Modeling of employment structural transformations

The article presents the modelling of structural transformations in the employment of the population by the algorithm: 1) forming a database and establishing the type of mathematical model; 2) identification of variables; 3) exploring the forms of correlation between factor features and the resulting variable; 4) parameterization of data; 5) drawing up the regression equation; 6) economic interpretation of the results, in particular, the calculation of elasticity coefficients; 8) validation of the model for adequacy (calculation of errors of approximation, correlation coefficients and determination); 9) validation of the model for statistical significance (Fisher criterion and Student’s t-test); 10) forecasting: calculation of confidence intervals. It is formed the statistical research base of the level dependence of the Ukrainian population employment (selected regions) on a number of factors (share of full-time workers with higher education in % to accounting number; growth rate of labor productivity; growth rate of average wages; capital investment index; coverage ratio). The research was made due to data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine in the period of 2000—2016 in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. The dynamics of growth of selected factors for each region for the period 2000— 2016 is considered. It is established and determined the economic and mathematical models of the level dependence of the Ukrainian population employment (region) on the influence of selected factors for Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Vinnitsa regions. The comparative analysis of the obtained results is carried out. It is established that the determinants that influence the dynamics of employment growth for the industrial regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions are the factors reflecting the share of full-time employees with higher education, growth rate of labor productivity and the coefficient of export coverage. It is made a comparative analysis of the built regional models (Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions) with a mathematical model of multiple regression for the analysis of structural changes in the employment of the population of Ukrain

Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective

A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities

Applied partial and general equilibrium models used to examine trade policy are almost universally sensitive to trade elasticities. Indeed, the Armington elasticity, the degree of substitution between domestic and imported goods, is a key behavioral parameter that drives the quantitative, and sometimes the qualitative, results that policymakers use. While standard transparent approaches to econometric estimation of these elasticities have been offered for the last 30 years, the estimates are viewed as too small by many trade economists. A few robust findings emerge from the econometric literature: (1) more disaggregate analyses find higher elasticities, (2) long-run estimates are higher than short-run estimates, and (3) time series analyses generally find lower elasticities relative to cross-sectional studies. We offer simulation results to illustrate the sensitivity of general equilibrium models to Armington elasticites. We conclude with remarks on the current challenges that remain in determining these important parameters.Computable general equilibrium; International Trade; Armington; elasticity

Estimating Labor and Fiscal Impacts using Louisiana Community Impact Model: Comparing Panel Model and Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS)

Labor market, COMPAS model, Forecasting performance, 3sls, panel, Community/Rural/Urban Development, R1,

Модельний аспект оцінки ефективності організації управління та мотивації персоналу

This paper proposes methodological aspects of evaluation of organization efficiency of personnel management and motivation on the bases of application of economic and mathematical tools by implementing a three-component algorithmic model. The structural divisions heads’ work effectiveness evaluation is carried out on the basis of econometric systems of structural equations that allow you to rank personality, communicative, innovative, social and corporate managers characteristics that have the greatest impact on the overall performance indicators of the bank staff among which are considered amount of attracted funds; assessment of employee's compliance with the standard; activity efficiency (number of contracts); contribution to development. The obtained modeling results confirm the hypothesis that structural unit managers need to work on the development of their communicative, innovative, personal and social characteristics. Models for analyzing the personnel motivation factors on the bases of the methodology of multivariate statistical factor analysis with initial list of 13 main indicators of staff motivation are proposed; as a result, we set up the aggregated factors that reflect the properties of several motivational components such as financial, social incentives and medical insurance for employees. The model for estimating influence of motivation factors on results of bank's activity on the bases of nonlinear econometric functions is constructed. The regression equation of the motivation factors influence on the bank total profit is obtained. The proposed model toolkit for evaluation of efficiency of management and staff motivation will allow the bank's management to improve motivation and incentives mechanisms in order to raise efficiency of stuff productivity in direction of increasing bank profitability and competitiveness.У статті запропоновано методологічні аспекти оцінки ефективності організації управління персоналом та мотивації на основі застосування економіко-математичного інструментарію шляхом реалізації трьохкомпонентної алгоритмічної моделі. Здійснено оцінку ефективності праці керівників структурних підрозділів на основі економетричних систем структурних рівнянь, що дозволяють ранжувати особистісні, комунікативні, інноваційні, соціальні та корпоративні характеристики, які в найбільшій мірі впливають на загальні показники ефективності роботи персоналу банку, серед яких розглядаються обсяг залучених коштів; оцінка працівника щодо відповідності стандарту; ефективність діяльності (кількість контрактів); вклад у розвиток. Отримані результати підтверджують гіпотезу, що керівникам структурних підрозділів треба працювати над розвитком своїх комунікативних, інноваційних, особистих та соціальних характеристик. Запропоновані моделі аналізу факторів мотивації персоналу за методологією багатовимірного статистичного факторного аналізу на основі вихідного переліку з 13 основних показників мотивації персоналу, у результаті чого сформовані агреговані фактори, що відбивають властивості декількох мотиваційних компонентів, а саме: матеріального стимулювання робітників, соціального стимулювання та охорони здоров’я персоналу. Побудовано модель оцінки впливу факторів мотивації на результати діяльності банку на основі нелінійних економетричних функцій. Отримано регресійне рівняння впливу факторів мотивації на загальний прибуток банку.Запропонований модельний інструментарій оцінювання ефективності управління та мотивації персоналу дозволить керівництву банку вдосконалити механізми стимулювання та заохочення працівників з метою підвищення ефективності їх праці в напрямі підвищення прибутковості та конкурентоспроможності банку

Land Use Change and Ecosystem Valuation in North Georgia

A model of land allocation at the aggregate watershed level was developed assuming profit/net benefit maximization under risk neutrality. The econometric land use model was analyzed as an equation by equation SURE model as all the independent variables were the same for both equations. In analyzing effect of land use change on water quality, we took year 2005 as our baseline and postulated three land use scenarios. We applied Benefit Transfer techniques to value water quality changes resulting from land use change and estimated lower bounds for WTP to improve water quality to meet the FCB criterion for drinking water supply and fishing waters and BOD (DO) criteria for fishing waters. Water quality modeling revealed that land use change would result in increased runoff, and associated increase in FCB and BOD/DO violations. But the BOD/DO violations could be curtailed by managing urban growth as evidenced absence of BOD violations in the managed growth scenario. Our study finds there may be problems of FCB under all postulated future land use scenarios. The findings also support existing literature that there are problems with FCB violation in the study area at the moment. Finally, it seems that the people of UCRB would be willing to pay a lower bound value between USD 15,785,740 and USD 16,141,230 per year to create and maintain quality standards for fishing and drinking water supply.Ecosystem, Economic value, North Georgia, land use, land use change, fish, water quality, structural time series, willingness to pay, benefit transfer, forecasting, vector autoregression, Upper Chattahoochee River, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Econometrics: A bird's eye view

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledge and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks and forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of the "real time econometrics". This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments