Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)

A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable ?impact? on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process

Taking apart the roads ahead: user power versus the futurology of IT

How often have futurologists ever succeeded in making accurate global predictions? Bell’s utopian vision of a leisure-laden ‘Post-Industrial’ society now seems hopelessly naive; Fukuyama’s ‘End of history’ thesis was arguably just a fleeting Reaganite delusion about the stabilization of post Cold War politics. Notwithstanding the failure of such widely hailed prophesies, and despite the lack of any well-attested laws about the historical development of information technologies, a brazenly upbeat futurology pervades many debates on new IT. This is most obviously the case in Bill Gates’ recently updated The Road Ahead. To challenge Gates’ prognostications about the future of information technologies, I will argue for the importance of users (vis-à-vis producers) in the social shaping and ‘consumption’ of IT, especially the power of many (if not necessarily all) such users to resist falling into futures that others prescribe for them. I contend that the non-passivity of IT users undermines the cogency of any claims about the inevitability of technological change, and helps to explain why so many past ‘futures’ of IT have never fully materialized

Use of creative tools, technologies, processes and practices in the sectors of Art, Media, and Architecture: State-of the-Art and desired future scenarios

The aim of the paper is to analyse and present the preliminary findings of the EU FP7 funded CRe-AM project for the Art, Media, and Architecture sectors. This project bridges communities of technology providers and innovators with the creative industries, with the aim to build sector-specific dynamic roadmaps for the future of the European creative industries by examining the current state-of-the-art tools, technologies, processes, and practices supporting the creative process against the future scenarios envisioned by stakeholders in these sectors.This work was carried out as part of CRe-AM project, which is supported by European Commission (grant agreement n°612451)

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.Forecasting;Electronic Markets;Information Markets;Virtual Stock Markets

Prediction Markets:A literature review 2014

In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 304 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results are further compared to two previous works published by Zhao, Wagner and Chen (2008) and Tziralis and Tatsiopoulos (2007a). The article concludes with an extended bibliography section and may therefore serve as a guidance and basis for further research. (250 WORDS

What is the next chapter of the fashion retail industry? Strategic options model

This Work Project aims to understand the future of the fashion retail industry in 10–15 years. Based on a scenario planning process, this thesis explores strategic options for companies operating in this industry. This study shows that no one-size-fits-all positioning is suitable for all companies. It is more likely that different strategic choices need to be made with regards to the intended positioning and level of organizational resources. Finally, two stereotypes of companies have been identified based on the two extremes Fast Fashion and Slow Fashion. For each, this thesis develops positioning recommendations in a space of strategic options

Development of a virtual power plant based on a flexible biogas plant and a photovoltaic-system

The aim of this project is to develop an integrated power plant through Virtual Power Plant (VPP) in order to respond to load demands by considering a corresponding power market product. The results show that the deployment of Multi-Agent based System (MAS) and Smart Grid Architecture Model (SGAM) concepts support the idea of the integration of intermittent RES (Photovoltaic) and flexible power generators (biogas, battery) in a VPP. The developed VPP quickly reacts to changing requirements (legal, economic, technical) without harming the stability of the system.Das Hauptziel dieser Studie ist die Entwicklung einer integrierten Stromerzeugung durch virtuelles Kraftwerk (VK), um auf die Lastnachfrage zu reagieren bzw. Strommarktprodukte zu liefern. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Multi-Agent basiertes System (MAS) und Smart Grid Architekturmodell (SGAM) die Integration intermittierender erneuerbarer Energien (Photovoltaik) und flexibler Kraftwerke (Biogas, Batterie) in ein VK ermöglichen. Das entwickelte VK kann schnell auf sich ändernde Anforderungen (rechtlich, wirtschaftlich, technisch) reagieren, ohne die Stabilität des Systems zu beeinträchtigen