Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in Livelihood Vulnerability Analysis

Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems, as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. We applied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of both direct and indirect feedbacks and can be used to explore the vulnerabilities of livelihoods to identified hazards. We studied characteristics and drivers of rural livelihoods in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southern Africa to assess the vulnerability of inhabitants to the different hazards they face. The process involved four steps: (1) surveys and interviews to identify the major livelihood types; (2) description of specific livelihood types in a system format using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that models systems based on people’s knowledge; (3) linking variables and drivers in FCMs by attaching weights; and (4) defining and applying scenarios to visualize the effects of drought and changing park boundaries on cash and household food security. FCMs successfully gave information concerning the nature (increase or decrease) and magnitude by which a livelihood system changed under different scenarios. However, they did not explain the recovery path in relation to time and pattern (e.g., how long it takes for cattle to return to desired numbers after a drought). Using FCMs revealed that issues of policy, such as changing situations at borders, can strongly aggravate effects of climate change such as drought. FCMs revealed hidden knowledge and gave insights that improved the understanding of the complexity of livelihood systems in a way that is better appreciated by stakeholders

A Method for Enhancing Capacity of Local Governance for Climate Change Adaptation

UID/AMB/04085/2019The lack of capacity for climate change adaptation at the subnational level has been highlighted as a key barrier to implementing the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. At the same time, the adaptive capacity of local governance is highly context sensitive, making a “one-size fits all” approach inappropriate. Thus, a versatile methodological approach for application in various local contexts is required. There are several indicator-based local governance assessment methods for evaluating the effectiveness of local governance for climate change adaptation. However, they fall short of identifying and prioritizing between key factors within local governance for enhancing adaptive capacity and driving positive change. Building on adaptation theory, the authors propose combining two methodological approaches, the Capital Approach Framework for evaluating the adaptive capacity of local governance and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for identifying leverage points, into one integrated modeling approach, which can be applied by local researchers. This paper describes the process and benefits of combining the methodological approaches, with an example provided as supporting information. Assisting decision-makers and policy planners from subnational governance in identifying leverage points to focus and maximize impact of capacity-enhancing measures would make a key contribution for successful implementation of the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans.publishersversionpublishe

Climate Science, Development Practice, and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agroecological Systems

The literature on drought, livelihoods, and poverty suggests that dryland residents are especially vulnerable to climate change. However, assessing this vulnerability and sharing lessons between dryland communities on how to reduce vulnerability has proven difficult because of multiple definitions of vulnerability, complexities in quantification, and the temporal and spatial variability inherent in dryland agroecological systems. In this closing editorial, we review how we have addressed these challenges through a series of structured, multiscale, and interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment case studies from drylands in West Africa, southern Africa, Mediterranean Europe, Asia, and Latin America. These case studies adopt a common vulnerability framework but employ different approaches to measuring and assessing vulnerability. By comparing methods and results across these cases, we draw out the following key lessons: (1) Our studies show the utility of using consistent conceptual frameworks for vulnerability assessments even when quite different methodological approaches are taken; (2) Utilizing narratives and scenarios to capture the dynamics of dryland agroecological systems shows that vulnerability to climate change may depend more on access to financial, political, and institutional assets than to exposure to environmental change; (3) Our analysis shows that although the results of quantitative models seem authoritative, they may be treated too literally as predictions of the future by policy makers looking for evidence to support different strategies. In conclusion, we acknowledge there is a healthy tension between bottom-up/ qualitative/place-based approaches and top-down/quantitative/generalizable approaches, and we encourage researchers from different disciplines with different disciplinary languages, to talk, collaborate, and engage effectively with each other and with stakeholders at all levels

Making sense of changing coastal systems: overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation using fuzzy cognitive mapping

This thesis describes the role and value of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) in undertaking coastal climate change adaptation at the local scale, comparing FCM against existing, scenario-based adaptation methods in overcoming known barriers to adaptation. It describes the attributes and limitations of FCM as a modelling tool, exploring what must be accounted for in considering the use of FCM in mixed stakeholder settings where individual and group knowledge must be integrated to form a view of the system under study, discussing in some detail the facilitation strengths and weaknesses inherent to the method. These issues are then described via reference to case-studies in Ireland and Scotland, drawing inferences regarding the ease with which an FCM-based approach to adaptation might be substituted for orthodox, scenario-based adaptation. This is found to not only be feasible, but preferable, provided there is sufficient facilitation capacity on hand to manage the added complexity that FCM carries over simple narrative scenario development. Adding to the value that FCM offers in adaptation contexts, the thesis also explores its value as both a diagnostic tool for establishing what additional capacity building or data may be required by adaptation decision makers, and also as a tool for gauging the extent to which resilience gains (or losses) might be measured. Although FCM cannot be claimed to provide a robust objective measure of resilience gains or losses, it can nevertheless usefully illustrate to decision makers the strengths and limitations of their own understanding of the systems which they must manage. This is perhaps where the future of FCM-based systems analysis in support of adaptation may ultimately lie

A collaborative approach for disaster risk reduction: mapping social learning with Mistawasis Nêhiyawak

Social learning and its relation to disaster risk reduction (DRR) have been increasingly highlighted in the literature. Yet, limited empirical research has hampered practical DRR applications. This thesis demonstrated social learning loops and their outcomes by reflecting on the case of 2011 flooding in Mistawasis Nêhiyawak. Using a mixed-methods research design, I explored the role of participatory processes, including communication of scientific knowledge to lay-experts, in social learning. First, I created flood extent maps for the community using spatial data and modeling techniques. In the second phase, I presented the maps in a workshop held at the community center to understand their value in regard to what people learn from them. This included deliberating not only about physical parameters of the flood but also exploring the social (and human) parameters. Hence, I used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a novel method to represent the human perception of flood risk and to measure social learning. In the workshop, FCM was complemented by focus group discussions and participatory mapping. From the results, it was found that i) social learning can be measured using social sciences tools, ii) sharing experiences and stories from past events augmented learning, and iii) awareness on the role of emergency planning in DRR was found to be a significant outcome of social learning. In the growing urgency of climate uncertainties, social learning theory will be critical in helping design practical and ethical research approaches to DRR that emphasize knowledge sharing, two-way communication, and reflexivity. These will ultimately have enhanced emphasis on behavioral responses to disasters that are complementary to the investments in structural responses

Applying a social-ecological systems approach to human-bear encounters across the Pacific Rim: advancing resilient human-wildlife management strategies

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014.Wildlife management is challenged with addressing human resource needs while simultaneously conserving wildlife populations. Conflicts between humans and wildlife have increased across Northern countries with the expansion of human communities and environmental changes. Lack of information exists about reasons for such occurrences. This study explores adaptive capacity and resilience in coupled human-wildlife systems through the analysis of social and ecological factors contributing to perceptions of negative and positive human-bear (Ursus spp.) encounters. I first developed a theory to evaluate human perceptions and behaviors during human-wildlife encounters. Secondly I adopted an interdisciplinary framework to analyze human-bear encounters in urbanizing regions of south Sakhalin Island, Russian Far-East, and southcentral Alaska, USA. These case studies facilitate an analysis of perception development across spatial and social scales while incorporating approaches of both social and ecological sciences. Hunting, tourism and overall anthropogenic impacts are central to bear management, whereas cultural and social interests are perceived to not be considered in bear management decision-making across study regions. In Alaska, political interests are prevalent in bear management, whereas on Sakhalin, economic interests, including illegal animal trade and poaching prevail. Across study regions the perception of an encounter with a bear was dependent on the socio-economic situation of the individual having the encounter. The higher a person's socio-economic status was, the higher was their probability to perceive bear encounters as positive. Further, spatial and social scales across which perceptions vary are identified. Scales include urban-non-urban areas, wildland-urban interfaces, and a recreation-subsistence interest divide. Outside of urban areas, people's interests in recreation versus subsistence affect their perceptions toward bear encounters. Subsistence collectors of fish, game or plants are more likely to have negative encounters. Within urban areas, increased experience with encountering bears and length of residency are associated with positive encounters, whereas closeness to residences while not in sheltered environments increases negative encounters. These findings constitute spatial and social barriers and benefits to individualistic perception formation during human-bear encounters. Their identification advances resilience in researched human-wildlife systems and helps us to understand the adaptive capacities within these communities. The successful spatially-explicit integration of social and ecological variables promotes the opportunities for integrating human dimensions in wildlife management.General Acknowledgements -- Chapter 2: Integrating complexity in the management of human-wildlife encounters -- Chapter 3: Understanding local peoples' perceptions toward bear management in Northern urbanizing regions -- Chapter 4: Spatial explicit perception mapping: socio-economic circumstances to impact perceptions and spatial pattern of human-bear encounters across scale -- Chapter 5: The impact of spatially explicit ecological and social variables on the development of perceptions during bear encounters in southcentral Alaska -- Chapter 6: General conclusions and future recommendations -- Appendices

