A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity

In this paper,we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson's (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is applied to the Colombian economy and the resulting index leads six months the Melo et al. (2002) coincident index (in semi-annual growt rates). As an intermediate result, we also develop an updating process of the coincident index.Coincident indexes, leading indexes, state space models.

Salaries of Members of Congress: Congressional Votes, 1990-2014

The automatic annual adjustment for Members of Congress is determined by a formula using a component of the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures rate of change in private sector pay. The adjustment automatically takes effect unless (1) Congress statutorily prohibits the adjustment; (2) Congress statutorily revises the adjustment; or (3) the annual base pay adjustment of General Schedule (GS) federal employees is established at a rate less than the scheduled increase for Members, in which case the percentage adjustment for Member pay is automatically lowered to match the percentage adjustment in GS base pay. In the past, Member pay has been frozen statutorily in two ways: (1) directly, through legislation that freezes salaries for Members but not other federal employees, and (2) indirectly, through broader pay freeze legislation that covers Members and other specified categories of federal employees. Under the formula, Members may not receive an annual pay adjustment greater than 5%. This adjustment formula was established by the Ethics Reform Act of 1989. Votes on the annual adjustments since the implementation of this act are contained in this report

Documentary Editing--Cumulative Index, Twenty-Fifth Anniversary 1979-2003

The following cumulative index (Documentary Editing 25:4 [Winter 2003]) reflects theories and practices that have changed in the past couple of decades as represented in the annual indexes of the journal (1979-2003) and also the 10th anniversary cumulative index in the December issue of 1989. Major inconsistencies and omissions have been corrected in the current version; differences in indexing decisions remain

‘History of the Official Currency and the Central Bank of Cyprus’ Preliminary Conclusions for the Period 1960-2007

The period 1960 to 2007 – when the Cyprus pound was legal tender – is examined with a view to relating the major turning points of exchange, fiscal and monetary policies to their likely causes and consequences. Assumptions are made and conclusions are drawn regarding: the four periods of exchange rate policy (1960-1972, 1972-1992, 1992-1999, 1999-2007); the three phases of bank claims on the government sector (1960-1966, 1966-1975, 1975-2007); the five swings of bank credit to the private sector (1960-1965, 1965-1975, 1975-1984, 1984-2007); the five oscillations of the banking system’s foreign assets (1960-1971, 1971-1980, 1980-1989, 1989-1998, 1998-2007); the parallel tracks of GDP, CPI and the average annual salary during the 47 years under review. The above methodology is applied to the analysis and synthesis of the monetary and credit history of Cyprus between 1878 and 2007.Economic history, business cycle, exchange rate, fiscal policy, private credit, price index, wage adjustment

Evidence of Crowding on Russell 3000 Reconstitution Events

We develop a methodology which replicates in great accuracy the FTSE Russell indexes reconstitutions, including the quarterly rebalancings due to new initial public offerings (IPOs). While using only data available in the CRSP US Stock database for our index reconstruction, we demonstrate the accuracy of this methodology by comparing it to the original Russell US indexes for the time period between 1989 to 2019. A python package that generates the replicated indexes is also provided. As an application, we use our index reconstruction protocol to compute the permanent and temporary price impact on the Russell 3000 annual additions and deletions, and on the quarterly additions of new IPOs . We find that the index portfolios following the Russell 3000 index and rebalanced on an annual basis are overall more crowded than those following the index on a quarterly basis. This phenomenon implies that transaction costs of indexing strategies could be significantly reduced by buying new IPOs additions in proximity to quarterly rebalance dates.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figure

Impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on Visceral Leishmaniasis, Brazil

We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985–1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year’s mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil

On the relationship between sunspots number and the flare index

During the years 1976-1991, sunspot number and the Kleczek flare index have displayed a strong linear correlation (r = 0.94), one that can be described by the equation y = -0.15 + 0.10 x, where x denotes annual sunspot number. While true, the temporal behaviors of the two parameters have differed, with sunspot number peaking first in 1979 and the flare index peaking much later in 1982 during cycle 21 and with more contemporaneous behavior in cycle 22 (both peaking in 1989, with a secondary peak in 1991). The difference appears to be directly attributable to the way in which the Kleczek flare index has been defined; namely, the annual flare index is the sum of the product of each flare's intensity (importance) times its duration (in minutes) divided by the total number of flares during the year. Because the number of 'major' flares (those of importance greater than or equal to 2) and flares of very long duration (duration greater than or equal to 100 min) both peaked after sunspot maximum (1982/81, respectively) in cycle 21, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did). Likewise, because the number of major flares and flares of very long duration peaked simultaneously with sunspot number (1989) in cycle 22, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did)

Estimates of real economic activity in Switzerland, 1886-1930

This paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable variables approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1989, 1991). The resulting index is similar to that constructed by Andrist et al. (2000) but displays more variation over time and is available for a longer time period. Moreover, it is less volatile and covers a longer time period in the 20th century than the estimate by Ritzmann-Blickenstorfer (1996

The causality analysis of relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey

Türkiye ekonomisi için büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü tespit etmeyi amaçlayan bu çalışmada 1989-2011 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak Toda-Yamamoto testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca, temel bileşenler analizi yöntemi ile Türkiye ekonomisinin özgün koşullarını yansıtan ve finansal gelişmişlik düzeyini en kapsamlı biçiminde ölçmeyi mümkün kılacak bir finansal gelişme endeksi oluşturulmuştur. Ampirik bulgular, ‘89 sonrası dönemde ağırlıklı olarak ‘büyüme’den ‘finansal gelişme’ye doğru işleyen tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bir başka ifadeyle finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında ‘talep takipli’ bir nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusudur.In this study Toda-Yamamoto test was applied by using annual data between 1989-2011 to determine the direction of causality relationship between growth and financial development for the Turkish economy. Also, by principal components analysis a financial development index which reflects original conditions of Turkish economy and makes it possible to measure financial development level widely was constituted. Empirical evidence has shown that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth to financial development in the period after 1989. In other words, there is a causal relationship called 'demand following' between financial development and economic growth