Effects of the managerial capacity of managers on the financial condition of large Brazilian municipalities

Este estudo teve como objetivo verificar a influência da capacidade gerencial dos gestores na condição financeira dos grandes municípios brasileiros. Baseado no corpo teórico, foram elaboradas hipóteses de que a escolaridade e a experiência dos prefeitos, a escolaridade dos diretores de administração e finanças, e a escolaridade dos servidores públicos podem influenciar positivamente a condição financeira dos governos locais sob o aspecto orçamentário e de caixa. O estudo abrangeu os 100 maiores municípios brasileiros em termos de PIB, no período de 2009 a 2019. Para testar as hipóteses propostas utilizou-se a técnica de regressão por mínimos quadrados generalizados (GLS). Os resultados revelaram que a capacidade gerencial dos gestores e colaboradores exerce influência positiva na condição financeira dos grandes municípios brasileiros sob o aspecto da solvência de caixa, mas não é importante para influenciar a solvência orçamentária. Os resultados da pesquisa são corroborados com os pressupostos da teoria do capital humano, servindo como instrumentos de apoio à gestão das finanças públicas.This study aimed to examine the influence of managers’ managerial capacity on the financial condition of large Brazilian municipalities. Based on the theoretical framework, it was hypothesized that the education level and experience of mayors, the education level of administration and finance directors, and the education level of public servants can positively influence the financial condition of local governments from the perspective of budget and cash solvency. The study covered the 100 largest Brazilian municipalities in terms of GDP, in the 2009-1019 period. To test the proposed hypotheses, the generalized least squares (GLS) regression technique was used. Results revealed that the managerial capacity of managers and employees has a positive influence on the financial condition of large Brazilian municipalities with regard to cash solvency, but it is not relevant for influencing budgetary solvency. The study’s results corroborate the assumptions of the human capital theory, serving as tools to support public finance management

Fatores determinantes dos erros de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais no Brasil

The objective of this study is to investigate determinant factors the forecast errors of market analysts for Brazilian fiscal variables. The data for conducting the research was obtained in the Prisma Fiscal, the Ministry of Economy's system of collecting and disclosure of market expectations for fiscal variables. The data collected refer to collection, net revenue and total expenditure, in the period from November 2015 to December 2018. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and z were used to measure the quality of the market analysts' forecast. The use of the z value as a measure of the forecast error is one of the contributions of this research. Among the results obtained, the hypothesis that the temporal horizon interferes in the quality of the forecast was not rejected for horizons of one and two years; the dispersion of forecasts did not show a substantial change; and the optimistic bias hypothesis was not confirmed. It can be concluded that for this sample the temporality is a determinant factor of the forecast error of the market analysts for fiscal variables. The research contributes to the discussion about forecasting error in the areas of Public Financial Management and Public Accounting.O objetivo deste estudo é investigar fatores determinantes dos erros de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais brasileiras. Os dados para realização da pesquisa foram obtidos no Prisma Fiscal, o sistema do Ministério da Economia de coleta e divulgação de expectativas do mercado para variáveis fiscais. Os dados coletados se referem à arrecadação, receita líquida e despesa total, no período de novembro de 2015 a dezembro de 2018.  O Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) e z foram utilizados para medir a qualidade da previsão dos analistas de mercado. A utilização do valor z como uma medida do erro de previsão é uma das contribuições desta pesquisa. Entre os resultados obtidos, destacam-se: a hipótese de que o horizonte temporal interfere na qualidade da previsão não foi rejeitada para horizontes de um e dois anos; a dispersão das previsões não apresentou alteração substancial; e a hipótese de viés otimista não foi confirmada. Pode-se concluir que, para essa amostra, a temporalidade é um fator determinante do erro de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais. A pesquisa contribui com a discussão sobre erro de previsão nas áreas de Gestão Financeira Pública e Contabilidade Pública

Fiscal Shocks, Budgetary Pressures, and Public Education Expenditure Stabilization

