How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis

Exchange rate, Crawling-bands, Currency boards, Macroeconomic sustainability, Latin America

Visually activating pathogen disgust: A new instrument for studying the behavioral immune system

The emotion of disgust plays a key role in the behavioral immune system, a set of disease-avoidance processes constituting a frontline defense against pathogenic threats. In the context of growing research interest in disgust, as well as recognition of its role in several psychiatric disorders, there is need for an improved understanding of behavioral triggers of disgust and for adequate techniques to both induce disgust in experimental settings and to measure individual variability in disgust sensitivity. In this study, we sought to address these issues using a multi-stage, bottom-up approach that aimed first to determine the most widespread and effective elicitors of disgust across several cultures. Based on exploratory factor analysis of these triggers, revealing four main components of pathogen-related disgust, we then generated a novel visual stimulus set of 20 images depicting scenes of highly salient pathogen risk, along with paired control images that are visually comparable but lack the disgust trigger. We present a series of validation analyses comparing our new stimulus set (the Culpepper Disgust Image Set, C-DIS) with the most commonly used pre-existing set, a series of 7 images devised by Curtis et al. (2004). Disgust scores from participants who rated the two image sets were positively correlated, indicating cross-test concordance, but results also showed that our pathogen-salient images elicited higher levels of disgust and our control images elicited lower levels of disgust. These findings suggest that the novel image set is a useful and effective tool for use in future research, both in terms of priming disgust and for measuring individual differences in disgust sensitivity

Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openess are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.

Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Last Thirty Years

In this paper, we examine external, monetary, and structural determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. We find that reserve holdings and openess to be the most important determinants of reserve volatility. These results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve ubncertainty as a crises indicator.

Alpine Glaciology: An Historical Collaboration between Volunteers and Scientists and the Challenge Presented by an Integrated Approach

European Alpine glaciology has a long tradition of studies and activities, in which researchers have often relied on the field work of some specialized volunteer operators. Despite the remarkable results of this cooperation, some problems in field data harmonization and in covering the whole range of monitored glaciers are still present. Moreover, dynamics of reduction, fragmentation and decline, which in recent decades characterize Alpine glaciers, make more urgent the need to improve spatial and temporal monitoring, still maintaining adequate quality standards. Scientific field monitoring activities on Alpine glaciers run parallel to a number of initiatives by individuals and amateur associations, keepers of alternative, experiential and para-scientific knowledge of the glacial environment. Problems of harmonization, coordination, recruitment and updating can be addressed with the help of a collaborative approach—citizen science-like—in which the scientific coordination guarantees information quality and web 2.0 tools operate as mediators between expert glaciologists and non-expert contributors. This paper gives an overview of glaciological information currently produced in the European Alpine region, representing it in an organized structure, functional to the discussion. An empowering solution is then proposed, both methodological and technological, for the integration of multisource data. Its characteristics, potentials and problems are discussed

Economic indicators and country risk appraisal

Bank loans ; Developing countries ; Risk

Relating sovereign debt ratings to different practices of exchange rate policy: an empirical analysis

