The Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project

Studies have already detected intensification of precipitation events consistent with climate change projections. Communities may have a window of opportunity to prepare, but information sufficiently quantified and localized to support adaptation programs is sparse: published literature is typically characterized by general resilience building or regional vulnerability studies. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC observed that adaptation can no longer be postponed pending the effective elimination of uncertainty. Methods must be developed that manage residual uncertainty, providing community leaders with decision-support information sufficient for implementing infrastructure adaptation programs. This study developed a local-scale and actionable protocol for maintaining historical risk levels for communities facing significant impacts from climate change and population growth. For a coastal watershed, the study assessed the capacity of the present stormwater infrastructure capacity for conveying expected peak flow resulting from climate change and population growth. The project transferred coupled-climate model projections to the culvert system, in a form understandable to planners, resource managers and decision-makers; applied standard civil engineering methods to reverse-engineer culverts to determine existing and required capacities; modeled the potential for LID methods to manage peak flow in lieu of, or combination with, drainage system upsizing; and estimated replacement costs using local and national construction cost data. The mid-21st century, most likely 25-year, 24-hour precipitation is estimated to be 35% greater than the TP-40 precipitation for the SRES A1b trajectory, and 64% greater than the TP-40 value for the SRES A1fi trajectory. 5% of culverts are already undersized for the TP-40 event to which they should have been designed. Under the most likely A1b trajectory, an additional 12% of culverts likely will be undersized, while under the most likely A1fi scenario, an additional 19% likely will be undersized. These conditions place people and property at greater risk than that historically acceptable from the TP-4025-year design storm. This risk level may be maintained by a long-term upgrade program, utilizing existing strategies to manage uncertainty and costs. At the upper-95% confidence limit for the A1fi 25-year event, 65% of culverts are adequately sized, and building the remaining 35%, and planned, culverts to thrice the cross-sectional area specified from TP-40 should provide adequate capacity through this event. Realizable LID methods can mitigate significant impacts from climate change and population growth, however effectiveness is limited for the more pessimistic climate change projections. Results indicate that uncertainty in coupled-climate model projections is not an impediment to adaptation. This study makes a significant contribution toward the generation of reliable and specific estimates of impacts from climate change, in support of programs to adapt civil infrastructures. This study promotes a solution to today\u27s arguably most significant challenge in civil infrastructure adaptation: translating the extensive corpus of adaptation theory and regional-scale impacts analyses into localscale action

Risk analysis of LPG tanks at the wildland-urban interface

In areas of wildland-urban interface (WUI), especially residential developments, it is very common to see liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanks, particularly with a higher ratio of propane, in surface installations serving homes. The most common tanks are between 1 and 5 m3 of capacity, but smaller ones of less than 1 m3 are more frequent. In case of accident, installations may be subject to fires and explosions, especially in those circumstances where legal and normative requirements allow very close exposure to flames from vegetable fuel near LPG tanks. In this project, it is intended to do a comprehensive diagnosis of the problem, addressing the compilation of information on real risk scenarios in historical fires. First, a preliminary presentation of the properties and characteristics of liquefied petroleum gas will be exposed. Its physical and chemical properties, production methodology, pressure and temperature diagrams and important considerations will be defined when using this type of substances in a storage tank of a certain volume. Next, a review of the situation of the existence of LPG tanks in the urban forest interfaces will be exposed. In this case, the main accidents caused by problems with the storage of LPG will be analyzed taking into account the relevance of BLEVE events in this type of incidents. To do this, the main scenarios that could take place in the event of a fire will be presented. Next, the existing legislation on the storage of LPG in these environments in some Mediterranean countries will be studied. In order to develop a comprehensive analysis, the main safety measures and distances will be considered, as well as the awareness of the possibility of vegetation material in the vicinity of LPG storage tanks, which is the main problem that will arise in a possible BLEVE scenario in case of fire. To finalize and facilitate understanding, a comparative table will be included with the aim of visualizing the main advantages and legislative deficiencies between the different countries. Following, the state of the art in terms of modelling LPG accidents at the WUI will be reviewed. Trying to simulate and predict this type of scenarios, it will see the models normally chosen to obtain the tolerable values selected and the answers obtained in each case. Finally, several fire scenarios will be simulated by means of a CFD tool (FDS, Fire Dynamics Simulator). In these simulations, the wind velocity and the distance of the combustible vegetal mass to the tank will be controlled in a WUI fire in which there is a tank of fixed dimensions. The temperature and the heat flow in each of the scenarios will be obtained, and the differences among the location of the sensors and the characteristics of the scenario will be analyzed. As a conclusion, it has been observed that there is a great amount of variables that are not contemplated by the regulatory organisms and that the existing legislation does not guarantee the safety of the population in this type of environment. From the simulations results, variables as temperature should be studied for further characterizations

How the health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women affects neonatal outcomes: findings of system dynamics modelling in Pakistan

Background: Limited studies have explored how health-seeking behaviour during pregnancy through to delivery affect neonatal outcomes. We modelled health-seeking behaviour across urban and rural settings in Pakistan, where poor neonatal outcomes persist with wide disparities. Methods and findings: A system dynamics model was developed and parameterised. Following validation tests, the model was used to determine neonatal mortality for pregnant women considering their decisions to access, refuse and switch antenatal care services in four provider sectors: public, private, traditional and charitable. Four health-seeking scenarios were tested across different pregnancy trimesters. Health-seeking behaviour in different subgroups by geographical locations and social network effect was modelled. The largest reduction in neonatal mortality was achieved with antenatal care provided by skilled providers in public, private or charitable sectors, combined with the use of institutional delivery. Women’s social networks had strong influences on if, when and where to seek care. Interventions by Lady Health Workers had a minimal impact on health-seeking behaviour and neonatal outcomes after trimester 1. Optimal benefits were achieved for urban women when antenatal care was accessed within trimester 2, but for rural women within trimester 1. Antenatal care access delayed to trimester 3 had no protective impact on neonatal mortality. Conclusions: System dynamics modelling enables capturing the complexity of health-seeking behaviours and impact on outcomes, informing intervention design, implementation of targeted policies and uptake of services specific to urban/rural settings considering structural enablers/barriers to access, cultural contexts and strong social network influences

Water Integration for Squamscott Exeter (WISE): Preliminary Integrated Plan, Final Technical Report

This document introduces the goals, background and primary elements of an Integrated Plan for the Lower Exeter and Squamscott River in the Great Bay estuary in southern New Hampshire. This Plan will support management of point (wastewater treatment plant) and nonpoint sources in the communities of Exeter, Stratham and Newfields. The Plan also identifies and quantifies the advantages of the use of green infrastructure as a critical tool for nitrogen management and describes how collaboration between those communities could form the basis for an integrated plan. The Plan will help communities meet new wastewater and proposed stormwater permit requirements. Critical next steps are need before this Plan will fulfill the 2018 Nitrogen Control Plan requirements for Exeter and proposed draft MS4 requirements for both Stratham and Exeter. These next steps include conducting a financial capability assessment, development of an implementation schedule and development of a detailed implementation plan. The collaborative process used to develop this Plan was designed to provide decision makers at the local, state and federal levels with the knowledge they need to trust the Plan’s findings and recommendations, and to enable discussions between stakeholders to continue the collaborative process. This Plan includes the following information to guide local response to new federal permit requirements for treating and discharging stormwater and wastewater: Sources of annual pollutant load quantified by type and community; Assessment and evaluation of different treatment control strategies for each type of pollutant load; Assessment and evaluation of nutrient control strategies designed to reduce specific types of pollutants; Evaluation of a range of point source controls at the wastewater treatment facility based on regulatory requirements; Costs associated with a range of potential control strategies to achieve reduction of nitrogen and other pollutants of concern; and A preliminary implementation schedule with milestones for target load reductions using specific practices for specific land uses at points in time; Recommendations on how to implement a tracking and accounting program to document implementation; Design tools such as BMP performance curves for crediting the use of structural practices to support nitrogen accounting requirements; and Next Steps for how to complete this Plan