Random load fluctuations and collapse probability of a power system operating near codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation

For a power system operating in the vicinity of the power transfer limit of its transmission system, effect of stochastic fluctuations of power loads can become critical as a sufficiently strong such fluctuation may activate voltage instability and lead to a large scale collapse of the system. Considering the effect of these stochastic fluctuations near a codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation, we explicitly calculate the autocorrelation function of the state vector and show how its behavior explains the phenomenon of critical slowing-down often observed for power systems on the threshold of blackout. We also estimate the collapse probability/mean clearing time for the power system and construct a new indicator function signaling the proximity to a large scale collapse. The new indicator function is easy to estimate in real time using PMU data feeds as well as SCADA information about fluctuations of power load on the nodes of the power grid. We discuss control strategies leading to the minimization of the collapse probability.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submission to IEEE PES General Meeting 201

Security of electric power systems : cascading outage analysis, interdiction model and resilience to natural disasters

textSecure electric power system operation is key to social warfare. However, recent years have seen numerous natural disasters and terrorist attacks that threat the grid security. This dissertation summarizes the efforts to develop a model to analyze cascading outages, an interdiction model to analyze worst-case attacks on power grids, and research on grid resilience to natural disasters. The developed cascading outage analysis model uses outage checkers to systematically simulate the system behavior after an initial disturbance, and calculate the potential cascading outage path and electric load shedding. The new interdiction model combines the previously developed medium-term attack-defense model with the short-term cascading outage analysis model to find worst-case terrorist attack. The dissertation also reviews the research on power grid resilience to natural disaster, and develops a framework to simulate the impacts of hurricanes.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

Graph Theoretical Analysis of the Dynamic Lines of Collaboration Model for Disruption Response

The Dynamic Lines of Collaboration (DLOC) model was developed to address the Network-to-Network (N2N) service challenge found in e-Work networks with pervasive connectivity. A variant of the N2N service challenge found in emerging Cyber-Physical Infrastructures (CPI) networks is the collaborative disruption response (CDR) operation under cascading failures. The DLOC model has been validated as an appropriate modelling tool to aid the design of disruption responders in CPIs by eliciting the dynamic relation among the service team when handling service requests from clients in the CPI network

Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis of Cascading Outages in Power Systems

Interconnected power systems are prone to cascading outages leading to large-area blackouts. Modeling, simulation, analysis, and mitigation of cascading outages are still challenges for power system operators and planners.Firstly, the interaction model and interaction graph proposed by [27] are demonstrated on a realistic Northeastern Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) power system, identifying key links and components that contribute most to the propagation of cascading outages. Then a multi-layer interaction graph for analysis and mitigation of cascading outages is proposed. It provides a practical, comprehensive framework for prediction of outage propagation and decision making on mitigation strategies. It has multiple layers to respectively identify key links and components, which contribute the most to outage propagation. Based on the multi-layer interaction graph, effective mitigation strategies can be further developed. A three-layer interaction graph is constructed and demonstrated on the NPCC power system.Secondly, this thesis proposes a novel steady-state approach for simulating cascading outages. The approach employs a power flow-based model that considers static power-frequency characteristics of both generators and loads. Thus, the system frequency deviation can be calculated under cascading outages and control actions such as under-frequency load shedding can be simulated. Further, a new AC optimal power flow model considering frequency deviation (AC-OPFf) is proposed to simulate remedial control against system collapse. Case studies on the two-area, IEEE 39-bus, and NPCC power systems show that the proposed approach can more accurately capture the propagation of cascading outages when compared with a conventional approach using the conventional power flow and AC optimal power flow models.Thirdly, in order to reduce the potential risk caused by cascading outages, an online strategy of critical component-based active islanding is proposed. It is performed when any component belonging to a predefined set of critical components is involved in the propagation path. The set of critical components whose fail can cause large risk are identified based on the interaction graph. Test results on the NPCC power system show that the cascading outage risk can be reduced significantly by performing the proposed active islanding when compared with the risk of other scenarios without active islanding

Cascading Failures and Contingency Analysis for Smart Grid Security

The modern electric power grid has become highly integrated in order to increase the reliability of power transmission from the generating units to end consumers. In addition, today’s power system are facing a rising appeal for the upgrade to a highly intelligent generation of electricity networks commonly known as Smart Grid. However, the growing integration of power system with communication network also brings increasing challenges to the security of modern power grid from both physical and cyber space. Malicious attackers can take advantage of the increased access to the monitoring and control of the system and exploit some of the inherent structural vulnerability of power grids. Therefore, determining the most vulnerable components (e.g., buses or generators or transmission lines) is critically important for power grid defense. This dissertation introduces three different approaches to enhance the security of the smart grid. Motivated by the security challenges of the smart grid, the first goal of this thesis is to facilitate the understanding of cascading failure and blackouts triggered by multi-component attacks, and to support the decision making in the protection of a reliable and secure smart grid. In this work, a new definition of load is proposed by taking power flow into consideration in comparison with the load definition based on degree or network connectivity. Unsupervised learning techniques (e.g., K-means algorithm and self-organizing map (SOM)) are introduced to find the vulnerable nodes and performance comparison is done with traditional load based attack strategy. Second, an electrical distance approach is introduced to find the vulnerable branches during contingencies. A new network structure different than the original topological structure is formed based on impedance matrix which is referred as electrical structure. This structure is pruned to make it size compatible with the topological structure and the common branches between the two different structures are observed during contingency analysis experiments. Simulation results for single and multiple contingencies have been reported and the violation of line limits during single and multiple outages are observed for vulnerability analysis. Finally, a cyber-physical power system (CPS) testbed is introduced as an accurate cyber-physical environment in order to observe the system behavior during malicious attacks and different disturbance scenarios. The application areas and architecture of proposed CPS testbed have been discussed in details. The testbed’s efficacy is then evaluated by conducting real-time cyber attacks and exploring the impact in a physical system. The possible mitigation strategies are suggested for defense against the attack and protect the system from being unstable

