Bayesian variable selection using cost-adjusted BIC, with application to cost-effective measurement of quality of health care

In the field of quality of health care measurement, one approach to assessing patient sickness at admission involves a logistic regression of mortality within 30 days of admission on a fairly large number of sickness indicators (on the order of 100) to construct a sickness scale, employing classical variable selection methods to find an ``optimal'' subset of 10--20 indicators. Such ``benefit-only'' methods ignore the considerable differences among the sickness indicators in cost of data collection, an issue that is crucial when admission sickness is used to drive programs (now implemented or under consideration in several countries, including the U.S. and U.K.) that attempt to identify substandard hospitals by comparing observed and expected mortality rates (given admission sickness). When both data-collection cost and accuracy of prediction of 30-day mortality are considered, a large variable-selection problem arises in which costly variables that do not predict well enough should be omitted from the final scale. In this paper (a) we develop a method for solving this problem based on posterior model odds, arising from a prior distribution that (1) accounts for the cost of each variable and (2) results in a set of posterior model probabilities that corresponds to a generalized cost-adjusted version of the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and (b) we compare this method with a decision-theoretic cost-benefit approach based on maximizing expected utility. We use reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods to search the model space, and we check the stability of our findings with two variants of the MCMC model composition ($\mathit{MC}^3$) algorithm.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS207 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Childhood Maltreatment and Adult Dispositional Mindfulness

Dispositional mindfulness has been conceptualized as both a trait and skill set for managing life stress. Levels of dispositional mindfulness appear to provide a meaningful barometer of emotional well-being and behavioral functioning. This chapter reviews selected literature regarding the potential effects of early life experience on the development of this important trait and coping skill. Empirical data regarding the developmental sources of this important psychological attribute has been surprisingly limited. Some prior research has implicated childhood maltreatment as disruptive to the development of this important coping skill. The present study examined the potential impact of six different forms of childhood maltreatment on dispositional mindfulness development. A number of parental relationship and resiliency protective factors were also added to the analysis. Survey respondents in this college sample (N = 978) completed indices of dispositional mindfulness, childhood maltreatment, parental relationship qualities, and resiliency factors. Respondents who described histories of sexual abuse, peer abuse, or sibling maltreatment showed lower levels of dispositional mindfulness. Parental temper was inversely related to dispositional mindfulness. Spirituality and larger childhood friendship circles provided favorable indicators. These results should encourage continued efforts to examine childhood maltreatment, early parent-child relationship qualities, and resiliency factors as potential sources of dispositional mindfulness development

Progressive insular cooperative genetic programming algorithm for multiclass classification

