Assessing the Quality of Regulatory Impact Analyses

This study provides the most comprehensive evaluation of the quality of recent economic analyses that agencies conduct before finalizing major regulations. We construct a new dataset that includes analyses of forty-eight major health, safety, and environmental regulations from mid-1996 to mid-1999. This dataset provides detailed information on a variety of issues, including an agency's treatment of benefits, costs, net benefits, discounting, and uncertainty. We use this dataset to assess the quality of recent economic analyses and to determine the extent to which they are consistent with President Clinton's Executive Order 12866 and the benefit-cost guidelines issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). We find that economic analyses prepared by regulatory agencies typically do not provide enough information to make decisions that will maximize the efficiency or effectiveness of a rule. Agencies quantified net benefits for only 29 percent of the rules. Agencies failed to discuss alternatives in 27 percent of the rules and quantified costs and benefits of alternatives in only 31 percent of the rules. Our findings strongly suggest that agencies generally failed to comply with the executive order and adhere to the OMB guidelines. We offer specific suggestions for improving the quality of analysis and the transparency of the regulatory process, including writing clear executive summaries, making analyses available on the Internet, providing more careful consideration of alternatives to a regulation, and estimating net benefits of a regulation when data on costs and benefits are provided.

How Well Does the U.S. Government Do Cost-Benefit Analysis?

To make prudent recommendations for improving the use of cost-benefit analysis in policy settings, some measures of how well it is actually done are essential. This paper develops new insights on the potential usefulness of government cost-benefit analysis by examining how it is actually performed in the U.S. We assess the quality of a particularly rich sample of cost-benefit analyses of federal regulations. The data set we use for assessing the quality of regulatory analysis is the largest assembled to date for this purpose. Theseventy-four analyses we examine span the Reagan administration, the first Bush and the Clinton administration. The paper is the first to assess systematically how government cost-benefit analysis has changed over time. There are three key findings. First, a significant percentage of the analyses in all three administrations do not provide some very basic economic information, such as information on net benefits and policy alternatives. For example, over 70% of the analyses in the sample failed to provide any quantitative information on net benefits. Second, there is no clear trend in the quality of cost-benefit analysis across administrations. Third, there is a great deal of variation in the quality of individual cost-benefit analyses.

Gry wojenne. Ewaluacja ewaluacji nauki

Artykuł przedstawia subiektywne spostrzeżenia autorki na temat funkcji ewaluacji współczesnej nauki realizowanej m.in. przez ocenę danych bibliograficznych. Po krótkim wstępie przypominającym rolę nauki oraz rolę jej ewaluacji przedstawione zostały aktualne problemy związane z oceną produktywności środowisk naukowych. Część z nich nie wynika z niskiej jakości danych bibliograficznych, ale raczej z braku powszechnej akceptacji obecnie stosowanych metod ilościowych wynikającej chociażby z nieintuicyjnego i nieprzewidywalnego zachowania się niektórych wskaźników oraz braku powszechnego przekonania, że odzwierciedlają one wymiar pozytywnego wpływu danych dokonań naukowych na dziedziny życia codziennego. Powoduje to włączanie metod eksperckich jako składowych metod złożonych, co skutkuje dodatkowym zmniejszeniem przejrzystości systemu oceny. Autorka, posiłkując się ilustrowanym przykładem, stawia hipotezę, że dalsze poszukiwanie metod ilościowej oceny wkładu naukowego bazujących na zastanym, tradycyjnym modelu danych bibliograficznych może stanowić ślepą uliczkę, na wyjście z której daje szansę rozbudowa tego modelu na przykład w stronę możliwości uwzględniania zależności wagowych

Gry wojenne. Ewaluacja ewaluacji nauki

Artykuł przedstawia subiektywne spostrzeżenia autorki na temat funkcji ewaluacji współczesnej nauki realizowanej m.in. przez ocenę danych bibliograficznych. Po krótkim wstępie przypominającym rolę nauki oraz rolę jej ewaluacji przedstawione zostały aktualne problemy związane z oceną produktywności środowisk naukowych. Część z nich nie wynika z niskiej jakości danych bibliograficznych, ale raczej z braku powszechnej akceptacji obecnie stosowanych metod ilościowych wynikającej chociażby z nieintuicyjnego i nieprzewidywalnego zachowania się niektórych wskaźników oraz braku powszechnego przekonania, że odzwierciedlają one wymiar pozytywnego wpływu danych dokonań naukowych na dziedziny życia codziennego. Powoduje to włączanie metod eksperckich jako składowych metod złożonych, co skutkuje dodatkowym zmniejszeniem przejrzystości systemu oceny. Autorka, posiłkując się ilustrowanym przykładem, stawia hipotezę, że dalsze poszukiwanie metod ilościowej oceny wkładu naukowego bazujących na zastanym, tradycyjnym modelu danych bibliograficznych może stanowić ślepą uliczkę, na wyjście z której daje szansę rozbudowa tego modelu na przykład w stronę możliwości uwzględniania zależności wagowych