JEL classification: E42, G15In this thesis it is developed a research project whose objective is to identify links between the exchange rate policy of a country - fixed, intermediate and floating - and its long-term sovereign external debt, measured by sovereign ratings and assigned by Moody's and the S&P notations agencies, in two different economic periods: 1998-2002 (crisis period) and 2003-2007 (period of global recovery). Based on a cross-section data for 81 countries, with a multivariate linear regression model and making use of three numerical scales for converting the sovereign ratings, namely the linear, the exponential and the logistic, the results show that exchange rate policy of a country largely determines its sovereign rating assigned by rating agencies. The intermediate exchange systems penalizes more the external debt quality indicators, while sovereign rating of a country is very favoured with floating exchange rate regime. The intermediate role is played by fixed exchange systems. In general, for the crisis period analysis (May 2003), relative to the floating system, a fixed regime is penalized by 4 rating levels and an intermediate is penalized by 7 levels while the floating exchange rate regime ensures approximately 8 rating levels. In May 2008 (for the recovery period analysis), these penalties are aggravated: relative to the floating system, a fixed regime is penalized by 7 levels and an intermediate is penalized by 11 levels. The contribution of the floating exchange rate regime did not much change from one period to another, being about 8 levels in May 2003 and 9 levels in May 2008. It is also demonstrated the high explanatory capacity of the model, especially in periods of crisis, when the evaluation criteria is more carefully defined. About 85% of the 19 regressors shown in this model are significant, for the period of crisis. In the recovery period, this percentage dropped to 58%. However, beyond the exchange rate regimes, the economic indicators confirm their high capacity in the determination of sovereign ratings, in the two analysed periods. The socio-political factors, when combined with the exchange rate policy, contribute significantly in determining the ratings, especially in the recovery period. For a country that has a history of default can see their sovereign rating worsened in more 2 levels (May 2003) or in more 3 levels (May 2008) when it follows an intermediate exchange rate regime.Nesta dissertação é desenvolvido um projeto de pesquisa cujo objetivo é identificar as ligações entre a política cambial de um país - fixa, intermédia e flexível - e a sua dívida soberana externa de longo prazo, medida pelo ratings soberanos atribuídos pelas duas maiores agências de notação financeira, Moody's e Standard and Poors, em dois diferentes períodos económicos: 1998-2002 (período de crise) e 2003-2007 (período de recuperação global). Com base em dados cross-section de 81 países, num modelo de regressão linear múltipla e fazendo uso de três escalas numéricas para converter os ratings soberanos, nomeadamente as escalas linear, exponencial e logística, os resultados mostram que a política cambial de um país determina em grande medida o seu rating soberano atribuído pelas agências de rating. O regime cambial intermédio penaliza mais os indicadores de qualidade da dívida externa, enquanto que a avaliação da dívida soberana externa de um país é muito favorecida com a prática de um regime de câmbios flexíveis. O papel "intermédio" é desempenhado pela política cambial fixa. Em geral, na análise do período de crise (maio de 2003), em relação ao regime de câmbios flexíveis, um regime fixo é penalizado em 4 níveis de rating e um intermédio é penalizado em 7 níveis, enquanto que o regime de câmbios flexíveis assegura cerca de 8 níveis de ratings. Em maio de 2008 (para a análise do período de recuperação), aquelas penalizações são agravadas: relativamente ao regime flutuante, um regime fixo é penalizado em 7 níveis e o intermédio é penalizado em 11 níveis. A contribuição do regime de câmbio flexível não muda muito de um período para outro, sendo, desta vez, igual a 9 níveis. Também é demonstrado a elevada capacidade explicativa do modelo, especialmente em períodos de crise, altura em que os critérios de avaliação são mais cuidadosamente definidos. Cerca de 85% dos 19 regressores apresentados neste modelo são significativos, para o período de crise. No período de recuperação, esta percentagem caiu para 58%. No entanto, além dos regimes cambiais, os indicadores económicos confirmam sua elevada capacidade na determinação de ratings soberanos, nos dois períodos analisados. Os fatores sociopolíticos, quando associados com a política cambial, contribuem significativamente na determinação dos ratings soberanos, sobretudo no período de recuperação. Para um país que já tenha registado uma situação de default, poderá ver o seu rating soberano agravado em mais 2 níveis (Maio de 2003) ou em mais 3 níveis (Maio de 2008), quando praticar um regime cambial intermédio

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Tunisia: Empirical assessment based on an application of the autoregressive distributed Lag model

In recent years, the changing economic and political environment in Tunisia led to a renewed interest on the drivers of foreign direct investment, given its potential important gains. In this study, we investigated the impact of various factors over the period 1980-2012. In doing this, three categories of determinants were considered: economic, political and sociocultural variables. Empirical findings drawn from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach show that variation in foreign direct investment inflow in the short-run and long-run is affected by the majority of variables considered, except exchange rate, urban population and gross domestic savings. As a matter of policy, it is essential that government should continue its efforts to create a macroeconomic environment which is attractive to foreign direct investment