Searching for a trail of evidence in a maze

Consider a graph with a set of vertices and oriented edges connecting pairs of vertices. Each vertex is associated with a random variable and these are assumed to be independent. In this setting, suppose we wish to solve the following hypothesis testing problem: under the null, the random variables have common distribution N(0,1) while under the alternative, there is an unknown path along which random variables have distribution $N(\mu,1)$, $\mu> 0$, and distribution N(0,1) away from it. For which values of the mean shift $\mu$ can one reliably detect and for which values is this impossible? Consider, for example, the usual regular lattice with vertices of the form $$\{(i,j):0\le i,-i\le j\le i and j has the parity of i\}$$ and oriented edges $(i,j)\to (i+1,j+s)$, where $s=\pm1$. We show that for paths of length $m$ starting at the origin, the hypotheses become distinguishable (in a minimax sense) if $\mu_m\gg1/\sqrt{\log m}$, while they are not if $\mu_m\ll1/\log m$. We derive equivalent results in a Bayesian setting where one assumes that all paths are equally likely; there, the asymptotic threshold is $\mu_m\approx m^{-1/4}$. We obtain corresponding results for trees (where the threshold is of order 1 and independent of the size of the tree), for distributions other than the Gaussian and for other graphs. The concept of the predictability profile, first introduced by Benjamini, Pemantle and Peres, plays a crucial role in our analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS526 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Heterogeneous Sensor Signal Processing for Inference with Nonlinear Dependence

Inferring events of interest by fusing data from multiple heterogeneous sources has been an interesting and important topic in recent years. Several issues related to inference using heterogeneous data with complex and nonlinear dependence are investigated in this dissertation. We apply copula theory to characterize the dependence among heterogeneous data. In centralized detection, where sensor observations are available at the fusion center (FC), we study copula-based fusion. We design detection algorithms based on sample-wise copula selection and mixture of copulas model in different scenarios of the true dependence. The proposed approaches are theoretically justified and perform well when applied to fuse acoustic and seismic sensor data for personnel detection. Besides traditional sensors, the access to the massive amount of social media data provides a unique opportunity for extracting information about unfolding events. We further study how sensor networks and social media complement each other in facilitating the data-to-decision making process. We propose a copula-based joint characterization of multiple dependent time series from sensors and social media. As a proof-of-concept, this model is applied to the fusion of Google Trends (GT) data and stock/flu data for prediction, where the stock/flu data serves as a surrogate for sensor data. In energy constrained networks, local observations are compressed before they are transmitted to the FC. In these cases, conditional dependence and heterogeneity complicate the system design particularly. We consider the classification of discrete random signals in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), where, for communication efficiency, only local decisions are transmitted. We derive the necessary conditions for the optimal decision rules at the sensors and the FC by introducing a hidden random variable. An iterative algorithm is designed to search for the optimal decision rules. Its convergence and asymptotical optimality are also proved. The performance of the proposed scheme is illustrated for the distributed Automatic Modulation Classification (AMC) problem. Censoring is another communication efficient strategy, in which sensors transmit only informative observations to the FC, and censor those deemed uninformative . We design the detectors that take into account the spatial dependence among observations. Fusion rules for censored data are proposed with continuous and discrete local messages, respectively. Their computationally efficient counterparts based on the key idea of injecting controlled noise at the FC before fusion are also investigated. In this thesis, with heterogeneous and dependent sensor observations, we consider not only inference in parallel frameworks but also the problem of collaborative inference where collaboration exists among local sensors. Each sensor forms coalition with other sensors and shares information within the coalition, to maximize its inference performance. The collaboration strategy is investigated under a communication constraint. To characterize the influence of inter-sensor dependence on inference performance and thus collaboration strategy, we quantify the gain and loss in forming a coalition by introducing the copula-based definitions of diversity gain and redundancy loss for both estimation and detection problems. A coalition formation game is proposed for the distributed inference problem, through which the information contained in the inter-sensor dependence is fully explored and utilized for improved inference performance

Change-point Problem and Regression: An Annotated Bibliography

The problems of identifying changes at unknown times and of estimating the location of changes in stochastic processes are referred to as the change-point problem or, in the Eastern literature, as disorder . The change-point problem, first introduced in the quality control context, has since developed into a fundamental problem in the areas of statistical control theory, stationarity of a stochastic process, estimation of the current position of a time series, testing and estimation of change in the patterns of a regression model, and most recently in the comparison and matching of DNA sequences in microarray data analysis. Numerous methodological approaches have been implemented in examining change-point models. Maximum-likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation, isotonic regression, piecewise regression, quasi-likelihood and non-parametric regression are among the methods which have been applied to resolving challenges in change-point problems. Grid-searching approaches have also been used to examine the change-point problem. Statistical analysis of change-point problems depends on the method of data collection. If the data collection is ongoing until some random time, then the appropriate statistical procedure is called sequential. If, however, a large finite set of data is collected with the purpose of determining if at least one change-point occurred, then this may be referred to as non-sequential. Not surprisingly, both the former and the latter have a rich literature with much of the earlier work focusing on sequential methods inspired by applications in quality control for industrial processes. In the regression literature, the change-point model is also referred to as two- or multiple-phase regression, switching regression, segmented regression, two-stage least squares (Shaban, 1980), or broken-line regression. The area of the change-point problem has been the subject of intensive research in the past half-century. The subject has evolved considerably and found applications in many different areas. It seems rather impossible to summarize all of the research carried out over the past 50 years on the change-point problem. We have therefore confined ourselves to those articles on change-point problems which pertain to regression. The important branch of sequential procedures in change-point problems has been left out entirely. We refer the readers to the seminal review papers by Lai (1995, 2001). The so called structural change models, which occupy a considerable portion of the research in the area of change-point, particularly among econometricians, have not been fully considered. We refer the reader to Perron (2005) for an updated review in this area. Articles on change-point in time series are considered only if the methodologies presented in the paper pertain to regression analysis

Statistical modelling of algorithms for signal processing in systems based on environment perception

One cornerstone for realising automated driving systems is an appropriate handling of uncertainties in the environment perception and situation interpretation. Uncertainties arise due to noisy sensor measurements or the unknown future evolution of a traffic situation. This work contributes to the understanding of these uncertainties by modelling and propagating them with parametric probability distributions

Hyperspectral Imagery Target Detection Using Improved Anomaly Detection and Signature Matching Methods

This research extends the field of hyperspectral target detection by developing autonomous anomaly detection and signature matching methodologies that reduce false alarms relative to existing benchmark detectors, and are practical for use in an operational environment. The proposed anomaly detection methodology adapts multivariate outlier detection algorithms for use with hyperspectral datasets containing tens of thousands of non-homogeneous, high-dimensional spectral signatures. In so doing, the limitations of existing, non-robust, anomaly detectors are identified, an autonomous clustering methodology is developed to divide an image into homogeneous background materials, and competing multivariate outlier detection methods are evaluated for their ability to uncover hyperspectral anomalies. To arrive at a final detection algorithm, robust parameter design methods are employed to determine parameter settings that achieve good detection performance over a range of hyperspectral images and targets, thereby removing the burden of these decisions from the user. The final anomaly detection algorithm is tested against existing local and global anomaly detectors, and is shown to achieve superior detection accuracy when applied to a diverse set of hyperspectral images. The proposed signature matching methodology employs image-based atmospheric correction techniques in an automated process to transform a target reflectance signature library into a set of image signatures. This set of signatures is combined with an existing linear filter to form a target detector that is shown to perform as well or better relative to detectors that rely on complicated, information-intensive, atmospheric correction schemes. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed using a range of target materials in both woodland and desert hyperspectral scenes

Economic Structural Change: Analysis and Forecasting

In modern economic model building, structural change is a key concept. Economic growth and events like the oil price shocks have impacts on the economic system such that models with fixed structure are illusions. Considerable progress has been made in the last few years concerning statistical and econometric tools. Methods for identification of structural change, models that are robust to changes and assimilate their effects, and adequate forecasting techniques have been developed. Under the auspices of IIASA a very active community of statisticians and econometricians has made a very influential effort in this area. The purpose of this volume is to document these activities, to present new methods and developments in this area, and to demonstrate applications. Particular weight is given to nonparametric and robust methods for identification of and modeling under structural change, a Bayesian approach to forecast combination, and time-varying parameter cointegration. This book has four parts: (1) Identification of structural change, (2) Model building in the presence of structural change, (3) Forecasting in the presence of structural change, and (4) Economic modeling and the use of empirical data. The book provides an up-to-date status report on the field and should stimulate applications of the methods in empirical work as well as further research