Vulnerability and resilience of competing land-based livelihoods in south eastern Zimbabwe

Key words: vulnerability; resilience; livelihood; drought; Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area; south eastern Zimbabwe. Vulnerability and resilience have emerged as powerful analytical concepts in the study of socio-ecological systems. In this research these concepts are used to enhance our understanding of heterogeneous rural livelihoods in a semi-arid area on the western border of protected wildlife areas in Zimbabwe’s southeast lowveld. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a methodological approach that helps understanding the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to change and relate this to adaptive mechanisms employed by people to cope with the resulting change. Although most households in the study area keep livestock, practice arable farming, and receive remittances, they differ in terms of their dependency on cattle, cropping, and non-farm and off-farm activities, especially in years of drought. Households most dependent on livestock – the cattle-based livelihood type – generally cope with hazards by selling cattle. Households of the crop-based livelihood type strive to spread the risk of crop failure by cropping across the landscape, ranging from flood plains to uplands on the interfluves. Households of the non-farm livelihood type rely for their survival on paid employment outside the study area, mostly of households’ members working in South Africa. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was used to assess the vulnerability of the three livelihood types to different hazards. The vulnerability analysis shows that policies relating to the permeability and/or enforcement of protected area boundaries can strongly aggravate the effects of other external influences, such as drought or climate change. To cope with drought-induced fodder shortages, people of cattle-based households have recently started to use Neorautanenia amboensis (Schinz). This tuber shrub, locally known as Zhombwe, is now saving many cattle from death in periods of drought, thus reducing livestock keeping households vulnerability to drought. This thesis shows the anthelmintic properties of Zhombwe; its distribution in the field was quantified. Crop experiments explored adaptive strategies which can be used by the households of the crop-based livelihood type to increase food self-sufficiency. Results show that by making better use of different landscape units in the area food production can be increased, both in good and bad rainfall years. By applying a method like FCM and by analysing quantitatively different options for increasing the resilience of the local households, this thesis shows that it is key to take into account the heterogeneity of rural households in an area, as adaption options differ strongly between them. </p

A Pedagogy of Hope: Levers of Change in Transformative Place-based Learning Systems

In response to mounting wicked environmental problems and an outdated U.S. educational system, this dissertation investigates transformative place-based education as an adaptive boundary system that connects individual learning to positive social-ecological change. The research approaches learning through a systems lens through a novel framework of Social-ecological Systems, Place-based Education, and Transformative Learning Theories. A three-part mixed methods approach, including content analysis of the literature, phenomenological interviews with experts in place-based education, and fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping with educators at three schools practicing the principles of place-based education, is used to examine transformative place-based education from the perspectives of current U.S. place-based educators. Twenty-four components of a transformative place-based learning system are identified in the research and used in constructing fuzzy-logic cognitive maps. Four essential themes emerge from the data that are discussed as levers that link individual learning to positive social-ecological change: active engagement, context and connection to place, collaborative real-world problem solving, and courageous leadership. The research indicates that most central to transformative place-based learning experiences is real-world problem solving. The causal relationships between real-world problem solving and almost every other learning system component, including agency, change, and place, creates the strongest link in this study between individual learning and positive social-ecological change