Parametric Distributionally Robust Optimisation Models for Budgeted Multi-period Newsvendor Problems

In this paper, we consider a static, multi-period newsvendor model under a budget constraint. In the case where the true demand distribution is known, we develop a heuristic algorithm to solve the problem. By comparing this algorithm with off-the-shelf solvers, we show that it generates near-optimal solutions in a short time. We then consider a scenario in which limited information on the demand distribution is available. It is assumed, however, that the true demand distribution lies within some given family of distributions and that samples can be obtained from it. We consider the cases of normal and Poisson demands. For each case, we show that using maximum likelihood estimates in place of the true parameters can lead to poor estimates of the true cost associated with an order quantity. Hence, we make use of likelihood inference to develop confidence sets for the true parameters. These are used as ambiguity sets in a distributionally robust model, where we enforce that the worst-case distribution lies in the same family as the true distribution. We solve these models by discretising the ambiguity set and reformulating them as piecewise linear models. We show that these models quickly become large as the ambiguity set grows, resulting in long computation times. To overcome this, we propose a heuristic cutting surface algorithm that exploits theoretical properties of the objective function to reduce the size of the ambiguity set. We illustrate that our cutting surface algorithm solves orders of magnitude faster than the piecewise linear model, while generating very near-optimal solutions

Distributionally robust views on queues and related stochastic models

This dissertation explores distribution-free methods for stochastic models. Traditional approaches operate on the premise of complete knowledge about the probability distributions of the underlying random variables that govern these models. In contrast, this work adopts a distribution-free perspective, assuming only partial knowledge of these distributions, often limited to generalized moment information. Distributionally robust analysis seeks to determine the worst-case model performance. It involves optimization over a set of probability distributions that comply with this partial information, a task tantamount to solving a semiinfinite linear program. To address such an optimization problem, a solution approach based on the concept of weak duality is used. Through the proposed weak-duality argument, distribution-free bounds are derived for a wide range of stochastic models. Further, these bounds are applied to various distributionally robust stochastic programs and used to analyze extremal queueing models—central themes in applied probability and mathematical optimization

Distributionally robust views on queues and related stochastic models

This dissertation explores distribution-free methods for stochastic models. Traditional approaches operate on the premise of complete knowledge about the probability distributions of the underlying random variables that govern these models. In contrast, this work adopts a distribution-free perspective, assuming only partial knowledge of these distributions, often limited to generalized moment information. Distributionally robust analysis seeks to determine the worst-case model performance. It involves optimization over a set of probability distributions that comply with this partial information, a task tantamount to solving a semiinfinite linear program. To address such an optimization problem, a solution approach based on the concept of weak duality is used. Through the proposed weak-duality argument, distribution-free bounds are derived for a wide range of stochastic models. Further, these bounds are applied to various distributionally robust stochastic programs and used to analyze extremal queueing models—central themes in applied probability and mathematical optimization

Distributionally Robust Optimization: A Review

The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and function regularization

Closed-Form Solutions for Distributionally Robust Inventory Management: Extended Reformulation using Zero-Sum Game

When only the moments (mean, variance or t-th moment) of the underline distribution are known, numerous max-min optimization models can be interpreted as a zero-sum game, in which the decision maker (DM) chooses actions to maximize her expected profit while Adverse Nature chooses a distribution subject to the moments conditions to minimize DM’s expected profit. We propose a new method to efficiently solve this class of zero-sum games under moment conditions. By applying the min-max inequality, our method reformulates the zero-sum game as a robust moral hazard model, in which Adverse Nature chooses both the distribution and actions to minimize DM’s expected profit subject to incentive compatibility (IC) constraints. Under quasi-concavity, these IC constraints are replaced by the first-order conditions, which give rise to extra moment constraints. Interestingly, these extra moment constraints drastically reduce the number of corner points to be considered in the corresponding semi-infinite programming models. We show that in the equilibrium, these moment constraints are binding but have zero Lagrangian multipliers and thus facilitate closed-form solutions in several application examples with different levels of complexity. The high efficiency of the method enables us to solve a large class of zero-sum games and the corresponding max-min robust optimization models

A generalized moment approach to sharp bounds for conditional expectations

In this paper, we address the problem of bounding conditional expectations when moment information of the underlying distribution and the random event conditioned upon are given. To this end, we propose an adapted version of the generalized moment problem which deals with this conditional information through a simple transformation. By exploiting conic duality, we obtain sharp bounds that can be used for distribution-free decision-making under uncertainty. Additionally, we derive computationally tractable mathematical programs for distributionally robust optimization (DRO) with side information by leveraging core ideas from ambiguity-averse uncertainty quantification and robust optimization, establishing a moment-based DRO framework for prescriptive stochastic programming.Comment: 43 pages, 5 figure

Closed-Form Solutions for Distributionally Robust Inventory Management: A Controlled Relaxation Method

When only the moments (mean, variance or t-th moment) of the underline distribution are known, a variety of many max-min optimization models choose actions to maximize the firm’s expected profit against the most unfavorable distribution. We introduce relaxation scalars to reformulate the max-min model as a relaxed model and demonstrate that the closed form solutions (if they exist in the first place) can be quickly identified when we reduce the relaxation scalars to zero. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this new method, we provide closed-form solutions, hitherto unknown, for several distributionally robust inventory models, including the newsvendor problem with mean and t-th moment (for t > 1), the pricing model, the capacity planning model with multiple supply sources, and the two-product inventory system with common component

A New Method to Solve Zero-Sum Games under Moment Conditions

When only the moments (mean, variance or t-th moment) of the underline distribution are known, numerous max-min optimization models can be interpreted as a zero-sum game, in which the decision maker (DM) chooses actions to maximize her expected profit while Adverse Nature chooses a distribution subject to the moments conditions to minimize DM’s expected profit. We propose a new method to efficiently solve this class of zero-sum games under moment conditions. By applying the min-max inequality, our method reformulates the zero-sum game as a robust moral hazard model, in which Adverse Nature chooses both the distribution and actions to minimize DM’s expected profit subject to incentive compatibility (IC) constraints. Under quasi-concavity, these IC constraints are replaced by the first-order conditions, which give rise to extra moment constraints. Interestingly, these extra moment constraints drastically reduce the number of corner points to be considered in the corresponding semi-infinite programming models. We show that in the equilibrium, these moment constraints are binding but have zero Lagrangian multipliers and thus facilitate closed-form solutions in several application examples with different levels of complexity. The high efficiency of the method enables us to solve a large class of zero-sum games and the corresponding max-min robust optimization models