What are the important landscape components for habitat selection of the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana in northern limit of range?

Ortolan buntings Emberiza hotulana have undergone one of the most severe population declines of any European farmland bird over the last thirty years. The aim of this study was to find out which habitat features, including crop characteristics, ortolan bunting prefers in Estonia in breeding areas. This study compared currently occupied and unoccupied ortolan bunting territories. Occupied areas contained significantly more tall broadleaf trees, crop types, structural elements (trees, bushes, roads, overhead power lines and buildings) and spring wheat, but also had lower crop drilling densities. Ortolan bunting territories were best described by a logistic regression model containing six variables: amount of structural point elements, length of power lines, amount of tall broadleaf trees and number of different crops had a positive effect, whereas crop density and area of autumn-sown crops had a negative effect. Based on the findings of this study, the following conservation measures can be recommended: lower crop densities; spring rather than autumn-sown crops; small-field systems containing a variety of crops; scattered scrub preserved or planted; habitat patches of permanent grasslands, hedges and tall broadleaf trees retained within the agricultural landscape

Mixed-Integer Convex Nonlinear Optimization with Gradient-Boosted Trees Embedded

Decision trees usefully represent sparse, high dimensional and noisy data. Having learned a function from this data, we may want to thereafter integrate the function into a larger decision-making problem, e.g., for picking the best chemical process catalyst. We study a large-scale, industrially-relevant mixed-integer nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem involving both gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions mitigating risk. This mixed-integer optimization problem with convex penalty terms broadly applies to optimizing pre-trained regression tree models. Decision makers may wish to optimize discrete models to repurpose legacy predictive models, or they may wish to optimize a discrete model that particularly well-represents a data set. We develop several heuristic methods to find feasible solutions, and an exact, branch-and-bound algorithm leveraging structural properties of the gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions. We computationally test our methods on concrete mixture design instance and a chemical catalysis industrial instance

Long memory or shifting means? A new approach and application to realised volatility

It is now recognised that long memory and structural change can be confused because the statistical properties of times series of lengths typical of financial and econometric series are similar for both models. We propose a new set of methods aimed at distinguishing between long memory and structural change. The approach, which utilises the computational efficient methods based upon Atheoretical Regression Trees (ART), establishes through simulation the bivariate distribution of the fractional integration parameter, d, with regime length for simulated fractionally integrated series. This bivariate distribution is then compared with the data for the time series. We also combine ART with the established goodness of fit test for long memory series due to Beran. We apply these methods to the realized volatility series of 16 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We show that in these series the value of the fractional integration parameter is not constant with time. The mathematical consequence of this is that the definition of H self-similarity is violated. We present evidence that these series have structural breaks.Long-range dependence; Strong dependence; Global dependence; Hurst phenomena

Learning by stochastic serializations

Complex structures are typical in machine learning. Tailoring learning algorithms for every structure requires an effort that may be saved by defining a generic learning procedure adaptive to any complex structure. In this paper, we propose to map any complex structure onto a generic form, called serialization, over which we can apply any sequence-based density estimator. We then show how to transfer the learned density back onto the space of original structures. To expose the learning procedure to the structural particularities of the original structures, we take care that the serializations reflect accurately the structures' properties. Enumerating all serializations is infeasible. We propose an effective way to sample representative serializations from the complete set of serializations which preserves the statistics of the complete set. Our method is competitive or better than state of the art learning algorithms that have been specifically designed for given structures. In addition, since the serialization involves sampling from a combinatorial process it provides considerable protection from overfitting, which we clearly demonstrate on a number of experiments.Comment: Submission to NeurIPS 201

Estimating Tropical Forest Structure Using a Terrestrial Lidar

Forest structure comprises numerous quantifiable biometric components and characteristics, which include tree geometry and stand architecture. These structural components are important in the understanding of the past and future trajectories of these biomes. Tropical forests are often considered the most structurally complex and yet least understood of forested ecosystems. New technologies have provided novel avenues for quantifying biometric properties of forested ecosystems, one of which is LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar). This sensor can be deployed on satellite, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and terrestrial platforms. In this study we examined the efficacy of a terrestrial lidar scanner (TLS) system in a tropical forest to estimate forest structure. Our study was conducted in January 2012 at La Selva, Costa Rica at twenty locations in a predominantly undisturbed forest. At these locations we collected field measured biometric attributes using a variable plot design. We also collected TLS data from the center of each plot. Using this data we developed relative vegetation profiles (RVPs) and calculated a series of parameters including entropy, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), number of layers and plant area index to develop statistical relationships with field data.We developed statistical models using a series of multiple linear regressions, all of which converged on significant relationships with the strongest relationship being for mean crown depth (r2 = 0.88, p \u3c 0.001, RMSE = 1.04 m). Tree density was found to have the poorest significant relationship (r2 = 0.50, p \u3c 0.01, RMSE = 153.28 n ha-1). We found a significant relationship between basal area and lidar metrics (r2 = 0.75, p \u3c 0.001, RMSE = 3.76 number ha-1). Parameters selected in our models varied, thus indicating the potential relevance of multiple features in canopy profiles and geometry that are related to field-measured structure. Models for biomass estimation included structural canopy variables in addition to height metrics. Our work indicates that vegetation profiles from TLS data can provide useful information on forest structure