Gry wojenne. Ewaluacja ewaluacji nauki

The article presents the author’s subjective observations upon the function of evaluation of modern science conducted by the use of evaluation of bibliographic data. After a short introduction which is a short report on the role of science and the role of its evaluation there is a place to present current problems connected with evaluation of productivity of scientific environments. Part of them is not a result of low quality bibliographic data but due to the lack of acceptance of currently implemented quantitative methods. Additionally, it results in unintuitive and unpredictable behavior of some indicators and thus it results in the lack of common beliefs that they reflect a positive impact of given scientific achievements on the domains of everyday life. It causes the implementation of expert methods as components of complex methods which results in additional reduction of clarity in the evaluation system.The author, with the help of a given example, puts a hypothesis that further search of quantitative methods of evaluation of scientific contribution based on the existing, traditional model of bibliographic data can prove to be a dead end. Chances to exit from it are located in the development of that model in the scope of taking into account the weight dependencies.Artykuł przedstawia subiektywne spostrzeżenia autorki na temat funkcji ewaluacji współczesnej nauki realizowanej m.in. przez ocenę danych bibliograficznych. Po krótkim wstępie przypominającym rolę nauki oraz rolę jej ewaluacji przedstawione zostały aktualne problemy związane z oceną produktywności środowisk naukowych. Część z nich nie wynika z niskiej jakości danych bibliograficznych, ale raczej z braku powszechnej akceptacji obecnie stosowanych metod ilościowych wynikającej chociażby z nieintuicyjnego i nieprzewidywalnego zachowania się niektórych wskaźników oraz braku powszechnego przekonania, że odzwierciedlają one wymiar pozytywnego wpływu danych dokonań naukowych na dziedziny życia codziennego. Powoduje to włączanie metod eksperckich jako składowych metod złożonych, co skutkuje dodatkowym zmniejszeniem przejrzystości systemu oceny. Autorka, posiłkując się ilustrowanym przykładem, stawia hipotezę, że dalsze poszukiwanie metod ilościowej oceny wkładu naukowego bazujących na zastanym, tradycyjnym modelu danych bibliograficznych może stanowić ślepą uliczkę, na wyjście z której daje szansę rozbudowa tego modelu na przykład w stronę możliwości uwzględniania zależności wagowych

Assessing Regulatory Impact Analyses: The Failure of Agencies to Comply With Executive Order 12,866

None.Environment, Health and Safety, Regulatory Reform

Initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass

Wildfires are naturally occurring phenomena that result in significant and catastrophic damage. Due to climate change, there has been a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires. Therefore, there is a growing need to mitigate wildfire risk. In order to help mitigate the risk of wildfires, greater understanding is required. One particular gap in knowledge is the impact of smouldering combustion of potential fuel on wildfires. This thesis focuses on combustion of fuel beds in wildfires. Specifically, the thesis targets smouldering combustion. Smouldering combustion is a common type of combustion regime in wildfires and hazard reduction burning (a wildfire mitigation measure). Smouldering is a slow and low-temperature form of combustion, which shows no flame. Smouldering is a serious hazard because of its low ignition temperature, which makes it particularly relevant to fire initiation and spread. Smouldering plays a vital role in wildfires, as many forest biomass fuels such as grass, leaves and coarse woody debris are prone to smoulder. Most previous studies of smouldering combustion have only been carried out on polyurethane foam, due to its importance for residential fires. However, smouldering has been scarcely investigated from the point of view of wildfires. For example, smouldering combustion of forest fuel is scarcely studied. Hence, the project aims to develop a greater understanding of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass under different conditions with an emphasis on wildfire. Locating smouldering combustion in wildfires and hazard reduction burning is difficult and time-consuming, as there is no effective method to identify the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. It is critical to know when and where smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed starts, as smouldering combustion could transition to flaming combustion under certain conditions. Radiation is one of the important heat transfer mechanisms in wildfires; however, there are few studies on smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds started by external radiant heat flux. Although oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration have significant in influences on the propagation of smouldering front, their effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuels are not well understood. Hence, the effects of oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration on the initiation of smouldering combustion are investigated. Fuels in a forest are diverse, and it is essential to have a better understanding of what effects forest fuels have on smouldering combustion. Thus, the effects of plant species and plant parts on the initiation of smouldering in biomass fuel beds are also investigated. Within this framework, the work presented in this thesis can be split into two main topics: 1. Conditions required to initiate smouldering combustion in bio- mass fuel beds The required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed are investigated in an experimental testing rig. This investigation identifies and quantifies smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion are determined. The effects of heating time and oxygen concentration on the initiation of radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are investigated in the same testing rig. In this experimental study, the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are characterised based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required heating time and oxygen concentration for radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are determined. 2. Factors that influence smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds The results from the first topic reveal that oxygen availability has significant effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed. The air permeability of a biomass fuel bed determines oxygen availability in that fuel bed. Hence, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is investigated in an air permeability testing rig. In this study, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is determined using experimental and theoretical methods. A comparison between the experimental and theoretical methods is made. The effects of Euca- lyptus species and plant parts on smouldering combustion are also investigated. In this study, the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus species are characterised based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. The results of this study show that the differences among the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus can be characterised and quantified based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. It is also found that Eucalyptus species and plant parts have significant effects on smouldering combustion. Although this thesis covers a series of experimental studies of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. There are still many important factors to be considered. For examples, the thesis focuses on small-scale laboratory experiments to better understand the fundamental studies of smouldering combustion of biomass. However, the real-world conditions could be much more complex. For example, forest fuel beds are composed with fuel particles with various sizes and shapes. These factors also have effects on smouldering combustion.Thesis (Ph.D.) (Research by Publication) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mechanical Engineering, 201

