Response Functions to Critical Shocks in Social Sciences: An Empirical and Numerical Study

We show that, provided one focuses on properly selected episodes, one can apply to the social sciences the same observational strategy that has proved successful in natural sciences such as astrophysics or geodynamics. For instance, in order to probe the cohesion of a policy, one can, in different countries, study the reactions to some huge and sudden exogenous shocks, which we call Dirac shocks. This approach naturally leads to the notion of structural (as opposed or complementary to temporal) forecast. Although structural predictions are by far the most common way to test theories in the natural sciences, they have been much less used in the social sciences. The Dirac shock approach opens the way to testing structural predictions in the social sciences. The examples reported here suggest that critical events are able to reveal pre-existing ``cracks'' because they probe the social cohesion which is an indicator and predictor of future evolution of the system, and in some cases foreshadows a bifurcation. We complement our empirical work with numerical simulations of the response function (``damage spreading'') to Dirac shocks in the Sznajd model of consensus build-up. We quantify the slow relaxation of the difference between perturbed and unperturbed systems, the conditions under which the consensus is modified by the shock and the large variability from one realization to another

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Teaching and learning special relativity theory in secondary and lower undergraduate education: A literature review

This review presents an overview and analysis of the body of research on special relativity theory (SRT) education at the secondary and lower undergraduate level. There is currently a growing international interest in implementing SRT in pre-university education as an introduction to modern physics. For this reason, insights into learning opportunities and challenges in SRT education are needed. The field of research in SRT education is still at an early stage, especially at the level of secondary education, and there is a shortage of empirical evaluation of learning outcomes. In order to guide future research directions, there is a need for an overview and synthesis of the results reported so far. We have selected 40 articles and categorized them according to reported learning difficulties, teaching approaches, and research tools. Analysis shows that students at all educational levels experience learning difficulties with the use of frames of reference, the postulates of SRT, and relativistic effects. In the reported teaching sequences, instructional materials, and learning activities, these difficulties are approached from different angles. Some teaching approaches focus on thought experiments to express conceptual features of SRT, while others use virtual environments to provide realistic visualization of relativistic effects. From the reported teaching approaches, three learning objectives can be identified: to foster conceptual understanding, to foster understanding of the history and philosophy of science, and to gain motivation and confidence toward SRT and physics in general. In order to quantitatively compare learning outcomes of different teaching strategies, a more thorough evaluation of assessment tools is required

One, no one and one hundred thousand events: Defining and processing events in an inter-disciplinary perspective

We present an overview of event definition and processing spanning 25 years of research in NLP. We first provide linguistic background to the notion of event, and then present past attempts to formalize this concept in annotation standards to foster the development of benchmarks for event extraction systems. This ranges from MUC-3 in 1991 to the Time and Space Track challenge at SemEval 2015. Besides, we shed light on other disciplines in which the notion of event plays a crucial role, with a focus on the historical domain. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive study on event definitions and investigate which potential past efforts in the NLP community may have in a different research domain. We present the results of a questionnaire, where the notion of event for historians is put in relation to the NLP perspective

The influence of gender and cultural values on savoring in Korean undergraduates

The present study investigated antecedents of savoring beliefs and responses in a sample of South Korean college students. Historically, Korea has been strongly influenced by Chinese Confucianism, which emphasizes not only gender-role differentiation and patriarchal norms, but also the dampening of emotions as a culturally appropriate style of positive emotional regulation. We hypothesized that Korean females, relative to males, would reject traditional Asian cultural values in order to gain more empowerment, and would, as a result, report a greater capacity to savor positive experience. Confirming the hypotheses, Korean women, compared to men, reported stronger disagreement with traditional Asian values, greater overall savoring ability, greater capacity for cognitive elaboration, and less use of dampening and greater use of amplifying as savoring responses to positive events. Path analyses supported our hypothesized mediational model in which Korean women, relative to men, more strongly rejected traditional Asian values, which predicted less dampening (but only marginally greater amplifying). We conclude that among young Korean adults: (a) savoring is a relevant concept; (b) traditional Asian values tend to promote dampening of positive emotions; and (c) women more strongly reject traditional cultural values, tend to engage in less dampening and greater amplifying, and perceive greater savoring capacity, relative to men

Past-as-Past in counterfactual desire reports: a view from Japanese

The semantic contribution of Fake Past in counterfactual expressions has been actively debated in recent semantic literature. This study deepens our current understanding of this natural language phenomenon by digging into the behavior of Past tense in Japanese counterfactual desire reports. We show that  the Past-as-Past approach to Fake Past makes correct predictions about its semantic behavior

약물 감시를 위한 비정형 텍스트 내 임상 정보 추출 연구

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 융합과학기술대학원 응용바이오공학과, 2023. 2. 이형기.Pharmacovigilance is a scientific activity to detect, evaluate and understand the occurrence of adverse drug events or other problems related to drug safety. However, concerns have been raised over the quality of drug safety information for pharmacovigilance, and there is also a need to secure a new data source to acquire drug safety information. On the other hand, the rise of pre-trained language models based on a transformer architecture has accelerated the application of natural language processing (NLP) techniques in diverse domains. In this context, I tried to define two problems in pharmacovigilance as an NLP task and provide baseline models for the defined tasks: 1) extracting comprehensive drug safety information from adverse drug events narratives reported through a spontaneous reporting system (SRS) and 2) extracting drug-food interaction information from abstracts of biomedical articles. I developed annotation guidelines and performed manual annotation, demonstrating that strong NLP models can be trained to extracted clinical information from unstructrued free-texts by fine-tuning transformer-based language models on a high-quality annotated corpus. Finally, I discuss issues to consider when when developing annotation guidelines for extracting clinical information related to pharmacovigilance. The annotated corpora and the NLP models in this dissertation can streamline pharmacovigilance activities by enhancing the data quality of reported drug safety information and expanding the data sources.약물 감시는 약물 부작용 또는 약물 안전성과 관련된 문제의 발생을 감지, 평가 및 이해하기 위한 과학적 활동이다. 그러나 약물 감시에 사용되는 의약품 안전성 정보의 보고 품질에 대한 우려가 꾸준히 제기되었으며, 해당 보고 품질을 높이기 위해서는 안전성 정보를 확보할 새로운 자료원이 필요하다. 한편 트랜스포머 아키텍처를 기반으로 사전훈련 언어모델이 등장하면서 다양한 도메인에서 자연어처리 기술 적용이 가속화되었다. 이러한 맥락에서 본 학위 논문에서는 약물 감시를 위한 다음 2가지 정보 추출 문제를 자연어처리 문제 형태로 정의하고 관련 기준 모델을 개발하였다: 1) 수동적 약물 감시 체계에 보고된 이상사례 서술자료에서 포괄적인 약물 안전성 정보를 추출한다. 2) 영문 의약학 논문 초록에서 약물-식품 상호작용 정보를 추출한다. 이를 위해 안전성 정보 추출을 위한 어노테이션 가이드라인을 개발하고 수작업으로 어노테이션을 수행하였다. 결과적으로 고품질의 자연어 학습데이터를 기반으로 사전학습 언어모델을 미세 조정함으로써 비정형 텍스트에서 임상 정보를 추출하는 강력한 자연어처리 모델 개발이 가능함을 확인하였다. 마지막으로 본 학위 논문에서는 약물감시와 관련된임상 정보 추출을 위한 어노테이션 가이드라인을 개발할 때 고려해야 할 주의 사항에 대해 논의하였다. 본 학위 논문에서 소개한 자연어 학습데이터와 자연어처리 모델은 약물 안전성 정보의 보고 품질을 향상시키고 자료원을 확장하여 약물 감시 활동을 보조할 것으로 기대된다.Chapter 1 1 1.1 Contributions of this dissertation 2 1.2 Overview of this dissertation 2 1.3 Other works 3 Chapter 2 4 2.1 Pharmacovigilance 4 2.2 Biomedical NLP for pharmacovigilance 6 2.2.1 Pre-trained language models 6 2.2.2 Corpora to extract clinical information for pharmacovigilance 9 Chapter 3 11 3.1 Motivation 12 3.2 Proposed Methods 14 3.2.1 Data source and text corpus 15 3.2.2 Annotation of ADE narratives 16 3.2.3 Quality control of annotation 17 3.2.4 Pretraining KAERS-BERT 18 3.2.6 Named entity recognition 20 3.2.7 Entity label classification and sentence extraction 21 3.2.8 Relation extraction 21 3.2.9 Model evaluation 22 3.2.10 Ablation experiment 23 3.3 Results 24 3.3.1 Annotated ICSRs 24 3.3.2 Corpus statistics 26 3.3.3 Performance of NLP models to extract drug safety information 28 3.3.4 Ablation experiment 31 3.4 Discussion 33 3.5 Conclusion 38 Chapter 4 39 4.1 Motivation 39 4.2 Proposed Methods 43 4.2.1 Data source 44 4.2.2 Annotation 45 4.2.3 Quality control of annotation 49 4.2.4 Baseline model development 49 4.3 Results 50 4.3.1 Corpus statistics 50 4.3.2 Annotation Quality 54 4.3.3 Performance of baseline models 55 4.3.4 Qualitative error analysis 56 4.4 Discussion 59 4.5 Conclusion 63 Chapter 5 64 5.1 Issues around defining a word entity 64 5.2 Issues around defining a relation between word entities 66 5.3 Issues around defining entity labels 68 5.4 Issues around selecting and preprocessing annotated documents 68 Chapter 6 71 6.1 Dissertation summary 71 6.2 Limitation and future works 72 6.2.1 Development of end-to-end information extraction models from free-texts to database based on existing structured information 72 6.2.2 Application of in-context learning framework in clinical information extraction 74 Chapter 7 76 7.1 Annotation Guideline for "Extraction of Comprehensive Drug Safety Information from Adverse Event Narratives Reported through Spontaneous Reporting System" 76 7.2 Annotation Guideline for "Extraction of Drug-Food Interactions from the Abtracts of Biomedical Articles" 100박

Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.Comment: NeurIPS 2022; our dataset is available at https://github.com/andyzoujm/autocas