Survey Analyses of The Specific Impacting Factors in Devising a Machine Learning Prediction model for The General Election Process in Kosovo

The focus of the research study was analyses of impacting factors and later to incorporate those insights into variables to be measured for devising a machine learning predictive model for prognosis and prediction of the general election turnout in Kosovo. We have developed a novel method for recognizing the main impacting factors in elections. Our method shows that finding out whether different ways of collecting different data of election voters can lead to much better prediction and understanding of the election process. In order to do that we needed to analyze the specific impacting factors in the election process in Kosovo are investigated during the study. The data has derived from an originally collected survey dataset that contains the impacting factors previously identified and assessed regarding the general parliamentary elections in Kosovo  has been realized. Insights and recommendation has been discussed and argumented

Bean Counters: The Effect of Soy Tariffs on Change in Republican Vote Share Between the 2016 and 2018 Elections.

How do trade wars affect presidential support? President Trump\u27s aggressive tariffs on China despite his largely rural electoral support base provide a unique opportunity to analyze the relationship between international trade policy and domestic support. If trade-related considerations were ever decisive to American voters, the stark decrease in soy prices, a direct effect of Trump-initiated tariffs immediately preceding the 2018 midterm election, serves as a critical test for studying their effect. This letter shows a robust inverse relationship between county-level soybean production and the change in Republican vote share between the 2016 and 2018 congressional elections

Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

Survey Analyses of The Specific Impacting Factors in Devising a Machine Learning Prediction model for The General Election Process in Kosovo

The focus of the research study was analyses of impacting factors and later to incorporate those insights into variables to be measured for devising a machine learning predictive model for prognosis and prediction of the general election turnout in Kosovo. We have developed a novel method for recognizing the main impacting factors in elections

The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments

Significant theories of democratic accountability hinge on how political campaigns affect Americans' candidate choices. We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans' candidates choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic meta-analysis of 40 field experiments estimates an average effect of zero in general elections. Second, we present nine original field experiments that increase the statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive effects of personal contact tenfold. These experiments' average effect is also zero. In both existing and our original experiments, persuasive effects only appear to emerge in two rare circumstances. First, when candidates take unusually unpopular positions and campaigns invest unusually heavily in identifying persuadable voters. Second, when campaigns contact voters long before election day and measure effects immediately-although this early persuasion decays. These findings contribute to ongoing debates about how political elites influence citizens' judgments

Assessing the Impacting Factors in Prediction of Parliamentary Elections Turnout Using Heuristics and Devising MIP Algorithmic Model

The research focus is on identifying and assessing the impacting factors to be measured in order to realize prediction of parliamentary elections outcome using the (MIP) algorithmic model. We have developed a novel method for recognizing the main impacting factors in elections using the (MIP) algorithmic model. We have firstly used adaptive heuristics. In order to devise and asses the impacting factors we have devised most-important-problem (MIP) algorithmic model to predict the outcome of Kosovo parliamentary elections and grounded it on the TTB (take-the-best) strategy. An analysis of forecasting approach to elections and the performance metrics (variance) using the (MIP) algorithmic model has been used. provided are all the main variables we have measured. We have provided posterior binomial proportion. This method is very popular when modelling geopolitical situations with complex dynamics in the system. The data has derived from an originally collected survey dataset that contains the impacting factors previously identified and assessed regarding the parliamentary elections in Kosovo has been realized

Do campaigns matter (in new democracies)? Campaign interest, vote choice, and survey satisficing

[EN] Based on data from presidential campaigns and original data from gubernatorial campaigns in Mexico, this paper finds that the proportion of respondents who provide consistent answers to the vote intention questions during the same survey interview increases as the campaign unfolds and interest in the campaign grows. These voters are less likely to connect their vote choice with their political predispositions and have a disproportionate likelihood to change their vote choice throughout the campaign. This gives the impression that campaigns are more consequential than they are, when, in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters’ increased motivation to engage in a survey interview

Missing Nonvoters and Misweighted Samples:Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss

Preelection polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. Analyzing evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study (BES) data, we find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among “don’t knows,” or differential turnout of parties’ supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probability sample and BES Internet panel, we show that the online survey’s polling error is primarily caused by undersampling nonvoters, then weighting respondents to represent the general population. Consequently, demographic groups with a low probability of voting are overweighted within the voter subsample. Finally, we show that this mechanism is likely partially responsible for the polls overestimating the Liberal Democrats in 2010, illustrating that this is a long-standing problem

Evolutionary Psychology and Artificial Intelligence:The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Human Behaviour

Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a new landscape for humanity. Both what we can do, and the impact of our ordinary actions is changed by the innovation of digital and intelligent technology. In this chapter we postulate how AI impacts contemporary societies on an individual and collective level. We begin by teasing apart the current actual impact of AI on society from the impact that our cultural narratives surrounding AI has. We then consider the evolutionary mechanisms that maintain a stable society such as heterogeneity, flexibility and cooperation. Taking AI as a prosthetic intelligence, we discuss how—for better and worse—it enhances our connectivity, coordination, equality, distribution of control and our ability to make predictions. We further give examples of how transparency of thoughts and behaviours influence call-out culture and behavioural manipulation with consideration of group dynamics and tribalism. We next consider the efficacy and vulnerability of human trust, including the contexts in which blind trust in information is either adaptive or maladaptive in an age where the cost of information is decreasing. We then discuss trust in AI, and how we can calibrate trust as to avoid over-trust and mistrust adaptively, using transparency as a mechanism. We then explore the barriers for AI increasing accuracy in our perception by focusing on fake news. Finally, we look at the impact of information accuracy, and the battles of individuals against false beliefs. Where available, we use models drawn from scientific simulations to justify and clarify our predictions and analysis