Predicting Electrical Faults in Power Distribution Network

Electricity is becoming increasingly important in modern civilization, and as a result, the emphasis on and use of power infrastructure is gradually expanding. Simultaneously, investment and distribution modes are shifting from the large-scale centralized generation of electricity and sheer consumption to decentralized generators and extremely sophisticated clients. This transformation puts further strain on old infrastructure, necessitating significant expenditures in future years to ensure a consistent supply. Subsequent technical and prediction technologies can help to maximize the use of the current grid while lowering the probability of faults. This study discusses some of the local grid difficulties as well as a prospective maintenance and failure probabilistic model. To provide an effective and convenient power source to consumers, a high Volta protects and maintains under fault conditions. Most of the fault identification and localization approaches rely on real and reactive power converter observations of electronic values. This can be seen in metrics and ground evaluations derived via internet traffic. This paper provides a thorough examination of the mechanisms for error detection, diagnosis, and localization in overhead lines. The proposal is then able to make suggestions about the ways that can be incorporated to predict foreseen faults in the electrical network. The three classifiers, Random Forest, XGBoost and Decision tree are producing high accuracies, while Logistic Regression and SVM are producing realistic accuracy results

Real-time Prediction of Cascading Failures in Power Systems

Blackouts in power systems cause major financial and societal losses, which necessitate devising better prediction techniques that are specifically tailored to detecting and preventing them. Since blackouts begin as a cascading failure (CF), an early detection of these CFs gives the operators ample time to stop the cascade from propagating into a large-scale blackout. In this thesis, a real-time load-based prediction model for CFs using phasor measurement units (PMUs) is proposed. The proposed model provides load-based predictions; therefore, it has the advantages of being applicable as a controller input and providing the operators with better information about the affected regions. In addition, it can aid in visualizing the effects of the CF on the grid. To extend the functionality and robustness of the proposed model, prediction intervals are incorporated based on the convergence width criterion (CWC) to allow the model to account for the uncertainties of the network, which was not available in previous works. Although this model addresses many issues in previous works, it has limitations in both scalability and capturing of transient behaviours. Hence, a second model based on recurrent neural network (RNN) long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble is proposed. The RNN-LSTM is added to better capture the dynamics of the power system while also giving faster responses. To accommodate for the scalability of the model, a novel selection criterion for inputs is introduced to minimize the inputs while maintaining a high information entropy. The criteria include distance between buses as per graph theory, centrality of the buses with respect to fault location, and the information entropy of the bus. These criteria are merged using higher statistical moments to reflect the importance of each bus and generate indices that describe the grid with a smaller set of inputs. The results indicate that this model has the potential to provide more meaningful and accurate results than what is available in the previous literature and can be used as part of the integrated remedial action scheme (RAS) system either as a warning tool or a controller input as the accuracy of detecting affected regions reached 99.9% with a maximum delay of 400 ms. Finally, a validation loop extension is introduced to allow the model to self-update in real-time using importance sampling and case-based reasoning to extend the practicality of the model by allowing it to learn from historical data as time progresses

Cascading Outages Detection and Mitigation Tool to Prevent Major Blackouts

Due to a rise of deregulated electric market and deterioration of aged power system infrastructure, it become more difficult to deal with the grid operating contingencies. Several major blackouts in the last two decades has brought utilities to focus on development of Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC) systems. Availability of common measurement time reference as the fundamental requirement of WAMPAC system is attained by introducing the Phasor Measurement Units, or PMUs that are taking synchronized measurements using the GPS clock signal. The PMUs can calculate time-synchronized phasor values of voltage and currents, frequency and rate of change of frequency. Such measurements, alternatively called synchrophasors, can be utilized in several applications including disturbance and islanding detection, and control schemes. In this dissertation, an integrated synchrophasor-based scheme is proposed to detect, mitigate and prevent cascading outages and severe blackouts. This integrated scheme consists of several modules. First, a fault detector based on electromechanical wave oscillations at buses equipped with PMUs is proposed. Second, a system-wide vulnerability index analysis module based on voltage and current synchrophasor measurements is proposed. Third, an islanding prediction module which utilizes an offline islanding database and an online pattern recognition neural network is proposed. Finally, as the last resort to interrupt series of cascade outages, a controlled islanding module is developed which uses spectral clustering algorithm along with power system state variable and generator coherency information