Prospects for large-scale financial systems simulation

As the 21st century unfolds, we find ourselves having to control, support, manage or otherwise cope with large-scale complex adaptive systems to an extent that is unprecedented in human history. Whether we are concerned with issues of food security, infrastructural resilience, climate change, health care, web science, security, or financial stability, we face problems that combine scale, connectivity, adaptive dynamics, and criticality. Complex systems simulation is emerging as the key scientific tool for dealing with such complex adaptive systems. Although a relatively new paradigm, it is one that has already established a track record in fields as varied as ecology (Grimm and Railsback, 2005), transport (Nagel et al., 1999), neuroscience (Markram, 2006), and ICT (Bullock and Cliff, 2004). In this report, we consider the application of simulation methodologies to financial systems, assessing the prospects for continued progress in this line of research

A proposal for the evaluation of adaptive information retrieval systems using simulated interaction

The Centre for Next Generation Localisation (CNGL) is involved in building interactive adaptive systems which combine Information Retrieval (IR), Adaptive Hypermedia (AH) and adaptive web techniques and technologies. The complex functionality of these systems coupled with the variety of potential users means that the experiments necessary to evaluate such systems are difficult to plan, implement and execute. This evaluation requires both component-level scientific evaluation and user-based evaluation. Automated replication of experiments and simulation of user interaction would be hugely beneficial in the evaluation of adaptive information retrieval systems (AIRS). This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of AIRS which leverages simulated interaction. The hybrid approach detailed combines: (i) user-centred methods for simulating interaction and personalisation; (ii) evaluation metrics that combine Human Computer Interaction (HCI), AH and IR techniques; and (iii) the use of qualitative and quantitative evaluations. The benefits and limitations of evaluations based on user simulations are also discussed

A spiral model for adding automatic, adaptive authoring to adaptive hypermedia

At present a large amount of research exists into the design and implementation of adaptive systems. However, not many target the complex task of authoring in such systems, or their evaluation. In order to tackle these problems, we have looked into the causes of the complexity. Manual annotation has proven to be a bottleneck for authoring of adaptive hypermedia. One such solution is the reuse of automatically generated metadata. In our previous work we have proposed the integration of the generic Adaptive Hypermedia authoring environment, MOT ( My Online Teacher), and a semantic desktop environment, indexed by Beagle++. A prototype, Sesame2MOT Enricher v1, was built based upon this integration approach and evaluated. After the initial evaluations, a web-based prototype was built (web-based Sesame2MOT Enricher v2 application) and integrated in MOT v2, conforming with the findings of the first set of evaluations. This new prototype underwent another evaluation. This paper thus does a synthesis of the approach in general, the initial prototype, with its first evaluations, the improved prototype and the first results from the most recent evaluation round, following the next implementation cycle of the spiral model [Boehm, 88]

Flexible and Intelligent Learning Architectures for SOS (FILA-SoS)

Multi-faceted systems of the future will entail complex logic and reasoning with many levels of reasoning in intricate arrangement. The organization of these systems involves a web of connections and demonstrates self-driven adaptability. They are designed for autonomy and may exhibit emergent behavior that can be visualized. Our quest continues to handle complexities, design and operate these systems. The challenge in Complex Adaptive Systems design is to design an organized complexity that will allow a system to achieve its goals. This report attempts to push the boundaries of research in complexity, by identifying challenges and opportunities. Complex adaptive system-of-systems (CASoS) approach is developed to handle this huge uncertainty in socio-technical systems

A methodological framework for the analysis and design of Adaptive Web-based Information Systems

Due to the growing popularity and complexity of the Web, designing a web site is becoming a complex and difficult process, that needs to be supported by more powerful Web engineering methods. In this paper, we present our ongoing research on defining a methodological framework for the analysis and design of Adaptive Web-based Information Systems (AWIS). Adaptive systems use knowledge about a particular user, represented in the user model, to adapt their information , organization, and presentation to that user. Our approach is driven by an elicited set of High Level Users Goals, which allows intended users to come closer to satisfying their specific needs and preferences. It is composed of a number of process step guidelines along with their respective product models, that enables the Web designer to model his/her AWIS at different levels of abstraction. Thus, an AWIS is modeled at the conceptual level as modular adaptive views over the Information Domain, the conceptual schemas are then transformed into a logical level representation, which enables the actual implementation of the AWIS

A Voice-Enabled Framework for Recommender and Adaptation Systems in E-Learning

With the proliferation of learning resources on the Web, finding suitable content (using telephone) has become a rigorous task for voice-based online learners to achieve better performance. The problem with Finding Content Suitability (FCS) with voice E-Learning applications is more complex when the sight-impaired learner is involved. Existing voice-enabled applications in the domain of E-Learning lack the attributes of adaptive and reusable learning objects to be able to address the FCS problem. This study provides a Voice-enabled Framework for Recommender and Adaptation (VeFRA) Systems in E-learning and an implementation of a system based on the framework with dual user interfaces – voice and Web. A usability study was carried out in a visually impaired and non-visually impaired school using the International Standard Organization’s (ISO) 9241-11 specification to determine the level of effectiveness, efficiency and user satisfaction. The result of the usability evaluation reveals that the prototype application developed for the school has “Good Usability” rating of 4.13 out of 5 scale. This shows that the application will not only complement existing mobile and Web-based learning systems, but will be of immense benefit to users, based on the system’s capacity for taking autonomous decisions that are capable of adapting to the needs of both visually impaired and non-visually impaired learners

Engineering Cyber Physical Systems: Machine Learning, Data Analytics and Smart Systems Architecting Preface

Multi-faceted systems of the future will entail complex logic with many levels of reasoning in intricate arrangement. The organization of these systems involves a web of connections and demonstrates self-driven adaptability. They are designed for autonomy and may exhibit emergent behavior that can be visualized. We are building systems that are created by a network of physical objects that contain embedded technology to communicate and interact with their internal states or the external environment. These changes in technology and deployment of system of systems having these new characteristics are demanding new ways of thinking and engineering. These are complex adaptive systems that can have emergent behavior and require systems integration and engineering in their design and operation

Engineering Cyber Physical Systems: Preface

Multi-faceted systems of the future will entail complex logic with many levels of reasoning in intricate arrangement. The organization of these systems involves a web of connections and demonstrates self-driven adaptability. They are designed for autonomy and may exhibit emergent behavior that can be visualized. Complex Adaptive Systems have dynamically changing meta-architectures. Finding an optimal architecture for these systems is a multi-criteria decision making problem often involving many objectives in the order of 20 or more. This creates Pareto Breakdown which prevents ordinary multi-objective optimization approaches from effectively searching for an optimal solution; saturating the decision maker with large sets of solutions that may not be representative for a compromise architecture selection from the solution space

Life-long learning on the inclusive web

If our formal education systems were to be graded on achieving the following assignment: “to enable all students to reach their diverse, full potential, so that they can be prosperous, self-guided contributors to our global community,” our systems of education would be flunking. The impact of this failure will exponentially worsen over time, given socio-technical trends. To achieve this crucial learning goal we need more than incremental improvement. We need disruptive innovation. Can the Web be the disruptive impetus and generative scaffolding for an education system that can achieve this goal? How can we both reform and leverage Web accessibility approaches to support this mission? These are the questions explored in this article. Complex adaptive systems, emerging decentralized systems of trust, “small” and “thick” data analytics, Internet of things sensing, open platforms, but most importantly --connected communities, are all recruited in the thought experiment to craft a candidate response