Development of Interactive Support Systems for Multiobjective Decision Analysis under Uncertainty

This paper presents interactive multiobjective decision analysis support systems, called MIDASS, which is a newly developed interactive computer program for strategic use of expected utility theory. Decision analysis based on expected utility hypothesis is an established prescriptive approach for supporting business decisions under uncertainty, which embodies an effective procedure for seeking the best choice among alternatives. It is usually difficult, however, for the decision maker (DM) to apply it for the strategic use in the realistic business situations. MIDASS provides an integrated interactive computer system for supporting multiobjective decision analysis under uncertainty, which assists to derive an acceptable business solution for DM with the construction of his/her expected multiattribute utility fuction (EMUF).expected multiobjective decision analysis, MIDASS, expected multiattribute utility function (EMUF), intelligent decision support systems (IDSS).

Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study

Decision-theoretic control of EUVE telescope scheduling

This paper describes a decision theoretic scheduler (DTS) designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of the features of a given problem. The Bayesian Problem-Solver (BPS) introduced a similar approach to solving single agent and adversarial graph search patterns yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems

An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most

Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country

A MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE IN THE CALIFORNIA WILD RICE INDUSTRY

Technological choice and competitive strategy issues are reviewed and then a framework for choosing between two competing technologies is proposed.The two competing technologies differ in their ability to store and process wild rice over a marketing year. The traditional technologies requires almost immediate processing of the harvested wild rice while the experimental technology allows harvested wild rice to be stored and processed over the course of the marketing year. Technological choice is explored using multiattribute utility analysis and two economic evaluations. The economic evaluations are payback period analysis and internal rate of return analysis given uncertain demand conditions. The experimental technology is shown to be the dominant technological choice under both multiattribute utility analysis and the economic analyses.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Structuring the decision process : an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process

This chapter examines the effectiveness of methods that are designed to provide structure and support to decision making. Those that are primarily aimed at individual decision makers are examined first and then attention is turned to groups. In each case weaknesses of unaided decision making are identified and how successful the application of formal methods is likely to be in mitigating these weaknesses is assessed

Identification of Public Objectives Related to Agricultural Sector Support

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a widely debated policy in terms of both its budget and its instruments. In order to serve the citizens of Europe properly, CAP requires optimal identification of the public objectives desired. This paper aims to analyse the relative weights that citizens assign to the various potential objectives of the CAP and to show how these can be used to improve the selection of policy instruments. As a means of identifying social preferences we used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique on a population sample in Castilla y León (Spain). Results show how the current policy decision process lacks mechanisms capable of identifying social preferences and thus leading to the choice of sub-optimal policies.Common Agricultural Policy, Objectives, Social preferences, AHP, Castilla y León.