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsIn contrast to other types of optimisation algorithms, Genetic Programming (GP) simultaneously optimises a group of solutions for a given problem. This group is named population, the algorithm iterations are named generations and the optimisation is named evolution as a reference o the algorithm’s inspiration in Darwin’s theory on the evolution of species. When a GP algorithm uses a one-vs-all class comparison for a multiclass classification (MCC) task, the classifiers for each target class (specialists) are evolved in a subpopulation and the final solution of the GP is a team composed of one specialist classifier of each class. In this scenario, an important question arises: should these subpopulations interact during the evolution process or should they evolve separately? The current thesis presents the Progressively Insular Cooperative (PIC) GP, a MCC GP in which the level of interaction between specialists for different classes changes through the evolution process. In the first generations, the different specialists can interact more, but as the algorithm evolves, this level of interaction decreases. At a later point in the evolution process, controlled through algorithm parameterisation, these interactions can be eliminated. Thus, in the beginning of the algorithm there is more cooperation among specialists of different classes, favouring search space exploration. With elimination of cooperation, search space exploitation is favoured. In this work, different parameters of the proposed algorithm were tested using the Iris dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results showed that cooperation among specialists of different classes helps the improvement of classifiers specialised in classes that are more difficult to discriminate. Moreover, the independent evolution of specialist subpopulations further benefits the classifiers when they already achieved good performance. A combination of the two approaches seems to be beneficial when starting with subpopulations of differently performing classifiers. The PIC GP also presented great performance for the more complex Thyroid and Yeast datasets of the same repository, achieving similar accuracy to the best values found in literature for other MCC models.Diferente de outros algoritmos de otimiação computacional, o algoritmo de Programação Genética PG otimiza simultaneamente um grupo de soluções para um determinado problema. Este grupo de soluções é chamado população, as iterações do algoritmo são chamadas de gerações e a otimização é chamada de evolução em alusão à inspiração do algoritmo na teoria da evolução das espécies de Darwin. Quando o algoritmo GP utiliza a abordagem de comparação de classes um-vs-todos para uma classificação multiclasses (CMC), os classificadores específicos para cada classe (especialistas) são evoluídos em subpopulações e a solução final do PG é uma equipe composta por um especialista de cada classe. Neste cenário, surge uma importante questão: estas subpopulações devem interagir durante o processo evolutivo ou devem evoluir separadamente? A presente tese apresenta o algoritmo Cooperação Progressivamente Insular (CPI) PG, um PG CMC em que o grau de interação entre especialistas em diferentes classes varia ao longo do processo evolutivo. Nas gerações iniciais, os especialistas de diferentes classes interagem mais. Com a evolução do algoritmo, estas interações diminuem e mais tarde, dependendo da parametriação do algoritmo, elas podem ser eliminadas. Assim, no início do processo evolutivo há mais cooperação entre os especialistas de diferentes classes, o que favorece uma exploração mais ampla do espaço de busca. Com a eliminação da cooperação, favorece-se uma exploração mais local e detalhada deste espaço. Foram testados diferentes parâmetros do PG CPl utilizando o conjunto de dados iris do UCI Machine Learning Repository. Os resultados mostraram que a cooperação entre especialistas de diferentes classes ajudou na melhoria dos classificadores de classes mais difíceis de modelar. Além disso, que a evolução sem a interação entre as classes de diferentes especialidades beneficiou os classificadores quando eles já apresentam boa performance Uma combinação destes dois modos pode ser benéfica quando o algoritmo começa com classificadores que apresentam qualidades diferentes. O PG CPI também apresentou ótimos resultados para outros dois conjuntos de dados mais complexos o thyroid e o yeast, do mesmo repositório, alcançando acurácia similar aos melhores valores encontrados na literatura para outros modelos de CMC

An exploratory survey of factors affecting satisfaction with educational experiences for parents of children with Cystic Fibrosis

Consumer satisfaction has been studied extensively as it relates to service seeking behavior, positive perceptions of services rendered, and measurable benefit as a result of service delivery. Furthermore, numerous studies have explored the importance of a strong, collaborative home-school partnership for student success. Additionally, previous research has identified children with chronic illnesses as a special population frequently requiring individualized accommodations and modifications to promote success in the educational environment, and therefore testing the limits of the educational system to adequately meet their needs. Finally, research has described the common sequelae of Cystic Fibrosis, including wide-ranging physical, behavioral, and functional consequences. However, these various contributing factors have not yet been synthesized to inspect their impact on parent satisfaction with educational experiences for children with Cystic Fibrosis. The proposed study aims to characterize the demographics of parents of children with CF, describe their responses to questions regarding various aspects of satisfaction, and determine the predictive value of the survey questions for measuring parent satisfaction

The relationship between top management team – outside board conflict and outside board service involvement in high-tech start-ups

Corporate governance research has extensively studied the relationship between outside board characteristics and outside board involvement. We add to this literature by investigating the extent to which interactions between outside board members and the top management team (TMT) affect the functioning of the outside board. Building on conflict theory, our study shows how conflict between TMT and outside board is an important antecedent for outside board service involvement. Specifically, drawing from a hand-collected dataset of 70 high-tech start-ups in Belgium, we find that TMT – outside board task conflict is both directly and indirectly, i.e. through TMT – outside board relationship conflict, related to outside board service involvement

Precision Medicine: Viable Pathways to Address Existing Research Gaps

Precision Medicine (PM) seeks to customize medical treatments for patients based on measurable and identifiable characteristics. Unlike personalized medicine, this effort is not intended to result in tailored care for each patient. Instead, this effort seeks to improve overall care within the medical domain by shifting the focus from one-size-fits-all care to optimized care for specified subgroups. In order for the benefits of PM to be expeditiously realized, the diverse skills sets of the scientific community must be brought to bear on the problem. This research effort explores the intersection of quality engineering (QE) and healthcare to outline how existing methodologies within the QE field could support existing PM research goals. Specifically this work examines how to determine the value of patient characteristics for use in disease prediction models with select machine learning algorithms, proposes a method to incorporate patient risk into treatment decisions through the development of performance functions, and investigates the potential impact of incorrect assumptions on estimation methods used in optimization models