Fiscal shocks exert budgetary pressures on school districts and constrain their ability to provide public education. An emerging literature examines the role of fiscal reserves to mitigate expenditure cuts in school districts. In the U.S. context, this article provides evidence that Kentucky school districts from school years 2001–2002 to 2013–2014 drained fiscal reserves and cut expenditures in response to revenue decreases. Further, school districts drained fiscal reserves to stabilize non-instructional expenditures, which have fixed costs. Collectively, the findings presented in this article build evidence that school districts strategically respond to budgetary pressures

Efeitos da capacidade gerencial dos gestores sobre a condição financeira dos grandes municípios brasileiros

Este estudo teve como objetivo verificar a influência da capacidade gerencial dos gestores na condição financeira dos grandes municípios brasileiros. Baseado no corpo teórico, foram elaboradas hipóteses de que a escolaridade e a experiência dos prefeitos, a escolaridade dos diretores de administração e finanças, e a escolaridade dos servidores públicos podem influenciar positivamente a condição financeira dos governos locais sob o aspecto orçamentário e de caixa. O estudo abrangeu os 100 maiores municípios brasileiros em termos de PIB, no período de 2009 a 2019. Para testar as hipóteses propostas utilizou-se a técnica de regressão por mínimos quadrados generalizados (GLS). Os resultados revelaram que a capacidade gerencial dos gestores e colaboradores exerce influência positiva na condição financeira dos grandes municípios brasileiros sob o aspecto da solvência de caixa, mas não é importante para influenciar a solvência orçamentária. Os resultados da pesquisa são corroborados com os pressupostos da teoria do capital humano, servindo como instrumentos de apoio à gestão das finanças públicas

Forecasting TSPLOST Revenues in Georgia

PI# 0018101Due to the long-term planning involved in the design and construction of transportation infrastructure projects, transportation planners need reliable long-run forecasts and stable sources of revenue over the project timeline. Funding streams typically vary from period to period due to inherent volatility in the funding source or unforeseen events, or both. Additional understanding of the economy and improved forecasting techniques can reduce some of the uncertainty of volatile revenue sources. While improved forecasting techniques are not capable of anticipating unexpected events, such as a hurricane or wildfire, budget strategies do exist that can mitigate volatility in revenues arising from unforeseen events. These strategies include the use of rainy day funds and revenue diversification, among others. This research focuses on three areas of improvement: (1) documenting the economic and demographic factors that influence sales tax collections; (2) reviewing the available forecasting models and determining which types best suit the [Transportation Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax] TSPLOST regions of Central Savannah, River Valley, Heart of Georgia, and Southern Georgia; and (3) analyzing best practices in budgeting for transportation sales taxes using a case study approach

Essays in Econometrics

This dissertation consists of three chapters and is inspired by current economic issues affecting the majority (if not all) of economic agents, such as recession tracking, matching algorithms and, economic inequality. In the first chapter, I measure the uncertainty affecting estimates of economic inequality in the US and investigate how accounting for properly estimated standard errors can affect the results of empirical and structural macroeconomic studies. While focusing on income and wealth shares within the top 10 percent, my results suggest that ignoring uncertainties in estimated shares can lead to statistically imprecise conclusions about the past and current levels of top income and wealth inequality, and therefore, lead to inaccurate predictions and potentially ineffective policy recommendations. In the second chapter, Professor Jean-Francois Richard and I propose a hybrid version of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models with emphasis on parameter invariance and tracking performance at times of rapid changes (recessions). Our methodology is illustrated by an application to a pilot Real Business Cycle model for the US economy from 1948 to 2019, where we highlight the model’s parameters invariance, tracking, and 1- to 3-step ahead forecasting performance, outperforming those of an unconstrained benchmark Vector AutoRegressive model. In the third and final chapter, Professor Alistair J. Wilson and I analyze an existing matching procedure designed to solve a complex constrained assignment problem for one of the most successful pan-European ventures: the UEFA Champions League. Relying upon a combination of theory, structural estimation, and simulation, we outline a quantitative methodology aimed at assessing a highly transparent (but combinatorically complex) tournament’s assignment procedure and provide evidence that the UEFA assignment rule is effectively a "constrained-best" in terms of pairwise independence