Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.Comment: 16 page

Traveller Behaviour: Decision making in an unpredictable world

This paper discusses the nature and consequences of uncertainty in transport systems. Drawing on work from a number of fields, it addresses travellers’ abilities to predict variable phenomena, their perception of uncertainty, their attitude to risk and the various strategies they might adopt in response to uncertainty. It is argued that despite the increased interest in the representation of uncertainty in transport systems, most models treat uncertainty as a purely statistical issue and ignore the psychological aspects of response to uncertainty. The principle theories and models currently used to predict travellers’ response to uncertainty are presented and number of alternative modelling approaches are outlined. It is argued that the current generation of predictive models do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting response to changes in the degree of uncertainty or for predicting the likely effect of providing additional information. A number of alternative modelling approaches are identified to deal with travellers’ acquisition of information, the definition of their choice set and their choice between the available options. The use of heuristic approaches is recommended as an alternative to more conventional probabilistic methods

VELOS : a VR platform for ship-evacuation analysis

Virtual Environment for Life On Ships (VELOS) is a multi-user Virtual Reality (VR) system that aims to support designers to assess (early in the design process) passenger and crew activities on a ship for both normal and hectic conditions of operations and to improve ship design accordingly. This article focuses on presenting the novel features of VELOS related to both its VR and evacuation-specific functionalities. These features include: (i) capability of multiple users’ immersion and active participation in the evacuation process, (ii) real-time interactivity and capability for making on-the-fly alterations of environment events and crowd-behavior parameters, (iii) capability of agents and avatars to move continuously on decks, (iv) integrated framework for both the simplified and advanced method of analysis according to the IMO/MSC 1033 Circular, (v) enrichment of the ship geometrical model with a topological model suitable for evacuation analysis, (vi) efficient interfaces for the dynamic specification and handling of the required heterogeneous input data, and (vii) post-processing of the calculated agent trajectories for extracting useful information for the evacuation process. VELOS evacuation functionality is illustrated using three evacuation test cases for a ro–ro passenger ship

Development of Bus-Stop Time Models in Dense Urban Areas: A Case Study in Washington DC

Bus transit reliability depends on several factors including the route of travel, traffic conditions, time of day, and conditions at the bus stops along the route. The number of passengers alighting or boarding, fare payment method, dwell time (DT), and the location of the bus stop also affect the overall reliability of bus transit service. This study defines a new variable, Total Bus Stop Time (TBST) which includes DT and the time it takes a bus to safely maneuver into a bus stop and the re-entering the main traffic stream. It is thought that, if the TBST is minimized at bus stops, the overall reliability of bus transit along routes could be improved. This study focused on developing a TBST model for bus stops located near intersections and at mid-blocks using ordinary least squares method based on data collection at 60 bus stops, 30 of which were near intersections while the remaining were at mid-blocks in Washington DC. The field data collection was conducted during the morning, mid-day, and evening peak hours. The following variables were observed at each bus stop: bus stop type, number of passengers alighting or boarding, DT, TBST, number of lanes on approach to the bus stop, presence of parking, and bus pad length. The data was analyzed and all statistical inferences were conducted based on 95% confidence interval. The results show that the TBST could be used to aid in improving planning and scheduling of transit bus systems in an urban area

Predicting Acceptable Wait Times for Patrons at Transit Bus Stops by Time of Day

The time spent waiting by bus patrons at bus stops is a primary measure for assessing the reliability of transit services. Uncertainty associated with waiting affects bus patrons’ perception of quality of the service provided. Consequently, this study aimed to determine patrons’ maximum and minimum acceptable wait times at bus stops in Washington, DC and to develop prediction models to provide decision-makers with additional tools for improving patronage. The data used in this study was obtained by surveying 3,388 bus patrons at 71 selected bus stops in Washington, D.C. over an eight-month period. Data obtained from patrons included their ethnicity, gender, minimum and maximum acceptable wait times (beyond the scheduled bus arrival time), alternate transportation mode choice, and knowledge of bus arrival times. Additionally, data on the operational characteristic of the buses were obtained via video playback of video recordings of cameras installed at the selected bus stops. In addition, information and conditions at each bus stop at the time of each survey was recorded. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine if there were any statistically significant differences in the maximum acceptable wait time of patrons based on gender and ethnicity. Further, models were developed to predict the maximum acceptable wait time of patrons. From the results, the mean of the reported maximum acceptable wait time was 8.5 minutes and 8 minutes, for female and male patrons, respectively. Also, the highest reported acceptable wait time beyond the scheduled bus arrival time was 20 minutes, while the mean differences between the maximum acceptable wait times of patrons grouped by ethnicity were determined to be statistically significant at a 5% significance level. Also, the results showed that White patrons had statistically significant lower maximum acceptable wait times than did patrons of other racial/ethnic groups

Changes in social security eligibility and the international mobility of New Zealand citizens in Australia

This paper is concerned with the international mobility of New Zealanders who migrate to Australia. One in ten New Zealand citizens lives in Australia and their settlement and subsequent mobility is important from demographic, socio-economic and policy perspectives in both countries. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on New Zealand citizens arriving for a stay of 12 months or longer between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2002, we track all subsequent moves of these migrants out of and back into Australia, up to July 2005. This allows us to assess the impact of the removal of labour market-related social security eligibility and some other policy changes affecting New Zealand migrants to Australia, implemented between February and June 2001. United Kingdom migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a ‘control group’. Using hazard models, we find that the policy changes increased the probability of remigration from Australia among those who had intended to settle permanently. Competing risk models suggested no difference between the impact of the policy changes on onward or return moves. Settlers arriving after the policy changes spend less time Australia and make more trips away than earlier migrants

How to Staff when Customers Arrive in Batches

In settings as diverse as autonomous vehicles, cloud computing, and pandemic quarantines, requests for service can arrive in near or true simultaneity with one another. This creates batches of arrivals to the underlying queueing system. In this paper, we study the staffing problem for the batch arrival queue. We show that batches place a significant stress on services, and thus require a high amount of resources and preparation. In fact, we find that there is no economy of scale as the number of customers in each batch increases, creating a stark contrast with the square root safety staffing rules enjoyed by systems with solitary arrivals of customers. Furthermore, when customers arrive both quickly and in batches, an economy of scale can exist, but it is weaker than what is typically expected. Methodologically, these staffing results follow from novel large batch and hybrid large-batch-and-large-rate limits of the general multi-server queueing model. In the pure large batch limit, we establish the first formal connection between multi-server queues and storage processes, another family of stochastic processes. By consequence, we show that the limit of the batch scaled queue length process is not asymptotically normal, and that, in fact, the fluid and diffusion-type limits coincide. This is what drives our staffing analysis of the batch arrival queue, and what implies that the (safety) staffing of this system must be directly proportional to the batch size just to achieve a non-degenerate probability of customers waiting

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties