Statistical Rate Event Analysis with Elite Sample Selection Scheme

Accurately estimating the failure region of rare events for memory-cell and analog circuit blocks under process variations is a challenging task. As the first part of the thesis, author propose a new statistical method, called EliteScope to estimate the circuit failure rates in rare event regions and to provide conditions of parameters to achieve targeted per- formance. The new method is based on the iterative blockade framework to reduce the number of samples. But it consists of two new techniques to improve existing methods. First, the new approach employs an elite learning sample selection scheme, which can con- sider the effectiveness of samples and well-coverage for the parameter space. As a result, it can reduce additional simulation costs by pruning less effective samples while keeping the accuracy of failure estimation. Second, the EliteScope identifies the failure regions in terms of parameter spaces to provide a good design guidance to accomplish the performance target. It applies variance based feature selection to find the dominant parameters and then determine the in-spec boundaries of those parameters. We demonstrate the advantage of our proposed method using several memory and analog circuits with different number of process parameters. Experiments on four circuit examples show that EliteScope achieves a significant improvement on failure region estimation in terms of accuracy and simulation cost over traditional approaches. The 16-bit 6T-SRAM column example also demonstrate that the new method is scalable for handling large problems with large number of process variables

Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure

A Practical Guide to Surface Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulations

This review article is intended as a practical guide for newcomers to the field of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations, and specifically to lattice KMC simulations as prevalently used for surface and interface applications. We will provide worked out examples using the kmos code, where we highlight the central approximations made in implementing a KMC model as well as possible pitfalls. This includes the mapping of the problem onto a lattice and the derivation of rate constant expressions for various elementary processes. Example KMC models will be presented within the application areas surface diffusion, crystal growth and heterogeneous catalysis, covering both transient and steady-state kinetics as well as the preparation of various initial states of the system. We highlight the sensitivity of KMC models to the elementary processes included, as well as to possible errors in the rate constants. For catalysis models in particular, a recurrent challenge is the occurrence of processes at very different timescales, e.g. fast diffusion processes and slow chemical reactions. We demonstrate how to overcome this timescale disparity problem using recently developed acceleration algorithms. Finally, we will discuss how to account for lateral interactions between the species adsorbed to the lattice, which can play an important role in all application areas covered here.Comment: This document is the final Author's version of a manuscript that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication in Frontiers in Chemistry. To access the final edited and published work see https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fchem.2019.00202/abstrac

Open TURNS: An industrial software for uncertainty quantification in simulation

The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems and to answer tighter regulatory processes (security, safety, environmental control, and health impacts, etc.) have led to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take uncertainties into account when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. Therefore, a generic methodology has emerged from the joint effort of several industrial companies and academic institutions. EDF R&D, Airbus Group and Phimeca Engineering started a collaboration at the beginning of 2005, joined by IMACS in 2014, for the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk 'N Statistics. OpenTURNS addresses the specific industrial challenges attached to uncertainties, which are transparency, genericity, modularity and multi-accessibility. This paper focuses on OpenTURNS and presents its main features: openTURNS is an open source software under the LGPL license, that presents itself as a C++ library and a Python TUI, and which works under Linux and Windows environment. All the methodological tools are described in the different sections of this paper: uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and metamodeling. A section also explains the generic wrappers way to link openTURNS to any external code. The paper illustrates as much as possible the methodological tools on an educational example that simulates the height of a river and compares it to the height of a dyke that protects industrial facilities. At last, it gives an overview of the main developments planned for the next few years

Aging concrete structures: a review of mechanics and concepts

The safe and cost-efficient management of our built infrastructure is a challenging task considering the expected service life of at least 50 years. In spite of time-dependent changes in material properties, deterioration processes and changing demand by society, the structures need to satisfy many technical requirements related to serviceability, durability, sustainability and bearing capacity. This review paper summarizes the challenges associated with the safe design and maintenance of aging concrete structures and gives an overview of some concepts and approaches that are being developed to address these challenges