A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models

A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning in Remote Sensing: Theories, Tools and Challenges for the Community

In recent years, deep learning (DL), a re-branding of neural networks (NNs), has risen to the top in numerous areas, namely computer vision (CV), speech recognition, natural language processing, etc. Whereas remote sensing (RS) possesses a number of unique challenges, primarily related to sensors and applications, inevitably RS draws from many of the same theories as CV; e.g., statistics, fusion, and machine learning, to name a few. This means that the RS community should be aware of, if not at the leading edge of, of advancements like DL. Herein, we provide the most comprehensive survey of state-of-the-art RS DL research. We also review recent new developments in the DL field that can be used in DL for RS. Namely, we focus on theories, tools and challenges for the RS community. Specifically, we focus on unsolved challenges and opportunities as it relates to (i) inadequate data sets, (ii) human-understandable solutions for modelling physical phenomena, (iii) Big Data, (iv) non-traditional heterogeneous data sources, (v) DL architectures and learning algorithms for spectral, spatial and temporal data, (vi) transfer learning, (vii) an improved theoretical understanding of DL systems, (viii) high barriers to entry, and (ix) training and optimizing the DL.Comment: 64 pages, 411 references. To appear in Journal of Applied Remote Sensin

Predicting the Daily Return Direction of the Stock Market using Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms

Big data analytic techniques associated with machine learning algorithms are playing an increasingly important role in various application fields, including stock market investment. However, few studies have focused on forecasting daily stock market returns, especially when using powerful machine learning techniques, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), to perform the analyses. DNNs employ various deep learning algorithms based on the combination of network structure, activation function, and model parameters, with their performance depending on the format of the data representation. This paper presents a comprehensive big data analytics process to predict the daily return direction of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker symbol: SPY) based on 60 financial and economic features. DNNs and traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) are then deployed over the entire preprocessed but untransformed dataset, along with two datasets transformed via principal component analysis (PCA), to predict the daily direction of future stock market index returns. While controlling for overfitting, a pattern for the classification accuracy of the DNNs is detected and demonstrated as the number of the hidden layers increases gradually from 12 to 1000. Moreover, a set of hypothesis testing procedures are implemented on the classification, and the simulation results show that the DNNs using two PCA-represented datasets give significantly higher classification accuracy than those using the entire untransformed dataset, as well as several other hybrid machine learning algorithms. In addition, the trading strategies guided by the DNN classification process based on PCA-represented data perform slightly better than the others tested, including in a comparison against two standard benchmarks

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Machine learning methods for the characterization and classification of complex data

This thesis work presents novel methods for the analysis and classification of medical images and, more generally, complex data. First, an unsupervised machine learning method is proposed to order anterior chamber OCT (Optical Coherence Tomography) images according to a patient's risk of developing angle-closure glaucoma. In a second study, two outlier finding techniques are proposed to improve the results of above mentioned machine learning algorithm, we also show that they are applicable to a wide variety of data, including fraud detection in credit card transactions. In a third study, the topology of the vascular network of the retina, considering it a complex tree-like network is analyzed and we show that structural differences reveal the presence of glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy. In a fourth study we use a model of a laser with optical injection that presents extreme events in its intensity time-series to evaluate machine learning methods to forecast such extreme events.El presente trabajo de tesis desarrolla nuevos métodos para el análisis y clasificación de imágenes médicas y datos complejos en general. Primero, proponemos un método de aprendizaje automático sin supervisión que ordena imágenes OCT (tomografía de coherencia óptica) de la cámara anterior del ojo en función del grado de riesgo del paciente de padecer glaucoma de ángulo cerrado. Luego, desarrollamos dos métodos de detección automática de anomalías que utilizamos para mejorar los resultados del algoritmo anterior, pero que su aplicabilidad va mucho más allá, siendo útil, incluso, para la detección automática de fraudes en transacciones de tarjetas de crédito. Mostramos también, cómo al analizar la topología de la red vascular de la retina considerándola una red compleja, podemos detectar la presencia de glaucoma y de retinopatía diabética a través de diferencias estructurales. Estudiamos también un modelo de un láser con inyección óptica que presenta eventos extremos en la serie temporal de intensidad para evaluar diferentes métodos de aprendizaje automático para predecir dichos eventos extremos.Aquesta tesi desenvolupa nous mètodes per a l’anàlisi i la classificació d’imatges mèdiques i dades complexes. Hem proposat, primer, un mètode d’aprenentatge automàtic sense supervisió que ordena imatges OCT (tomografia de coherència òptica) de la cambra anterior de l’ull en funció del grau de risc del pacient de patir glaucoma d’angle tancat. Després, hem desenvolupat dos mètodes de detecció automàtica d’anomalies que hem utilitzat per millorar els resultats de l’algoritme anterior, però que la seva aplicabilitat va molt més enllà, sent útil, fins i tot, per a la detecció automàtica de fraus en transaccions de targetes de crèdit. Mostrem també, com en analitzar la topologia de la xarxa vascular de la retina considerant-la una xarxa complexa, podem detectar la presència de glaucoma i de retinopatia diabètica a través de diferències estructurals. Finalment, hem estudiat un làser amb injecció òptica, el qual presenta esdeveniments extrems en la sèrie temporal d’intensitat. Hem avaluat diferents mètodes per tal de predir-los.Postprint (published version

Big Data - Supply Chain Management Framework for Forecasting: Data Preprocessing and Machine Learning Techniques

This article intends to systematically identify and comparatively analyze state-of-the-art supply chain (SC) forecasting strategies and technologies. A novel framework has been proposed incorporating Big Data Analytics in SC Management (problem identification, data sources, exploratory data analysis, machine-learning model training, hyperparameter tuning, performance evaluation, and optimization), forecasting effects on human-workforce, inventory, and overall SC. Initially, the need to collect data according to SC strategy and how to collect them has been discussed. The article discusses the need for different types of forecasting according to the period or SC objective. The SC KPIs and the error-measurement systems have been recommended to optimize the top-performing model. The adverse effects of phantom inventory on forecasting and the dependence of managerial decisions on the SC KPIs for determining model performance parameters and improving operations management, transparency, and planning efficiency have been illustrated. The cyclic connection within the framework introduces preprocessing optimization based on the post-process KPIs, optimizing the overall control process (inventory management, workforce determination, cost, production and capacity planning). The contribution of this research lies in the standard SC process framework proposal, recommended forecasting data analysis, forecasting effects on SC performance, machine learning algorithms optimization followed, and in shedding light on future research