Syndromic surveillance: reports from a national conference, 2003

Overview of Syndromic Surveillance -- What is Syndromic Surveillance? -- Linking Better Surveillance to Better Outcomes -- Review of the 2003 National Syndromic Surveillance Conference - Lessons Learned and Questions To Be Answered -- -- System Descriptions -- New York City Syndromic Surveillance Systems -- Syndrome and Outbreak Detection Using Chief-Complaint Data - Experience of the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance Project -- Removing a Barrier to Computer-Based Outbreak and Disease Surveillance - The RODS Open Source Project -- National Retail Data Monitor for Public Health Surveillance -- National Bioterrorism Syndromic Surveillance Demonstration Program -- Daily Emergency Department Surveillance System - Bergen County, New Jersey -- Hospital Admissions Syndromic Surveillance - Connecticut, September 2001-November 2003 -- BioSense - A National Initiative for Early Detection and Quantification of Public Health Emergencies -- Syndromic Surveillance at Hospital Emergency Departments - Southeastern Virginia -- -- Research Methods -- Bivariate Method for Spatio-Temporal Syndromic Surveillance -- Role of Data Aggregation in Biosurveillance Detection Strategies with Applications from ESSENCE -- Scan Statistics for Temporal Surveillance for Biologic Terrorism -- Approaches to Syndromic Surveillance When Data Consist of Small Regional Counts -- Algorithm for Statistical Detection of Peaks - Syndromic Surveillance System for the Athens 2004 Olympic Games -- Taming Variability in Free Text: Application to Health Surveillance -- Comparison of Two Major Emergency Department-Based Free-Text Chief-Complaint Coding Systems -- How Many Illnesses Does One Emergency Department Visit Represent? Using a Population-Based Telephone Survey To Estimate the Syndromic Multiplier -- Comparison of Office Visit and Nurse Advice Hotline Data for Syndromic Surveillance - Baltimore-Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Area, 2002 -- Progress in Understanding and Using Over-the-Counter Pharmaceuticals for Syndromic Surveillance -- -- Evaluation -- Evaluation Challenges for Syndromic Surveillance - Making Incremental Progress -- Measuring Outbreak-Detection Performance By Using Controlled Feature Set Simulations -- Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems - Design of an Epidemic Simulation Model -- Benchmark Data and Power Calculations for Evaluating Disease Outbreak Detection Methods -- Bio-ALIRT Biosurveillance Detection Algorithm Evaluation -- ESSENCE II and the Framework for Evaluating Syndromic Surveillance Systems -- Conducting Population Behavioral Health Surveillance by Using Automated Diagnostic and Pharmacy Data Systems -- Evaluation of an Electronic General-Practitioner-Based Syndromic Surveillance System -- National Symptom Surveillance Using Calls to a Telephone Health Advice Service - United Kingdom, December 2001-February 2003 -- Field Investigations of Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance Signals - New York City -- Should We Be Worried? Investigation of Signals Generated by an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System - Westchester County, New York -- -- Public Health Practice -- Public Health Information Network - Improving Early Detection by Using a Standards-Based Approach to Connecting Public Health and Clinical Medicine -- Information System Architectures for Syndromic Surveillance -- Perspective of an Emergency Physician Group as a Data Provider for Syndromic Surveillance -- SARS Surveillance Project - Internet-Enabled Multiregion Surveillance for Rapidly Emerging Disease -- Health Information Privacy and Syndromic Surveillance SystemsPapers from the second annual National Syndromic Surveillance Conference convened by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the New York Academy of Medicine, and the CDC in New York City during Oct. 23-24, 2003. Published as the September 24, 2004 supplement to vol. 53 of MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.1571461

Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995)

The files on this record represent the various databases that originally composed the CD-ROM issue of "Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding" database, which is now part of the Dudley Knox Library's Abstracts and Selected Full Text Documents on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995) Collection. (See Calhoun record https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/57364 for further information on this collection and the bibliography). Due to issues of technological obsolescence preventing current and future audiences from accessing the bibliography, DKL exported and converted into the three files on this record the various databases contained in the CD-ROM. The contents of these files are: 1) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_xls.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.xls: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format; RDFA_Glossary.xls: Glossary of terms, in Excel 97-2003 Workbookformat; RDFA_Biographies.xls: Biographies of leading figures, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format]; 2) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_csv.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.TXT: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in CSV format; RDFA_Glossary.TXT: Glossary of terms, in CSV format; RDFA_Biographies.TXT: Biographies of leading figures, in CSV format]; 3) RDFA_CompleteBibliography.pdf: A human readable display of the bibliographic data, as a means of double-checking any possible deviations due to conversion

Application of Optimization in Production, Logistics, Inventory, Supply Chain Management and Block Chain

The evolution of industrial development since the 18th century is now experiencing the fourth industrial revolution. The effect of the development has propagated into almost every sector of the industry. From inventory to the circular economy, the effectiveness of technology has been fruitful for industry. The recent trends in research, with new ideas and methodologies, are included in this book. Several new ideas and business strategies are developed in the area of the supply chain management, logistics, optimization, and forecasting for the improvement of the economy of the society and the environment. The proposed technologies and ideas are either novel or help modify several other new ideas. Different real life problems with different dimensions are discussed in the book so that readers may connect with the recent issues in society and industry. The collection of the articles provides a glimpse into the new research trends in technology, business, and the environment

1995-1996 Louisiana Tech University Catalog

The Louisiana Tech University Catalog includes announcements and course descriptions for courses offered at Louisiana Tech University for the academic year of 1995-1996.https://digitalcommons.latech.edu/university-catalogs/1019/thumbnail.jp