Cross-border contraband trade across the main route from Moyale to Hawassa: an exploration into the causes and consequences

Globally and specifically in Africa, governments' major revenues, and the countries' peace and security, are challenged by the increasing nature of illegal cross border trade. As a result, the issue of contraband is attracting the attention of both the academics and practitioners. It is with this reality that this study stood with the general objective of exploring the causes and consequences of cross-border contraband trade across the main route from Moyale (border town between Ethiopia and Kenya) to Hawassa (the capital of Ethiopian Southern region). To this end, exploratory study was conducted involving analysis of both primary and secondary data. Primary data were collected through key informant interview carried out with contrabandists, local business people, customs and revenue authority personnel and town administration heads and security officials. Secondary data were collected from official documents of relevant authorities. The study indicated that contraband trade being carried out across the main route from Moyale to Hawasa is a result of multiple factors that are generally grouped into individual and social, policy, and institutional causes. Meanwhile, the lost revenue and foreign exchange, its negative effect on the formal business development, regional security and stability and health are the indentified consequences among others. Moreover, though the government tired to tackle these negative consequences of the business through various interventions, the success so far is limited. The authors recommend that a synergetic approach should be adopted by the multiple actors at multiple levels to develop a comprehensive strategy to address the causes of contraband business.Keywords: Contraband, Cross-border trade, Customs, Smuggling, Chain of Supply, Moyale-Kenya, Ethiopi

A Systematic Review of Falls Risk of Frail Patients with Dementia in Hospital: Progress, Challenges, and Recommendations

Naomi Davey,1 Eimear Connolly,1 Paul Mc Elwaine,1,2 Sean P Kennelly1,2 1Department of Age Related Healthcare, Tallaght University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland; 2Department of Medical Gerontology, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, IrelandCorrespondence: Naomi Davey, Department of Age-Related Healthcare, Tallaght University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland, Email [email protected]: This review article assesses the effectiveness and limitations of strategies to reduce falls among hospitalized older adults with frailty and dementia. It explores the efficacy of existing fall prevention strategies for a cohort that is acutely susceptible to falls and fall-related consequences. A systematic literature search was conducted across MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycINFO, employing Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) to identify studies on fall prevention strategies in hospitalized older adults with both dementia and frailty published from 2013 to 2023. The initial 643 records were distilled to eight articles, with Structured Interdisciplinary Bedside Rounds (SIBR) emerging as a notable intervention. SIBR demonstrated a reduction in falls by fostering improved interdisciplinary communication and care planning. However, a decline in family engagement during consecutive sessions suggests a need for strategies to sustain familial involvement. The findings advocate for patient-centered interventions that address the cognitive and functional challenges faced by this cohort of older adults. This review advocates for comprehensive and inclusive research in hospital environments to improve fall prevention strategies for frail older adults with dementia.Keywords: fall prevention, frailty, dementia, hospitalized older adults, interdisciplinary collaboration, patient-centered intervention

EU-Korea FTA and Its Impact on V4 Economies. A Comparative Analysis of Trade Sophistication and Intra-Industry Trade

This paper investigates selected short- and mid-term effects in trade in goods between the Visegrad countries (V4: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic) and the Republic of Korea under the framework of the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of Korea. This Agreement is described in the “Trade for All” (2015: 9) strategy as the most ambitious trade deal ever implemented by the EU. The primary purpose of our analysis is to identify, compare, and evaluate the evolution of the technological sophistication of bilateral exports and imports. Another dimension of the paper concentrates on the developments within intra-industry trade. Moreover, these objectives are approached taking into account the context of the South Korean direct investment inflow to the V4. The evaluation of technological sophistication is based on UNCTAD’s methodology, while the intensity of intra-industry trade is measured by the GL-index and identification of its subcategories (horizontal and vertical trade). The analysis covers the timespan 2001–2015. The novelty of the paper lies in the fact that the study of South Korean-V4 trade relations has not so far been carried out from this perspective. Thus this paper investigates interesting phenomena identified in the trade between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and V4 economies. The main findings imply an impact of South Korean direct investments on trade. This is represented by the trade deficit of the V4 with ROK and the structure of bilateral trade in terms of its technological sophistication. South Korean investments might also have had positive consequences for the evolution of IIT, particularly in the machinery sector. The political interpretation indicates that they may strengthen common threats associated with the middle-income trap, particularly the technological gap and the emphasis placed on lower costs of production