisia komponentteja, kuten GIS-reititys, mahdolliset tilojen sijainnit, satunnaiset puunhakupaikat, kaluston mitoitus, matkan pituus sekä monimuotokuljetukset. ABM:n avulla mallinnetaan noutojen ja toimituksien koko ketju ja tuloksena saadaan aikasarjoja kuvaamaan käytössä olevat kuorma-autot, sekä varastomäärät ja ajetut matkat. Lisäksi arvioidaan erilaisia simuloinnin skenaarioita mahdollisten laitosten sijainnista ja kuorma-autojen lukumäärästä sekä tunnistetaan optimaalinen toimipisteen sijainti ja tarvittava autojen määrä. Kolmannessa tapaustutkimuksessa agenttipohjaista mallinnusstrategiaa käytetään ratkaisemaan ajoneuvojen aikataulujen ja kaluston optimoinnin ongelma. Ratkaisumenetelmää käytetään dataan, joka on peräisin todellisesta organisaatiosta, ja ratkaisun tehokkuuden arvioimiseksi luodaan lukuisia keskeisiä suorituskykyindikaattoreita. ABM-menetelmä, toisin kuin monet muut mallintamismenetelmät, on täysin räätälöitävissä oleva menetelmä, joka voi sisältää laajasti erilaisia prosesseja ja elementtejä. Autonomisia agentteja soveltava ABM voi integroida erilaisia komponentteja, jotka ovat olemassa monimutkaisessa toimitusketjussa ja luoda vastaavan järjestelmän toimitusketjun tehokkuuden arvioimiseksi yksityiskohtaisesti.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Optimized state feedback regulation of 3DOF helicopter system via extremum seeking

In this paper, an optimized state feedback regulation of a 3 degree of freedom (DOF) helicopter is designed via extremum seeking (ES) technique. Multi-parameter ES is applied to optimize the tracking performance via tuning State Vector Feedback with Integration of the Control Error (SVFBICE). Discrete multivariable version of ES is developed to minimize a cost function that measures the performance of the controller. The cost function is a function of the error between the actual and desired axis positions. The controller parameters are updated online as the optimization takes place. This method significantly decreases the time in obtaining optimal controller parameters. Simulations were conducted for the online optimization under both fixed and varying operating conditions. The results demonstrate the usefulness of using ES for preserving the maximum attainable performance

A comprehensive review of swarm optimization algorithms

Many swarm optimization algorithms have been introduced since the early 60’s, Evolutionary Programming to the most recent, Grey Wolf Optimization. All of these algorithms have demonstrated their potential to solve many optimization problems. This paper provides an in-depth survey of well-known optimization algorithms. Selected algorithms are briefly explained, and compared with each other comprehensively through experiments conducted using thirty well-known benchmark functions. Their advantages and disadvantages are also discussed. A number of statistical tests are then carried out to determine the significant performances. The results indicate the overall advantage of Differential Evolution (DE) and is closely followed by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), compared with other considered approaches