Techno-Economic Analysis of 5G Deployment Scenarios involving Massive MIMO HetNets over mmWave: A Case Study on the US State of Texas

The fifth generation (5G) of mobile services envisages network heterogeneity, cell densification, and high spectral efficiency using Massive MIMO, operating at millimeter-wave frequencies. Accurately assessing the potential of financial returns for such a complex network poses to operators unique challenges including techno-economic analysis leading to the identification of decision variables most sensitive to the profitability parameters. Attempting to demystify their concerns, we evaluate the profitability potential for realistic 5G deployment scenarios over 28 GHz frequency in the State of Texas. Interestingly, we discover that the total cost of ownership for 5G network is about one-third of that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) deployment, yielding estimated returns amounting to $482.14 million for the period 2020-2030. The sensitivity analyses predict profitability in 70% of the cases of 5G, against LTE-A. For operators, the crucial levers having the maximum impact on profitability are decisions pertaining to the spectrum acquisition and the pricing of services

Techno-economic analysis of a 5G network in Spain

Information society and mobile society are two concepts that are both linked and undeniable. The first one refers to the necessity of high amount of information to develop most aspects of our lives, while the second one is related to the importance of mobile devices to get, analyse and use that information. In other words, every mobile device (that embraces not only mobile phones but also many other gadgets) has become a tool that shall interact with information. In order to fulfil those needs, technology has evolved, resulting into faster, more secure and more reliable networks. Needless to say, mobile networks are playing an indispensable role, as long as the society is evolving to a more and more mobile one, as above mentioned. Furthermore, new applications that had not been even imagined years ago must be fulfilled as well (i.e. smart cities). There are many industries that carry the weight of this progress. Companies of various sectors of our economy must develop each piece of the puzzle to ensure that the jigsaw is solved. Another important player should not be forgotten. The regulatory institutions and frameworks must coordinate all this investigations and progress in order to assure the universality, integrity and reachability of itself. The purpose of this document is to consider what the mobile communications needs of today’s society are, what they will be on a short, mid and long run, and how can they be solved. To face this task, the two main actors above mentioned will be taken into account. From the regulatory perspective, the proposals and law measures (i.e. IMT-2020 and new frequency allocations) must be considered, as well as the technical requirements for 5G generation, whether to be considered the subsequent evolution of LTE network or a new network, or even both. From the mobile companies’ point of view, a dense analysis on technical solutions to reach the above mentioned requirements will be followed by an economic analysis to discuss the profitability of the deployment of a 5G network. It must be understood that this study contemplates several scenarios, due to the different possibilities in terms of the spectrum policies and demand evolution in the forthcoming years. To this end, the several scenarios combined with the different cases of use must be taken into account, as well as many other KPIs. The coherent combination and analysis of all this parameters will reveal the requirements’ feasibility amongst varying scenarios.Ingeniería en Tecnologías de Telecomunicació

Design and Service Provisioning Methods for Optical Networks in 5G and Beyond Scenarios

Network operators are deploying 5G while also considering the evolution towards 6G. They consider different enablers and address various challenges. One trend in the 5G deployment is network densification, i.e., deploying many small cell sites close to the users, which need a well-designed transport network (TN). The choice of the TN technology and the location for processing the 5G protocol stack functions are critical to contain capital and operational expenditures. Furthermore, it is crucial to ensure the resiliency of the TN infrastructure in case of a failure in nodes and/or links while the resource efficiency is maximized.Operators are also interested in 5G networks with flexibility and scalability features. In this context, one main question is where to deploy network functions so that the connectivity and compute resources are utilized efficiently while meeting strict service latency and availability requirements. Off-loading compute resources to large and central data centers (DCs) has some advantages, i.e., better utilization of compute resources at a lower cost. A backup path can be added to address service availability requirements when using compute off-loading strategies. This might impact the service blocking ratio and limit operators’ profit. The importance of this trade-off becomes more critical with the emergence of new 6G verticals.This thesis proposes novel methods to address the issues outlined above. To address the challenge of cost-efficient TN deployment, the thesis introduces a framework to study the total cost of ownership (TCO), latency, and reliability performance of a set of TN architectures for high-layer and low-layer functional split options. The architectural options are fiber- or microwave-based. To address the strict availability requirement, the thesis proposes a resource-efficient protection strategy against single node/link failure of the midhaul segment. The method selects primary and backup DCs for each aggregation node (i.e., nodes to which cell sites are connected) while maximizing the sharing of backup resources. Finally, to address the challenge of resource efficiency while provisioning services, the thesis proposes a backup-enhanced compute off-loading strategy (i.e., resource-efficient provisioning (REP)). REP selects a DC, a connectivity path, and (optionally) a backup path for each service request with the aim of minimizing resource usage while the service latency and availability requirements are met.Our results of the techno-economic assessment of the TN options reveal that, in some cases, microwave can be a good substitute for fiber technology. Several factors, including the geo-type, functional split option, and the cost of fiber trenching and microwave equipment, influence the effectiveness of the microwave. The considered architectures show similar latency and reliability performance and meet the 5G service requirements. The thesis also shows that a protection strategy based on shared connectivity and compute resources can lead to significant cost savings compared to benchmarks based on dedicated backup resources. Finally, the thesis shows that the proposed backup-enhanced compute off-loading strategy offers advantages in service blocking ratio and profit gain compared to a conventional off-loading approach that does not add a backup path. Benefits are even more evident considering next-generation services, e.g., expected on the market in 3 to 5 years, as the demand for services with stringent latency and availability will increase

5G network deployment and the associated energy consumption in the UK: A complex systems’ exploration

Investing in the communication infrastructure transition requires significant scientific consideration of challenges, prioritisation, risks and uncertainties. To address these challenges, a bottom-up approach was used to demonstrate the future of wireless network transmission and deployment. This study developed an agent-based model to explore the future deployment of non-standalone 5G networks, synthesizing multi-dimensional data visualization. In particular, this research took the UK as an example to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of 5G evolution, and further analysed the energy consumption and carbon footprint of 5G networks, as well as the consequent change in the operating expenses pattern. The simulation results show that 700 MHz and 26 GHz will play an important role in 5G deployment in the UK, which allow base stations to meet short-term and long-term data traffic demands respectively. Furthermore, due to the geopolitical restrictions and embargos, telecommunications may face additional costs of £0.63bn to £1.19bn when deploying 5G radio access networks. Network densification may cause some environmental and economic problems. Take a medium demand scenario as an example, it is found that the electricity consumed by the 5G radio access network will account for more than 2.1% of the total electricity generation, and indirectly lead to 990,404 tonnes carbon emissions in 2030

5G network slicing for rural connectivity: multi-tenancy in wireless networks

As the need for wireless broadband continues to grow around the world, there is an increasing focus to minimise the existing digital divide and ensuring that everyone receives high-quality internet services, especially the inhabitants of rural areas. As a result, different technological solutions are being studied and trialled for improving rural connectivity, such as 5G with dynamic spectrum access. One of the architectures of 5G is network slicing, which supports network virtualisation and consists of independent logical networks, called slices, on the 5G network. Network slicing supports the multi-tenancy of different operators on the same physical network, and this feature is known as neutral host networks (NHN). It allows multiple operators to co-exist on the same physical network but on different virtual networks to serve end users. Generally, the 5G NHN deployment is handled by an infrastructure provider (InP), who could be a mobile network operator (MNO), an Internet service provider, a third-party operator, etc. At the same time, potential tenants would lease slices from the InP. The NHN strategy would help reduce resource duplication and increase the utilisation of existing resources. The existing research into NHN for small cells, in-building connectivity solutions, and other deployment scenarios help to understand the technological and business requirements. End-to-end sharing across operators to provide services to their end users is another innovative application of 5G NHN that has been tested for dense areas. Meanwhile, the feasibility and policy impact of NHN is not studied extensively for the rural scenario. The research in this thesis examines the use of NHN in macro- and small-cell networks for 5G communication systems to minimise the digital divide, with a special focus on rural areas. The study also presents and analyses the 5G multi-tenancy system design for the rural wireless scenario, focusing mainly on exploring suitable business cases through network economics, techno-economic study, and game theory analysis. The results obtained from the study, such as cost analysis, business models, sensitivity analysis, and pricing strategies, help in formulating the policy on infrastructure sharing to improve rural connectivity. The contributions of the thesis are useful for stakeholders and policymakers to assess the suitability of the rural 5G NHN by exploring state-of-the-art technologies, techno-economic analysis, sensitivity analysis, newer business models, investment assessment, cost allocation, and risk sharing. Initially, the research gap is highlighted through the extensive literature review and stakeholders’ views on rural connectivity collected from discussions with them. First, the in-depth discussion on the network economics of the rural 5G NHN includes the study of potential future scenarios, value network configurations, spectrum access strategy models, and business models. Secondly, the techno-economic analysis studies the key performance indicators (KPI), cost analysis, return on investment, net present value, and sensitivity analysis, with the application for the rural parts of the UK and India. Finally, the game theory framework includes the study of strategic interaction among the two key stakeholders, InP and the MNO, using models such as investment games and pricing strategies during multi-tenancy. The research concludes by presenting the contribution towards the knowledge and future work.As the need for wireless broadband continues to grow around the world, there is an increasing focus to minimise the existing digital divide and ensuring that everyone receives high-quality internet services, especially the inhabitants of rural areas. As a result, different technological solutions are being studied and trialled for improving rural connectivity, such as 5G with dynamic spectrum access. One of the architectures of 5G is network slicing, which supports network virtualisation and consists of independent logical networks, called slices, on the 5G network. Network slicing supports the multi-tenancy of different operators on the same physical network, and this feature is known as neutral host networks (NHN). It allows multiple operators to co-exist on the same physical network but on different virtual networks to serve end users. Generally, the 5G NHN deployment is handled by an infrastructure provider (InP), who could be a mobile network operator (MNO), an Internet service provider, a third-party operator, etc. At the same time, potential tenants would lease slices from the InP. The NHN strategy would help reduce resource duplication and increase the utilisation of existing resources. The existing research into NHN for small cells, in-building connectivity solutions, and other deployment scenarios help to understand the technological and business requirements. End-to-end sharing across operators to provide services to their end users is another innovative application of 5G NHN that has been tested for dense areas. Meanwhile, the feasibility and policy impact of NHN is not studied extensively for the rural scenario. The research in this thesis examines the use of NHN in macro- and small-cell networks for 5G communication systems to minimise the digital divide, with a special focus on rural areas. The study also presents and analyses the 5G multi-tenancy system design for the rural wireless scenario, focusing mainly on exploring suitable business cases through network economics, techno-economic study, and game theory analysis. The results obtained from the study, such as cost analysis, business models, sensitivity analysis, and pricing strategies, help in formulating the policy on infrastructure sharing to improve rural connectivity. The contributions of the thesis are useful for stakeholders and policymakers to assess the suitability of the rural 5G NHN by exploring state-of-the-art technologies, techno-economic analysis, sensitivity analysis, newer business models, investment assessment, cost allocation, and risk sharing. Initially, the research gap is highlighted through the extensive literature review and stakeholders’ views on rural connectivity collected from discussions with them. First, the in-depth discussion on the network economics of the rural 5G NHN includes the study of potential future scenarios, value network configurations, spectrum access strategy models, and business models. Secondly, the techno-economic analysis studies the key performance indicators (KPI), cost analysis, return on investment, net present value, and sensitivity analysis, with the application for the rural parts of the UK and India. Finally, the game theory framework includes the study of strategic interaction among the two key stakeholders, InP and the MNO, using models such as investment games and pricing strategies during multi-tenancy. The research concludes by presenting the contribution towards the knowledge and future work

Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.Edward Oughton, Zoraida Frias, Tom Russell and David Cleevely would like to express their gratitude to the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council for funding via grant EP/N017064/1: Multi-scale InfraSTRucture systems AnaLytics (Mistral). Zoraida Frias would like to thank the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid for their support through the mobility program scholarship

Urban wireless traffic evolution: the role of new devices and the effect of policy

The emergence of new wireless technologies, such as the Internet of Things, allows digitalizing new and diverse urban activities. Thus, wireless traffic grows in volume and complexity, making prediction, investment planning, and regulation increasingly difficult. This article characterizes urban wireless traffic evolution, supporting operators to drive mobile network evolution and policymakers to increase national and local competitiveness. We propose a holistic method that widens previous research scope, including new devices and the effect of policy from multiple government levels. We provide an analytical formulation that combines existing complementary methods on traffic evolution research and diverse data sources. Results for a centric area of Helsinki during 2020-2030 indicate that daily volumes increase, albeit a surprisingly large part of the traffic continues to be generated by smartphones. Machine traffic gains importance, driven by surveillance video cameras and connected cars. While camera traffic is sensitive to law enforcement policies and data regulation, car traffic is less affected by transport electrification policy. High-priority traffic remains small, even under encouraging autonomous vehicle policies. We suggest that 5G small cells might be needed around 2025, albeit the utilization of novel radio technology and additional mid-band spectrum could delay this need until 2029. We argue that mobile network operators inevitably need to cooperate in constructing a single, shared small cell network to mitigate the high deployment costs of massively deploying small cells. We also provide guidance to local and national policymakers for IoT-enabled competitive gains via the mitigation of five bottlenecks. For example, local monopolies for mmWave connectivity should be facilitated on space-limited urban furniture or risk an eventual capacity crunch, slowing down digitalization